By Philip RuckerWashington Post Staff WriterMonday, December 29, 2008; A04
HONOLULU, Dec. 28 -- President-elect Barack Obama's economic stimulus plan will include an immediate tax cut for middle-class families, and the incoming administration hopes to enact permanent tax cuts soon thereafter, a senior adviser to Obama said Sunday.
David Axelrod said the stimulus package will be implemented soon, given the worsening economy, and could cost $675 billion to $775 billion. The massive recovery plan will seek to create or save 3 million jobs, he said in appearances Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" and CBS's "Face the Nation."
"Look, we feel it's important that middle-class people get some relief now," Axelrod said on "Meet the Press." Obama has "promised a middle-class tax cut," he added. "This package will include a portion of that tax cut that will become part of the permanent tax cut he'll have in his upcoming budget."
Giving people more spending money will "help get our economy going again," Axelrod said. He also said he is hopeful that the recovery plan will be ready for Obama to sign soon after his Jan. 20 inauguration.
"Obviously, the sooner the better," Axelrod said on "Face the Nation." "I don't think Americans can wait. People are suffering, our economy is sliding, and we need to act. And so our message to Congress is to work on it with all deliberate speed."
Obama, in the second week of a vacation in Hawaii, continues to work on his economic plan, aides said. He is considering immediate tax cuts of $1,000 for couples and $500 for individuals, which would be delivered through reduced tax withholding from paychecks, a transition aide said. That plan could cost about $140 billion over the next two years, the aide said.
Axelrod said that the incoming administration plans to propose permanent tax cuts in its next budget but that officials have not determined the form of those cuts. They are likely to be based on Obama's campaign proposal, which said that families earning less than $250,000 would see their taxes remain the same or decrease.
Asked by NBC's David Gregory whether Obama will raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans by reversing President Bush's tax cuts, Axelrod said Bush's plan is "something that we plainly can't afford moving forward."
"Whether it expires or whether we repeal it a little bit early, we'll determine later, but it's going to go," Axelrod said. "It has to go."
Obama's economic stimulus plan is expected to include billions in new spending on infrastructure projects, aid to beleaguered state governments and programs to create jobs. Axelrod said creating jobs is an essential part of the plan.
"We want to do it in a way that leaves a lasting footprint, by investing in energy and health-care projects, and refurbishing the nation's classrooms and labs and libraries so our kids can compete, and rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges and waterways," he said on "Face the Nation." "And, in this way, we're not only just -- we're not only creating work, but we're laying the foundation for the future of our economy."
Without further ado, here is my list of 20 surprises for 2009. In doing so, we start the new year with the surprising story that ended the old year, the alleged Madoff Ponzi scheme.
2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected. President Obama, under the aegis of Larry Summers, initiates a massive and unprecedented Marshall Plan to turn the housing market around. His plan includes several unconventional measures: Among other items is a $25,000 tax credit on all home purchases as well as a large tax credit and other subsidies to the financial intermediaries that provide the mortgage loans and commitments. This, combined with a lowering in mortgage rates (and a boom in refinancing), the bankruptcy/financial restructuring of three public homebuilders (which serves to lessen new home supply) and a flip-flop in the benefits of ownership vs. the merits of renting, trigger a second-quarter 2009 improvement in national housing activity, but the rebound is uneven. While the middle market rebounds, the high-end coastal housing markets remain moribund, as they impacted adversely by the Wall Street layoffs and the carnage in the hedge fund industry.
3. The nation's commercial real estate markets experience only a shallow pricing downturn in the first half of 2009. President Obama's broad-ranging housing legislation incorporates tax credits and other unconventional remedies directed toward nonresidential lending and borrowing. Banks become more active in office lending (as they do in residential real estate lending), and the commercial mortgage-backed securities market never experiences anything like the weakness exhibited in the 2007 to 2008 market. Office REIT shares, similar to housing-related equities, rebound dramatically, with several doubling in the new year's first six months.
4. The U.S. economy stabilizes sooner than expected. After a decidedly weak January-to-February period (and a negative first-quarter 2009 GDP reading, which is similar to fourth-quarter 2008's black hole), the massive and creative stimulus instituted by the newly elected President begins to work. Banks begin to lend more aggressively, and lower interest rates coupled with aggressive policy serve to contribute to an unexpected refinancing boom. By March, personal consumption expenditures begin to rebound slowly from an abysmal holiday and post-holiday season as energy prices remain subdued, and a shallow recovery occurs far sooner than many expect. Second-quarter corporate profits growth comfortably beats the downbeat and consensus forecasts as inflation remains tame, commodity prices are subdued, productivity rebounds and labor costs are well under control.
5. The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year's first half. Housing-related stocks (title insurance, home remodeling, mortgage servicers and REITs) exhibit outsized and market-leading gains during the January-to-June interval. Heavily shorted retail and financial stocks also advance smartly. The year's first-half market rise of about 20% is surprisingly orderly throughout the six-month period, as volatility moves back down to pre-2008 levels, but rising domestic interest rates, still weak European economies and a halt to China's economic growth limit the stock market's progress in the back half of the year.
6. A second quarter "growth scare" bursts the bubble in the government bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note moves steadily higher from 2.10% at year-end to over 3.50% by early fall, putting a ceiling on the first-half recovery in the U.S. stock market, which is range-bound for the remainder of the year, settling up by approximately 20% for the 12-month period ending Dec. 31, 2009. Foreign central banks, faced with worsening domestic economies, begin to shy away from U.S. Treasury auctions and continue to diversify their reserve assets. By year-end, the U.S. dollar represents less than 60% of worldwide reserve assets, down from 2008's year-end at 62% and down from 70% only five years ago. China's 2008 economic growth proves to be greatly exaggerated as unemployment surprisingly rises in early 2009 and the rate of growth in China's real GDP moves towards zero by the second quarter. Unlike more developed countries, the absence of a social safety net turns China's fiscal economic policy inward and aggressively so. Importantly, China not only is no longer a natural buyer of U.S. Treasuries but it is forced to dip into it's piggy bank of foreign reserves, adding significant upside pressure to U.S. note and bond yields.
7. Commodities markets remain subdued. Despite an improving domestic economy, a further erosion in the Western European and Chinese economies weighs on the world's commodities markets. Gold never reaches $1,000 an ounce and trades at $500 an ounce at some point during the year. (Gold-related shares are among 2009's worst stock market performers.) The price of crude oil briefly rallies early in the year after a step up in the violence in the Middle East but trades in a broad $25 to $65 range for all of 2009 as President Obama successfully introduces aggressive and meaningful legislation aimed at reducing our reliance on imported oil. The price of gasoline briefly breaches $1.00 a gallon sometime in the year. The U.S. dollar outperforms most of the world's currencies as the U.S. regains its place as an economic and political powerhouse.
8. Capital spending disappoints further. Despite an improving economy, large-scale capital spending projects continue to be delayed in favor of maintenance spending. Technology shares continue to lag badly, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD Quote - Cramer on AMD - Stock Picks) files bankruptcy.
9. The hedge fund and fund of funds industries do not recover in 2009. The Madoff fraud, poor hedge fund performance and renewed controversy regarding private equity marks (particularly among a number of high-profile colleges like Harvard and Yale) prove to be a short-term death knell to the alternative investments industry. As well, the gating of redemption requests disaffects high net worth, pension plan, endowment and University investors to both traditional hedge funds and to private equity (which suffers from a series of questionable and subjective marking of private equity deal pricings at several leading funds). Three of the 10 largest hedge funds close their doors as numerous hedge funds reduce their fee structures in order to retain investors. Faced with an increasingly uncertain investor base, several big hedge funds merge with like-sized competitors in a quickening hedge fund industry consolidation. By year-end, the number of hedge funds is down by well over 50%.
10. Mutual fund redemptions from 2008 reverse into inflows in 2009. The mutual fund industry does not suffer the same fate as the hedge fund industry. In fact, a renaissance of interest in mutual funds (especially of a passive/indexed kind) develops. Fidelity is the largest employer of the graduating classes (May 2009) at the Wharton and Harvard Business Schools; it goes public in late 2009 in the year's largest IPO. Shares of T. Rowe Price (TROW Quote - Cramer on TROW - Stock Picks) and AllianceBernstein (AB Quote - Cramer on AB - Stock Picks) enjoy sharp price gains in the new year. Bill Miller retires from active fund management at Legg Mason (LM Quote - Cramer on LM - Stock Picks).
11. State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom. The municipal bond market seizes up in the face of poor fiscal management, revenue shortfalls and rising budgets at state and local levels. Municipal bond yields spike higher. A new Municipal TARP totaling $2 trillion is introduced in the year's second half.
12. The automakers and the UAW come to an agreement over wages. Under the pressure of late first-quarter bankruptcies, the UAW agrees to bring compensation in line with non-U.S. competitors and exchanges a reduction in retiree health care benefits for equity in the major automobile manufacturers.
13. The new administration replaces SEC Commissioner Cox. Upon his inauguration, President Obama immediately replaces SEC Commissioner Christopher Cox with Yale professor Dr. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld. The new SEC commissioner recommends that the uptick rule be reinstated and undertakes a yearlong investigation/analysis into the impact of Ultra Bear ETFs on the market. Later in the year, the administration recommends that the SEC be abolished and folded into the Treasury Department. Dr. Sonnenfeld returns to Yale University.
14. Large merger of equals deals multiply. Economies of scale and mergers of equals become the M&A mantras in 2009, and niche investment banking boutiques such as Evercore (EVR Quote - Cramer on EVR - Stock Picks), Lazard (LAZ Quote - Cramer on LAZ - Stock Picks) and Greenhill (GHL Quote - Cramer on GHL - Stock Picks) flourish. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup announce a merger of equals, but Goldman maintains management control of the combined entity. Morgan Stanley (MS Quote - Cramer on MS - Stock Picks) acquires Blackstone. Disney (DIS Quote - Cramer on DIS - Stock Picks) purchases Carnival (CCL Quote - Cramer on CCL - Stock Picks). Microsoft (MSFT Quote - Cramer on MSFT - Stock Picks) acquires Yahoo! (YHOO Quote - Cramer on YHOO - Stock Picks) at $5 a share.
15. Focus shifts for several media darlings. Though continuing on CNBC, Jim "El Capitan" Cramer announces his own reality show that will air on NBC in the fall. At the time his reality show premieres, he also writes a new book, Stay Mad for Life: How to Prosper From a Buy/Hold Investment Strategy. Dr. Nouriel Roubini continues to talk depression, but the price of his speaking engagements are cut in half. He writes a new book, The New Depression: How Leverage's Long Tail Will Result in Bread Lines. "Kudlow & Company's" Larry Kudlow proclaims that it's time to harvest the "mustard seeds" of growth and, in an admission of the Democrats' growing economic successes, officially leaves the ranks of the Republican party and returns to his Democratic roots. Yale's Dr. Robert Shiller adopts a variant and positive view on housing and the economy, joining the bullish ranks, and writes a new book, The New Financial Order: Economic Opportunity in the 21st Century.
16. The Internet becomes the tactical nuke of the digital age. The Web is invaded on many levels as governments, consumers and investors freak out. First, an act of cyberterrorism occurs that compromises the security of a major government (similar to the attacks this year emanating from the Chinese military aimed at the German Chancellery) or uses DoS against media and e-commerce sites. Second, a major data center will fail and will be far worse than the 1988 Cornell student incident that infected about 5% of the Unix boxes on the early Internet. Third, cybercrime explodes exponentially in 2008. Financial markets will be exposed to hackers using elaborate fraud schemes (such as liquidating and sweeping online brokerage accounts and shorting stocks, then employing a denial-of-service attack against the company). Fourth, Storm Trojan reappears. (Same as last year.)
17. A handful of sports franchises file bankruptcy. Three Major League Baseball teams fail in the middle of the season and seek government bailouts in order to complete the season. The Wilpon family, victimized by Madoff, sells the New York Mets to SAC's Steve Cohen. The New York Yankees are undefeated in the 2009 season, and Madonna and A-Rod have a child together (out of wedlock).
18. The Fox Business Network closes. Racked by large losses, Rupert Murdoch abandons the Fox Business Network. CNBC rehires several prior employees and expands its programming into complete weekend coverage. Two popular CNBC commentators "go mainstream" and become regulars on NBC news programs.
19. Old, leveraged media implode. The worlds of leverage and old media collide in a massive flameout of previous leveraged deals. Univision and Clear Channel go bankrupt. The New York Times (NYT Quote - Cramer on NYT - Stock Picks) teeters financially.
20. The Middle East's infrastructure build-out is abruptly halted owing to "market conditions." Lower oil prices, weakening European economies and a broad overexpansion wreak havoc with the Middle East's markets and economies.
Doug Kass is the author of The Edge, a blog on RealMoney Silver that features real-time shorting opportunities on the market.
(Obama marches in Chicago's 2003 St. Patrick's Day parade with the Lawn Rangers, foreshadowing the zany troupe's role in his presidential inaugural parade next month. - Photo courtesy of the World Famous Lawn Rangers of Amazing Arcola)
They aren't politically correct and they aren't very presidential. But somehow, the World Famous Lawn Rangers from Amazing Arcola (Illinois) - a longtime staple of beer-drenched St. Patty's Day parades in America's heartland - have secured a spot in President-elect Barack Obama's inaugural parade.
Pushing mowers and wielding toilet plungers and broomsticks, the Lawn Rangers have entertained rowdy crowds from the St. Patrick's Day parade in Chicago and the Indy 500 parade in Indianapolis to the Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix and the Holiday Bowl parade in San Diego. They've also participated in countless community parades throughout the Midwest, including Arcola's Broom Corn Festival parade, where they first marched 28 years ago, bonded by their only talent: pushing mowers.
And now, they'll get a chance to wow the millions of Americans expected to descend on the nation's capital for Obama's inauguration next month.
"We're greatly honored," the zany troupe's co-founder, Pat Monahan, tells the Sleuth, having been chosen above hundreds of other applicants. "I have to think it was diversity."
Sure, if you call middle-aged white guys diverse. Though, to be fair, the Lawn Rangers and their "Banner Babes" - who will be called "Banner Abes" in the inaugural parade, in keeping with Obama's Lincoln theme - now range in age from 21 to 80. And they include union workers, lawyers and business people alike.
They usually decorate their mowers with Lazy-Boy recliners, beer kegs and the like. But for Obama's inaugural parade, they're toning down their act - quite a bit. Never fear, they'll still have plenty of the corny shtick that made them famous.
Monahan says his 50 or so fellow Lawn Rangers (whose ranks include humorist Dave Barry) plan to honor Obama with "a few tricks" that will meet Secret Service standards. While he wants to keep most of them a surprise for Jan. 20, he did give us a few hints of what to expect in their synchronized Obama-centric routine down Pennsylvania Avenue.
And yes, the act will still involve toilet plungers, broomsticks and banners. The Lawn Rangers will still wear their signature dusters, cowboy hats and masks. And their motto will remain the same: "You're only young once but you can always be immature."
"We have a mower with an owl on it, a plastic owl; it'll say, 'Obama is wise,'" Monahan says. Another mower has hands coming from underneath it, grabbing the starter. That one has a sign on it that says "Self Starter." (Cue the oohing and aahing of ecstatic Lawn Rangers fans. "Oh, honey, isn't that cute? Get it? Self Starter!")
Besides their diversity, the real reason why the World Famous Lawn Rangers from Arcola were chosen to march in the inaugural parade may well have something to do with the time they coaxed Obama to grab a toilet plunger and march with them in Chicago's St. Patrick's Day Parade in 2003. What a candidate won't do when he's running for a Senate seat in Illinois! (Just ask Rod Blagojevich.)
You can see the Lawn Rangers in actionin this video and in this tribute to the World Famous Lawn Rangers. But as the Champaign-Urbana News-Gazette points out, since securing a spot in the inaugural parade, most videos of Lawn Rangers have "suddenly disappeared from YouTube."
So don't forget to bring your camcorders on inauguration day.
With GOP Sen. Norm Coleman’s campaign signaling it will contest the results of the Minnesota Senate race , it appears that Minnesota will be without one of its two senators as the 111th Congress convenes next month. The Canvassing Board is prepared to declare a winner by January 6—the same day the Senate is sworn in. But Coleman’s campaign has said the vote can’t be be certified if there's a post-election contest.. With the Senate hesitant to involve itself in the race, it looks like Coleman’s seat will remain vacant until the election is officially resolved. But the state's sitting senator, Democrat Amy Klobuchar, is now calling for the Senate to provisionally seat the Canvassing Board’s declared winner, until the results are officially certified. Democrat Al Franken currently leads Coleman by 46 votes -- with as many as 1,400 absentee ballots left to count. From the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:
Regarding the length of a vacancy, Klobuchar said she believes there is still "a good possibility" that the Canvassing Board will finish up by Jan. 6 and even a better chance that Minnesota will have a new senator a week or so later. "If the Canvassing Board declares a winner, that should be our senator," she said, even if a court challenge were to follow. "[The Senate] could seat a senator pending the litigation." Her view of a possible provisional winner is shared by Fred Morrison, a professor of constitutional law at the University of Minnesota. Morrison said the Senate could tentatively seat Franken, for example, if he comes out of the Canvassing Board process with a lead that would require Coleman to prevail in court on nearly all of his disputed claims to win. "The Senate could say ... we will seat Franken pending the final result," he said.
The last Sunday of the year was a quiet one on the network’s morning talk shows, with David Axelrod, President-elect Barack Obama’s political adviser, looking ahead to the new administration. Regarding the new administration’s stimulus plan, Mr. Axelrod said that the exact dollar amount Mr. Obama will seek has not yet been determined. “We’ve talked about a package from $675 billion to $775 billion,” he said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “One thing I think everyone agrees on, economists from left to right, is that we have to do something very large,” he said. The president-elect also intends to follow through quickly on his promise for tax relief for most Americans, Mr. Axelrod said. As for repealing the Bush tax cut for the wealthiest Americans, he said that whether it was repealed early or allowed to expire as scheduled at the end of 2010, the tax cut would eventually disappear. “It’s going to go, it has to go,” he said.
DUBLIN, Ind. — Former Senator Tom Daschle, whom President-elect Barack Obama has called the “lead architect” of the new administration’s efforts to expand health insurance and rein in medical costs, attended a community meeting Monday where he got an earful about expenses that were too high and coverage that was too little.
Dolly Sweet, 79, said she beat breast cancer 20 years ago but was now battling lung cancer without the medicine her doctor had prescribed. Ms. Sweet told Mr. Daschle that after covering her radiation treatment, Medicare would not pay for follow-up treatment with the drug, Tarceva, which would have cost $32,000 a year.
“Then what happened?” Mr. Daschle asked.
“I’m still here,” she replied. “You always look over your shoulder and see someone else who’s worse off.”
The gathering here in this small eastern Indiana town was one of thousands on health care being held around the country at the behest of the Obama transition, and the first attended by Mr. Daschle, whom Mr. Obama has chosen to be secretary of health and human services and director of the new White House Office of Health Reform.
Mr. Daschle was joined at the meeting, which was held at the town’s firehouse, by several dozen other people. Among them were doctors and administrators from Reid Hospital in nearby Richmond, who told of patients who were flooding the emergency room there because they did not have primary care doctors or insurance coverage.
“Our population hasn’t grown, yet our emergency department census has more than doubled,” Dr. Michael Baldwin, the department’s director, said of changes over the last 24 years. “Everyone used to have his own doctor. Now little more than half do.”
Dr. Joseph Fouts, one of the area’s few general practitioners, said he dealt nearly every day with patients who had found jobs carrying health benefits but who were denied coverage because of what insurers determined to be pre-existing conditions. In a recent case, Dr. Fouts said, a child of one such person was denied coverage for a cold prescription because he had a cold last year.
After listening for nearly 90 minutes, Mr. Daschle said the system could be changed by citizens’ active participation.
“When we combine all the stories we heard in this small town of Dublin and multiply that by 300 million people, we can begin to imagine the scope of the problem,” he said. “But I’m hopeful that the country has come together to say: ‘Enough already. We have to fix this.’ ”
Representative Rahm Emanuel initiated another contact with Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich today - this one to formally resign his House seat.
In a letter to Mr. Blagojevich, Mr. Emanuel, the incoming White House chief of staff, said he would officially give up his seat representing the north side of Chicago and some near suburbs as of Friday, clearing the way for a special election to replace him.
“As sons of immigrants to this country, you and I have a deep appreciation for the opportunities America provides to those who are willing to work hard and sacrifice for their children,” wrote Mr. Emanuel, who won the seat in 2002. “As a member of the next administration in Washington, I will strive to maintain and expand that opportunity for all families, because the chance to work hard and build a better life is the principle that unites all Americans.”
Mr. Emanuel’s contacts with the governor have come under scrutiny in the investigation of whether Mr. Blagojevich sought rewards for naming a replacement to the Senate seat being vacated by President-elect Barack Obama. But an internal review by Mr. Obama’s team of the discussions between the two found them to be minimal and not inappropriate. Mr. Emanuel has also been told that he is not a subject of the investigation by federal investigators, who interviewed him earlier this month and reviewed the contents of a least one taped call with the governor.
The congressman, who is abroad on vacation, also recorded an automated phone call for his constituents thanking them for the opportunity to be the congressman from the district, which has previously been represented by Mr. Blagojevich and before that by Dan Rostenkowski. Though Mr. Emanuel gave up a future shot at House speaker in stepping down, he has not ruled out another try at elective office at some point and he clearly wanted to leave his post on a positive note.
The timing of the special election will be up to the governor, who is under siege over the Senate inquiry. Earlier, there had been talk of holding it simultaneously with a special election to the fill the Senate seat to limit the extra expense.
The House seat representing the Fifth District is virtually certain to remain Democratic and has attracted significant interest from local politicians.
Police officers from across the country are being mobilized to help Washington manage crowds for Barack Obama’s inauguration, but the New York Police Department, the biggest and one of the closest and most experienced, will not be among them.
The reason stems from a misunderstanding seven years ago after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
The District of Columbia has asked 96 localities to send a total of 4,000 officers to help with crowd control along the parade route on Jan. 20, when it expects more than 1.5 million people in the nation’s capital. Those officers will augment the district’s Metropolitan Police Department force of about 4,000.
These 8,000 officers are only part of a 60-agency security force, the largest ever assembled for an inauguration and possibly in the history of the country. In 2005, Washington brought in 3,000 officers from out of town to augment its force of 3,600, and fewer than two dozen security agencies were involved.
While many police departments say they are proud to be sending contingents, for which they will be reimbursed, the New York police were never asked.
The matter is of interest now because some jurisdictions, like Los Angeles County, are sending deputy sheriffs at more expense than would be likely for an equivalent contingent from New York. In addition, New York officers are missing out on a chance to participate in a historic national ceremony.
Traci Hughes, a spokeswoman for the Metropolitan Police Department, said that New York was not asked to send officers this time because the city had not sent any officers to the previous inauguration, in 2005.
“We were working under the assumption that because New York didn’t want to participate in 2005, we presumed they didn’t want to participate this time, when the demands would be greater,” Ms. Hughes said.
But Paul J. Browne, the chief spokesman for the New York Police Department, said the department was not aware of any request in 2005.
He said that in early September 2001, Washington did ask New York to send a contingent to the annual meeting of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, scheduled for the end of the month. The meeting was expected to be a target of anti-globalization protesters, who had made their mark in violent demonstrations during a world trade meeting in Seattle in 1999.
The request from Washington arrived shortly before Sept. 11. At the time, Mr. Browne said, the Police Department was reviewing liability and indemnification issues before agreeing to send any officers. But once the terrorists struck, the whole matter was dropped.
“It just fell through the cracks,” he said.
Since then, Washington has apparently labored under the misimpression that New York was not interested in sending officers to augment the local force. Mr. Browne said that there was no such feeling in New York and that the city had sent contingents to other cities, including more than 300 officers and emergency equipment to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
“It’s not upsetting as much as it is perplexing, because of our proximity to Washington,” Mr. Browne said.
Kristopher Baumann, head of Washington’s police union, said he, too, was surprised.
“No one weighed the proximity to Washington or their experience, and it seems a little troubling when you have large urban agencies very close to us that the request was not made,” he said. “I question how well thought out this was.”
Other large police forces have reacted to Washington’s request in a variety of ways as local budgets are strained in the tight economy.
Philadelphia, for example, is sending 290 officers and supervisors. Police Commissioner Charles H. Ramsey, who was the police chief in Washington during the 2001 and 2005 inaugurations, said Washington initially asked Philadelphia for 48 officers but expanded the request when it realized the crowd could be the biggest ever. He said he asked for volunteers, and more than 500 officers put up their hands.
“We chose our best officers, as a reward for a job well done,” Mr. Ramsey said. “They represent our city, it’s a historic event and our people are pretty excited about it.”
He said he was certain that the department would be reimbursed for all costs for the three-day assignment.
The City of Los Angeles, however, was not interested in sending any of its police officers. Although Chief William J. Bratton actively campaigned for Mr. Obama, a spokesman said he believed it made more sense for departments on the East Coast to respond.
But Los Angeles County agreed to send 112 sheriff’s deputies, over the vocal opposition of some county supervisors.
Ms. Hughes of the Metropolitan Police declined to describe the overall costs of importing 4,000 officers or how much of the reimbursement costs would come from the federal government.
“Rest assured, everyone will be reimbursed,” she said. “For what and how much, I can’t be specific.”
Eric Holder's name was leaked as the Obama team sought reassurance that he could be nominated. They got those assurances. Now:
"Holder's Hearing Might be Rocky -GOP Could Grill Cabinet Nominee"
_________________________________________________________________
By Scott Helman, Globe Staff | December 29, 2008
With Barack Obama anxious to take office, the public eager for fresh leadership, and the economy demanding urgent attention, the Senate is likely to defer to the president-elect and swiftly approve his Cabinet nominees, congressional aides and political analysts say.
But there will be one prominent exception: The confirmation hearing for Eric Holder, Obama's pick for attorney general, promises to be bruising, with Republicans determined to explore Holder's role in controversial pardons under President Clinton, his views on gun rights, and his involvement in the case of Elian Gonzalez, the 6-year-old Cuban boy returned to his homeland by Clinton's Justice Department.
"You're probably only going to have one truly horrendous confirmation; that's always the case," said Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution, who served on the White House staffs of presidents Eisenhower and Nixon. "In this case, it is clearly the attorney general-designate, Eric Holder."
The Senate must consent to presidents' Cabinet appointments, but it rarely stands in the way. The chamber has formally rejected less than 2 percent of nominees since 1789; occasionally a president has had to pull a nomination in the face of criticism, as Clinton did in 1993 when an initial choice for attorney general, Zoe Baird, came under fire for hiring illegal immigrants.
Barring some unexpected revelation, Obama may have even more clout than usual because the Democrats picked up additional Senate seats in last month's election.
He drew heavily on Congress for his Cabinet nominees, whose former colleagues will be loath to go after aggressively. And he is benefiting from broad public support and a universally acknowledged urgency about an orderly transition to power.
So while some senators may, for example, want to deeply examine the involvement of treasury secretary nominee Timothy Geithner, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in the $700 billion bailout of the financial industry, the need for him to start working right away may be paramount.
"If you hold up Tim Geithner and the stock market falls 500 points, is it your fault?" said Forrest Maltzman, a political science professor at George Washington University.
There are some potential friction spots as Obama's Cabinet picks make the rounds on Capitol Hill. A federal grand jury is reportedly investigating a financial firm's donations to commerce secretary nominee Bill Richardson, and Hilda Solis, Obama's pick for labor secretary, could be challenged over her support for a controversial union-backed workplace organizing measure.
Senator Hillary Clinton, Obama's choice for secretary of state, is likely to be pressed on her husband's business and philanthropic ties abroad, but she is expected to be approved with ease. Indeed, Richard Lugar of Indiana - the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which will hold a hearing on Clinton - has already signaled his approval.
"He wants the national security team in place as quickly as possible," said Lugar spokesman Mark Hayes.
But Holder - a partner at a Washington law firm and a former judge, federal prosecutor, and deputy attorney general under Clinton - appears to be the Republicans' prime target, and both sides are busy preparing for a tough grilling.
Holder's hearing is scheduled to begin Jan. 15, after Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont, the Senate Judiciary Committee chairman, agreed to Republican requests to move the date back, to allow more time to check Holder's record.
Judiciary Committee staff members have pulled more than 150 boxes from their archives and have been poring over internal memos and transcripts from Holder's tenure at the Department of Justice.
Republicans have also asked the Justice Department and the Clinton Presidential Library for documents relating to, among other things, Clinton's impeachment, former vice president Al Gore's fund-raising activities during the 1996 presidential campaign, the 1993 federal raid on the Branch Davidian complex in Waco, Texas, and the pardon of financier Marc Rich.
And on Dec. 17, Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, the ranking Republican on the Judiciary Committee, sent a letter to Holder asking him to account for "apparent omissions" in his questionnaire, including work on gaming that Holder did in 2004 for Rod Blagojevich, the beleaguered Illinois governor.
One senior Republican Senate aide, who agreed to discuss Holder's nomination only on the condition of anonymity, said GOP senators are not necessarily looking to derail his appointment, but to force a careful review. "No one on our side wants to filibuster or slow down this nominee; that's not the issue," the aide said.
Holder will surely be pressed hard on the pardon of Rich, who faced charges of tax fraud and making illegal oil deals with Iran and whose former wife had been a Clinton donor. Clinton pardoned Rich in the closing hours of his presidency after Holder's recommendation had been "neutral leaning towards favorable." Holder has since said that his judgment was a mistake.
Some Republicans and analysts say Holder may also be pressed on his past support for gun control measures. In January 2008, he joined several former Justice Department officials in urging the Supreme Court to uphold Washington's ban on handguns. (The court later struck it down.)
Obama's transition team is helping prepare him for the hearing, and Holder is rehearsing his defenses. On Dec. 22, Leahy released more than four-dozen letters of support for Holder's confirmation from a variety of individuals and groups, including James B. Comey, the prosecutor in the Rich case, who said Holder "knows and loves the department and has demonstrated his commitment to the rule of law across an entire career."
An Obama transition official, granted anonymity to address strategy, said that Holder, if challenged on whether in light of the Rich case he can be trusted to display political independence from the president, will cite two high-profile example of him breaking with party leaders.
The first, according to the transition official, was Holder's prosecution, as US attorney for the District of Columbia, of former US representative Dan Rostenkowski, an Illinois Democrat and House Ways and Means Committee chairman who served prison time for misusing taxpayer money. The second, the official said, was Holder's support, while deputy attorney general, of broadening independent counsel Kenneth Starr's investigations into Clinton's activities.
Part of the opposing party's goal in tough questioning, analysts say, is to take the incoming president down a peg, to force him to spend political capital early in the term, thereby lessening the capital he can spend on policy battles down the road.
"If you can burn it up on confirmations and make the president spend the capital getting Eric Holder confirmed as attorney general and things like that, politically, from the Republicans' perspective, that's a win," said Maltzman.
But Brian Darling, director of Senate relations at the Heritage Foundation, said the GOP has to be careful in this political environment not to push too hard.
I am appalled by Israel's attack against Gaza. I find it ironic that the country that was formed because of the Holocaust would then commit the same crime against the Palestinians and expect world support. I am not surprised at Bush's response to this attack, but being Israel's puppet does not bring peace to the Middle East, it creates more conflict, and conflict breeds terrorism. This myopic view of the Middle East, seen only from Israel's point of view, is a diplomatic disaster.
Does Israel have the right to exist? Yes. Does it have the right to exterminate Palestine? No. Israel complains that Hamas is causing chaos and breaking the cease-fire, yet Israel has an extremist faction of its own that it us unwilling or unable to control. They have broken MANY cease-fires, yet THEY are not shelled into oblivion. Israel's answer has ALWAYS been to blame everything on Palestine, and use it as an excuse to attack and kill them. The truth is, ANY group of people who are forced to live behind walls, unable to go to work or school, unable to get food or medicine, and forced to go through checkpoints to move through their own country WILL lash out in anger and frustration. Their situation is intolerable.
This HAS to stop. The world community is calling on it to stop. America needs to step up and join in with the rest of the world, and condemn this attack. President Elect Obama, we need a REAL Middle East policy, not just an Israeli appeasement policy. Until we get one, there will be no peace, and no end to terrorism.
Barack Obama and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will be joining a national day of service on Monday, Jan. 19, the day before they are sworn in as president and vice president. This event, reported earlier in The New York Times, comes from an official outline of their schedule, which was just released.
Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden and their families are to participate in as-yet-unannounced service activities in Washington, D.C., and will call on everyone across the country to participate in similar events in their own home towns.
The next day, Tuesday, is inauguration day, when Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden will be sworn into office.And they will be going to inaugural balls, but we don’t know yet which ones they will attend or how many. Mr. Obama is having a new tux made; there has been no word on which designer might be dressing Michelle Obama.
They new first and second couples will participate in “the traditional inaugural ceremonies,” the announcement says, including the swearing-in on the West Front of the Capitol, lunch in Statuary Hall inside the Capitol, the parade down Pennsylvania Avenue and official inaugural balls.
“Details about the inaugural balls will be released at a later date,” the announcement says.
On Wednesday, Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden will participate in a prayer service, which is also customary.
Barack Obama plans to use his full name, Barack Hussein Obama, at his inauguration.
The president-elect told the Chicago Tribune that he would use his middle name out of tradition but also because it could help re-establish ties with Muslim countries.
“I think we’ve got a unique opportunity to reboot America’s image around the world and also in the Muslim world in particular,” Mr. Obama told the newspaper Tuesday. He also said he had an “unrelenting” desire to “create a relationship of mutual respect and partnership in countries and with peoples of good will who want their citizens and ours to prosper together.”
The world, he said, “is ready for that message.”
As part of his effort to restore relations with the Muslim world, Mr. Obama also has said he planned to deliver a major speech in an Islamic capital, which he did not identify.As for his middle name, Mr. Obama noted that presidents traditionally take the oath of office using their full and proper names, and he would do the same.
“I think the tradition is that they use all three names, and I will follow the tradition,” Mr. Obama said of the swearing-in ceremony. “I’m not trying to make a statement one way or another. I’ll do what everybody else does.”
He largely ignored his middle name during the campaign as his critics invoked it to suggest falsely that Mr. Obama, who is a Christian, was a Muslim. Some of his supporters informally adopted the name, at least in their online dealings, in a show of solidarity and to try to de-stigmatize it.
Mr. Obama also said that even though he is moving to Washington, his heart will remain in Chicago. His vacation retreat will not be the Kennebunkport of the Bush family but Chicago’s South Side, and he plans to return early and often.
“Let me explain to you, my Kennebunkport is on the South Side of Chicago,” he said. “Our friends are here. Our family is here. We are going to try to come back here as often as possible,” he said, meaning “at least once every six weeks or couple months.”
So much for Mr. Obama’s traveling press corps, which was looking forward to presidential vacations in Hawaii.
The crackpots have had their latest press conference, fresh off a rejection from the U.S. Supreme Court. Is there ANY way to slap some sense into these people? Or at least shut them up?
Sanity was nowhere to be found at the press conference held by the alarmists who believe Obama is not a U.S. citizen.
By Mike Madden
Dec. 09, 2008 |
At first it was a relief to see that the conspiracy theorists who believe Barack Obama isn't eligible to be president didn't shoot any pumpkins at their press conference Monday afternoon. After all, the proponents of this latest theory seem to be heading for levels of mania that even Dan Burton never dreamed up as he investigated outlandish claims about Bill Clinton. (If you need to brush up on your conspiracies, Burton resorted to blowing away squashes in his backyard to show how Clinton had a hand in the murder of White House counsel Vince Foster.) But considering the Supreme Court had refused Monday morning to hear a lawsuit about Obama's citizenship, there was reason to hope that maybe things at the afternoon press conference would stay reasonable.
Two and a half hours later, as dentist-slash-lawyer Orly Taitz harangued reporters for not investigating whether Obama's mother was actually dead, that hope had been obliterated. It was crushed by a torrent of half-baked legal theories, vague platitudes about the Constitution and sinister "facts" assembled by a collection of true believers so extreme that even Michelle Malkin wants nothing to do with them. (Let alone actual Republican operatives, who appear to realize that questioning Obama's citizenship isn't the best way to begin their journey out of the political wilderness.) Although the news conference wasn't quite over when Taitz began her harangue, it had been 15 minutes since a member of the audience compared Obama's alleged electoral fraud to how Hitler rose to power -- a sure sign it was well past time to leave.
The gist of the conspiracy theory is that Obama doesn't meet the Constitution's requirement that a president be a "natural born citizen." Somehow Obama is concealing the fact that he was either born in Kenya (or maybe Indonesia) or that he renounced his U.S. citizenship as a child. One of Taitz's fellow alarmists, Pennsylvania lawyer Phi Berg (a bipartisan conspiracist -- he believes George W. Bush was behind 9/11), said Obama is an undocumented immigrant. Most of this "evidence" is easily debunked, though it can get confusing as it gets more feverish.
At any rate, the theory goes, Obama's not fit to take office, and Taitz and Berg, along with a few followers and the main ringleader for Monday's show, anti-tax activist Bob Schultz, aim to stop him. Schultz feels so strongly about the threat Obama poses to the republic that he spent tens of thousands of dollars on full-page newspaper ads last week, and plans to hold a citizens' conference after Inauguration Day if the courts don't intervene -- just the first step, apparently, in a process that Schultz says is devoted to resisting a government that has turned lawless.
"This nation is headed towards a vortex of a Constitutional crisis," Schultz said. "While on the one hand, the Obama citizenship issue is so simple a schoolchild could grasp it, if left festering and unanswered, it possesses the potential to send our nation into a time of great peril."
Talk like that could seem like a real threat, especially with the country dealing with the collapse of the economy and more than enough war to keep any president busy. But Schultz and his allies are having a tough time winning over the masses with their far-fetched theories. About 150,000 people have signed a petition at RallyCongress.com about Obama, which sounds like a lot, until you realize that it's about one-tenth of 1 percent of the total votes cast in the presidential race this year.
Throughout the press conference, the conspiracy theorists had trouble keeping things focused. Harlem minister James David Manning wandered off on a tangent about how Obama's election still means "there's never been a black womb" that produced a president. Manning might have seemed like he was making a case against Obama based on some theory of black nationalism, except that he admitted he had endorsed John McCain in the campaign. That was after he had called Obama "this usurper, this long-legged mack daddy."
Taitz -- the lead attorney in the case the Supreme Court declined to hear Monday morning -- kept making stranger and stranger assertions. At one point, she asked why the government had fined broadcasters for Janet Jackson's "wardrobe malfunction," but didn't intervene to force the media to report on Obama's allegedly phony birth certificate. She claimed Obama holds passports from at least four countries, compared him to Black Panther leader Eldridge Cleaver, equated the "controversy" about Obama to Watergate, and finished her tour-de-force presentation by saying that if Obama can claim he's a U.S. citizen and win an election, then so could just about anyone. "If a person can become a presidential candidate only based on his own statement," she said, "then somebody like Osama bin Laden, theoretically, can come and write a statement, 'I'm eligible,' and we should put him on the ballot, too?"
That sort of thing went on for 90 minutes before Schultz opened the press conference up to questions. It was clear from the occasional applause that most of the people in the room agreed with Schultz, anyway. Although the event was at the National Press Club, that's no guarantee of mainstream media interest. Groups may appear legitimate because they hold a news conference at the club, but the dirty little secret is the club rents out its rooms to anybody who shows up with the money. Most of the people apparently came from the weirder corners of the media. One friendly questioner, Shelli Baker of Morning Song Radio, wound up taking the mike for about 10 minutes to tell a complicated story involving Saudi oil barons, John Ashcroft, sharia law, the World Bank and Mitt Romney, which left even Schultz confused.
By Jan. 20, the courts -- which have, so far, uniformly refused to treat this matter as anything other than a nuisance -- will probably have left Schultz and his friends out in the cold. But the enduring power of any conspiracy theory comes from its ability to adapt to any circumstances, and this one is no exception. The only thing legal defeats teach the anti-Obama crowd is that the judges are in on it, too. Berg has another lawsuit up his sleeve if the ones he's involved in fail, though he said he couldn't talk about it because the proceedings have been sealed. For the foreseeable future, there could be "a new lawsuit for every action Obama takes" as president, Berg said. And to think Clinton had it bad.
As my colleague Manu Raju reported, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin is calling for the Illinois state legislature to pass a law taking away the governor’s ability to appoint a successor for Barack Obama’s vacant Senate seat.In Durbin’s scenario, a special election would be held in 2009 to fill Barack Obama's Senate seat.And the incoming Illinois State Senate president favors the idea, and is talking about legislation to make it happen."Before I take office as the President, we should pass legislation changing the law to allow for special election for the replacement of Sen. Obama. And I believe that Sen. [Emil] Jones will support me in that effort," said John Cullerton, the incoming state Senate president.While the move is being advocated by two of the state’s leading Democrats, it is concerning several Illinois-based Democratic operatives, who believe that a special election would offer a golden opportunity for Republicans to pick off the Senate seatTheir thinking goes like this: If an election was held in mid-2009, the governor’s arrest would still be fresh on voters’ minds. Democrats would likely face a crowded primary with the risk of the eventual nominee being tied to the corrupt Blagojevich administration. And Obama's Senate seat would remain vacant for months, giving the president-elect one less Democrat in the Senate.“With this so fresh in the minds of voters, Republicans may have a chance at this seat in a special election,” said one Democratic operative from Illinois.Meanwhile, the risk for aspiring House Republicans – read: moderate suburban Rep. Mark Kirk – would be next-to-nil to run in an off-year special election. Kirk would not have to step down from his House seat to run for the Senate under that scenario. If he chose to run for statewide office in 2010, he would have to give up his House seat.
Obama team's warring Middle East viewsBy: Ben Smith December 6, 2008 10:25 AM EST
President-elect Barack Obama and his presumptive secretary of state, Hillary Rodham Clinton, both pledged during the campaign to press for peace in the Middle East. But the Middle East conflict is, perhaps unsurprisingly, already playing out on a small scale within Obama’s own transition. Top policy jobs haven’t been filled — the org chart, insiders say, hasn’t even been drawn — but Middle East politics watchers, and Obama backers concerned with Israel, are carefully eyeing the interplay between two of his most important advisers on the Middle East. One is Dennis Ross, a stalwart of the Clinton administration’s peace negotiations who is seen as favoring a tough approach to Iran. The other is Daniel Kurtzer, a former ambassador to Israel who in his 2008 book quoted Arab and U.S. officials saying Ross was perceived as “tilted” toward the Israeli side, and that he "listened to what Israel wanted and then tried to sell it toward the Arabs." The choice of who shapes his policy toward Israel and the Palestinians, said a top Obama backer, will be a “bellwether” for the administration’s Middle East policy — for how much to require of Palestinian leaders before they can strike a permanent deal, and for how hard to push Israel for concessions in the interest of peace. The interest is particularly intense because despite his general pro-Israel views, the details of Obama’s approach remain unclear: During the campaign, he riled the right by suggesting that to be pro-Israel isn’t to be pro-Likud, but he has also offered tough talk on Israeli security, disappointing Palestinian activists who saw him as an ally during his State Senate days in Illinois. The difference is a matter of degrees — and not very many degrees — within a firmly pro-Israel policy team, and there are no obvious differences of policy between the two men. Ross, the supposed man of the right, was central to the Oslo peace accords despised by some conservatives in Israel and the United States; Kurtzer, the supposed man of the left, is a Hebrew-speaking Orthodox Jew who was President George W. Bush's ambassador to Israel. But some close watchers of the negotiations in the region think that choosing Ross would indicate that Obama plans to make tough negotiations with Iran, with a focus on weakening its regional grip, a priority, and to work closely with Israel in negotiations with the Palestinians. They think the choice of Kurtzer might mean a slightly tougher stance toward the Israeli government, and a more rapid push for a historic South Lawn handshake between Israeli and Palestinian leaders. And a small, perceived distinction in the swirl of politics and perception that is Mideast politics can produce a lot of heat. Insiders say there is no love lost between the two. Kurtzer emerged in the Democratic primary as an ambassador to the pro-Israel and Jewish communities for Obama. Ross, a trusted figure among relatively hawkish American Jewish leaders, advised both Obama and Clinton in the primary, and was a behind the scenes force in the general election, assuring figures such as New York Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman that Obama was committed to Israel’s safety.
Obama has worked to keep both men inside the tent. They serve together on his Middle East transition team, along with Biden adviser Tony Blinken and two campaign aides, Dan Shapiro and Eric Lynn. But camps have begun to develop: The liberal Israeli newspaper Haaretz floated Kurtzer as “special Mideast envoy” (puzzling Obama insiders who say that Obama — and Clinton — have not yet even decided whether to appoint a Mideast envoy whose portfolio includes the linked issue of Iran, or to divide that portfolio). A Kurtzer admirer in Obama’s camp said choosing him would send the message that “we want to draw on the past, but we want to move forward on our own and not be bound by that.” Meanwhile, Kurtzer’s critics say he lacks Ross’s stature, and that his relationship as ambassador with the icon of the Israeli center-right, then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, left something to be desired. They see Ross in a more senior policy making role than envoy, if there even is an envoy. “I’m not sure Dennis wants to be the new Bill Murray of 'Groundhog Day' and just be special envoy again,” said a Ross fan. Ross did not return a call from Politico seeking comment, and Kurtzer e-mailed that he isn’t speaking to the press. And they aren’t the only ones in the running for top posts shaping U.S. Mideast policy. Clinton Israel Ambassador Martin Indyk remains a force in the field, and Obama’s national security adviser, Gen. Jim Jones, has his own background in Middle East peacemaking and could bring in a member of his military team there. The distance between Kurtzer and Ross, moreover, isn’t the only possible rift. The New Republic suggested recently that conflict could come between Jones, who has pushed for Israeli compromises, and Clinton, who has become firmly identified with a hard pro-Israel line. Even Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a fiercely pro-Israel Florida Republican, advised Obama in a telephone conversation “to rely on Hillary’s advice on Israel, because she is very pro-Israel,” her spokesman, Alex Cruz, told Politico. The form of the peace process also remains unclear. Top American diplomats, inlcuding Indyk, Ross, and Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations, have suggested that the U.S. press for a treaty between Israel and Syria before attempting to settle the Palestinian conflict. The Israeli elections on Feb. 10 could bring to power Benjamin Netanyahu, who is thought to favor that Syria-first approach, and who is skeptical of talks with Palestinian leaders; or Tzipi Livni, who appears more likely to aim for a grand bargain with the Palestinians. And ultimately, the key factor may be the commitment of the key American players, Clinton and Obama, whose attention will be drawn by an economic crisis at home, and Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan abroad. “What counts is whether the president of the United States is going to make this a top priority, and whether the secretary of state is going to provide the kind of adult supervision and oversight that is required,” said Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official and veteran of Mideast negotiations. “Who they come up with [as envoy] is significant but not determinative.” Amie Parnes contributed to this report.
© 2008 Capitol News Company, LLC
By James Rowley
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- President-elect Barack Obama may soon have to choose between executing five confessed plotters of the Sept. 11 attacks or trying them in courts that do more to protect their rights.
The accused terrorists -- led by the avowed ringleader of the 2001 strikes -- told a military tribunal this week at the U.S. Navy base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, they want to plead guilty. At least two have said they seek martyrdom by being put to death by the U.S.
Obama would have to “invest a lot of political capital into justifying why we need a better system for these particular guys,” Lisa Hajjar, a legal sociologist at the University of California at Santa Barbara, said in an interview. “A lot of Americans would be just as happy to see these people plead guilty.”
Martha Rayner, a Fordham University law professor who represents two Guantanamo detainees not involved in the Sept. 11 case, predicted in an e-mail that Obama will abandon the military commissions created to try suspected terrorists because of their flaws “and the stigma associated with them.”
During the campaign, Obama suggested he would scrap the military tribunals, saying detainees should be tried in civilian courts or before a military court-martial that affords more legal safeguards.
Self-Described Mastermind
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the self-described mastermind of the al-Qaeda attacks, and four co-defendants stunned onlookers at Guantanamo this week by offering to plead guilty to orchestrating the Sept. 11 attacks that killed almost 3,000 people. With the mental competency of two defendants unresolved, it is almost assured the case won’t be concluded before President George W. Bush leaves office on Jan. 20.
No further hearings have been scheduled in the case.
Mohammed has sought “to use the American system to enable him to complete his martyrdom operation,” Hajjar said. The offer to plead guilty “is a manipulation that should have been very clearly and obviously anticipated.”
At their June arraignment, Mohammed and fellow defendant Ramzi Binalshibh told the court they welcomed martyrdom.
Hajjar said Mohammed is politically savvy and taking advantage of the procedural rights in the tribunal.
“We just give him the chain and he keeps yanking it,” she said.
Army Major Jon Jackson, lawyer for defendant Mustafa al Hawsawi, said in an interview that the detainees’ joint decision to plead guilty shows that Mohammed has been calling the shots for the group.
Obama’s Election
Defense lawyers said Mohammed and the detainees, while isolated, were aware of Obama’s election and its possible implications for them. The detainees decided on offering confessions on Nov. 4, the day Obama was elected.
At this week’s proceeding, Mohammed showed his disdain for the legal process. He told the trial judge, Army Colonel Stephen Henley, “We don’t want to waste our time in motions and motions.”
They “seemed to view the proceedings as a joke,” said Hamilton Peterson, whose father and stepmother were killed on United Flight 93 that crashed in Pennsylvania after it was hijacked on Sept. 11. “With all this due process, they were mocking it,” said Peterson, one of nine relatives of victims of the 2001 attacks who witnessed this week’s proceedings.
The confessions by the Sept. 11 plotters may lend support to any decision by Obama to scrap the tribunals, said Matthew Waxman, a former Defense Department official who teaches law at Columbia University. “The more circus-like the military commissions proceedings become, the more persuasive will be arguments that they need to be replaced,” he said in an e-mail exchange.
Supreme Court Ruling
The Supreme Court struck down the military commissions that Bush set up after the Sept. 11 attacks, prompting Congress to enact legislation in 2006 to start them again. A series of legal challenges delayed the start of trials until this year.
Defense lawyer Thomas Durkin voiced concern that Obama will “get painted into a corner because all of a sudden we are going to have people who are pleading guilty down in Guantanamo.”
There are “complex political decisions that have to be made,” Durkin told reporters. The Bush administration shouldn’t push the tribunal to deny Obama the opportunity for “careful consideration of what is, indeed, a very complex problem.”
Army Colonel Lawrence Morris, the military’s top war-crimes prosecutor, rejected Durkin’s suggestion that the Bush administration was using the plea offers for “political blackmail” to force Obama to let the Sept. 11 cases go to a conclusion under the commission.
“The guilty plea is a decision solely in the control of the accused,” he said.
Morris defended the military commissions as fair and open, saying the Guantanamo courtroom has only been closed to spectators for several minutes at the request of the defense.
Asked what he would do if Obama shuts down Guantanamo and the commissions, Morris said he would “obey the orders of my commander in chief.”
To contact the reporter on this story: James Rowley in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba at jarowley@bloomberg.net
By Catherine Dodge and Michael Tackett Dec. 10
(Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama’s hometown of Chicago has an unofficial political handshake: palms extended, facing up. It goes with the city’s unwritten motto, “Where is mine?”
The mythology of official corruption added another chapter yesterday in the form of a 76-page federal criminal complaint against Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich. It charged him with attempting to sell his choice of President-elect Obama’s replacement in the U.S. Senate in exchange for a lucrative job or prestigious appointment, among other allegations.
“The conduct would make Lincoln roll over in his grave,” said U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald in announcing the corruption charges against the governor.
The news reverberated from the state capital in Springfield to Washington, with collateral damage and a taint on Obama’s transition to power. It threw into question whether Blagojevich, who was arrested at his Chicago home in a predawn raid the day before his 52nd birthday, would try to stay in office while fighting the charges and how Obama’s replacement would be named.
Blagojevich repeatedly indicated he wanted payback if he were to appoint someone of Obama’s choosing as his successor, the complaint said. The document anonymously lists five possibilities, including “Senate Candidate 1,” identified by the Chicago Tribune as Valerie Jarrett, a Chicago businesswoman Obama recently tapped to become a senior White House adviser. Jarrett withdrew from consideration during the time Blagojevich was secretly taped discussing the chances of naming her.
Obama Not Implicated
Fitzgerald said there was “no allegation” that Obama was aware of what the prosecutor said was Blagojevich’s attempt to gain personally and financially from naming his replacement.
“There’s no reference in the complaint to any conversation involving the president-elect or indicating that the president- elect was aware of it,” Fitzgerald said. Jarrett wasn’t implicated in any wrongdoing either.
Blagojevich was charged with conspiracy to commit mail and wire fraud, as well as solicitation of bribery. His office declined to comment.
Obama, 47, said he had no contact with the governor or his office and “was not aware of what was happening.”
“Obviously, like the rest of the people of Illinois, I am saddened and sobered by the news that came out of the U.S. Attorney’s office,” he told reporters in Chicago. “But, as this is an ongoing investigation involving the governor, I don’t think it would be appropriate for me to comment on the issue at this time.”
In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, he declined to answer a question about whether any of his top aides had spoken about the Senate seat with Blagojevich or John Harris, the governor’s chief of staff, who was also arrested yesterday.
Tangential Relationship
Obama’s relationship to the case appears tangential, though the charges lump his name in the same stories as Blagojevich at a time when he is trying to focus public attention on his plan to revive the U.S. economy.
He wasn’t a political ally of Blagojevich, according to Dan Sprehe, a investigator at the Better Government Association, a Chicago government-watchdog group that is calling on Blagojevich to step down. The governor’s arrest may not become a major concern for Obama because “given the circumstances the country is in, it would take a lot to distract a president-elect.”
Still, Blagojevich has previous political connections to Obama, U.S. Representative Rahm Emanuel, who will be White House chief of staff, and David Axelrod, who will be a senior White House adviser.
Obama gave Blagojevich informal counsel on his gubernatorial race in 2002. Blagojevich gave up a seat in the U.S. House when he won the governor’s race and was succeeded by Emanuel. Axelrod, a political consultant, has given advice to all three at times.
Axelrod ‘Mistaken’
In an appearance on Nov. 23 on “Fox Chicago Sunday,” Axelrod said Obama had spoken to Blagojevich about his replacement. Yesterday, the transition released a statement by Axelrod saying he had misspoken.
“I was mistaken when I told an interviewer last month that the president-elect has spoken directly to Governor Blagojevich about the Senate vacancy. They did not then or at any time discuss this subject,” the statement said.
Blagojevich’s actions surrounding the Senate vacancy are at the heart of the federal charges.
Seeking Cabinet Post
He had a number of possible ways he wanted to be paid off for the appointment, the complaint alleged. He proposed being tapped to head an arm of the Service Employees International Union called Change to Win. He speculated that Obama could persuade billionaires like Warren Buffett or Bill Gates to set up a charitable organization for him to run, or that he might be rewarded with a Cabinet post or an ambassadorship, according to the charges.
Change to Win spokesman Greg Denier said in a statement that no one connected with the group “ever considered, discussed or promised any position” to the governor.
If the president-elect were to balk at the quid pro quo, Blagojevich said he would appoint himself to fill the seat, the complaint said.
The document quotes Blagojevich recounting a conversation with advisers, who told him to “suck it up” and “give this motherfucker (the president-elect) his senator.”
He replied: “Fuck him. For nothing? Fuck him,” according to the complaint.
Blagojevich said he needed to find a way to take the “financial stress” off his family, prosecutors said.
Two Years Left
The governor still has two years left in his term. His arrest yesterday is likely to accelerate calls for his impeachment after years of investigation into his administration and the conviction of some associates. One associate, Antoin “Tony” Rezko, was a former fundraiser for Obama and was found guilty earlier this year of fraud and is set to be sentenced Jan. 6.
Blagojevich is the second Illinois governor in a row to be charged with criminal conduct.
The question before Illinois political leaders is what to do next. Senior Illinois Senator Dick Durbin, a Democrat, was among those calling on state lawmakers to take steps toward holding a special election.
“The general assembly should enact a law as quickly as possible calling for a special election to fill the Senate vacancy of Barack Obama,” Durbin said in Washington. “No appointment by this governor could produce a credible replacement.”
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said in a statement yesterday that Blagojevich must be removed from the process.
“Anyone Governor Blagojevich appoints to the Senate will fairly or unfairly be tainted,” Reid said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Catherine Dodge in Washington at cdodge1@bloomberg.net; Michael Tackett in Washington at mtackett@bloomberg.net
The looming crisis in Somalia is an opportunity for Barack Obama to show that he won't repeat the mistakes of the U.S.'s recent past.
Jonathan Stevenson, The New Republic Published: Friday, November 21, 2008
Somalia, a genuine failed state, ranks alongside Sudan as the world's most conspicuous candidate for American attention in the early days of Barack Obama's administration. Last week, capping a series of territorial gains across the country, Islamist insurgents seized the port of Merka, and appeared poised for an offensive against the capital city of Mogadishu 60 miles to the north. Aspiring jihadists, averse to the risks posed in Iraq and Pakistan, are increasingly flocking to Somalia, which is 97 percent Sunni Muslim. At the same time, Somali pirates have become a significant maritime menace, with press reports suggesting that they are driving up prices of goods worldwide. Almost two years ago, U.S.-supported Ethiopian troops ousted the de facto government run by the Al Qaeda-linked Islamic Courts Union (ICU) from Mogadishu, installed an internationally recognized secular transitional government formed in exile, and remained in-country to support it along with an anemic African Union (AU) contingent. But the Ethiopians can't afford to stay much longer, and their repressive tactics have lost Somali hearts and minds, allowing the Islamists to regain social as well as military traction. Earlier this month, in a brutally populist application of sharia law, a 13-year old girl was stoned to death in the southern Somali city of Kismayu for alleged adultery in a stadium packed with 1,000 spectators.
The upstart al-Shabaab--meaning "youth"--faction of the ICU has become a political spoiler. On October 29, the group executed five coordinated suicide car-bomb attacks against transitional government and U.N. targets in different locations around the country, killing about 30 people and accelerating a trend of rising jihadist violence against local civic leaders and international aid workers perceived as pro-Western. Significantly, al-Shabaab targeted the northern city of Hargeisa, the seat of government of the relatively safe and successful quasi-state of Somaliland, even as the transitional government was making progress in Nairobi towards an orderly Ethiopian withdrawal. The threat the ICU posed in late 2006 has thus re-materialized: that Islamists will Talibanize Somalia and nurture a regional base for jihadism that exports insecurity and instability.
If the résumés of his likely foreign-policy advisers are any indication, President-elect Barack Obama does not intend to ignore Africa. Susan Rice, a strong contender for national security adviser, was assistant secretary of state for African affairs in the Clinton administration. Samantha Power, also prominently mentioned, wrote the Pulitzer Prize-winning A Problem from Hell, a passionate chronicle of the Rwandan genocide and critique of the United States' failure to intervene. In the 2,000-strong Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa, based in Djibouti, Africa Command (AFRICOM), the United States' new combatant command dedicated to Africa, has the means of bolstering secular Somali militias (or more Ethiopians) against Islamist forces. But that has not produced sustainable stability in the past and isn't likely to do so now, and would only stoke Africans' fears of American militarism. Further, constricted budgets and two wars elsewhere will call for judiciously set priorities.
Soft rather than hard power should be the United States' instrument of choice on the continent, and in Somalia. So what about an audacious diplomatic American approach to Somalia? The fraught 1992-93 U.S.-led humanitarian intervention, U.S. backing for Ethiopia, and civilian casualties caused by recent American counterterrorism strikes have eroded Somali respect for the United States. But Obama's singular status as the first African American president substantially renews American diplomatic credibility with all Africans, including Somalis.
Expending political capital on such a knotty problem--over a dozen transitional governments have tried and failed over the past 17 years--might seem imprudent at first blush. But the Somalis' very recalcitrance has yielded such low expectations that very little would actually be at risk. Moreover, an earnest attempt at conflict-resolution in Somalia would enable Mr. Obama to showcase the differences between him and his predecessor.
Mr. Bush was a self-described "gut player," uninterested in the cultural subtleties of other peoples, and it showed in a foreign policy that was often ineffective on account of its insensitivity. By contrast, Mr. Obama is surrounding himself with true regional experts, including Africanists who have made it their business to understand Africans and their politics in all their complexities. Somalia's notorious clan system makes for extreme political atomization, and makes any power-sharing solution an especially daunting prospect. Yet the clan network also disperses power from the bottom up, and, properly harnessed, could systematically limit the trajectory of a top-down movement like radical Islamism.
Mr. Obama's prospective team also has extensive experience on the volatile international stage of the 1990s, when the Clinton administration pragmatically--and usually successfully--backed high-level diplomacy with the selective, and therefore credible, use of military force in the Balkans and elsewhere. Thus, they understand one of Mr. Obama's most provocative campaign positions: be open to talking to your enemies.
To be sure, al-Shabaab are bad guys. Members of the group's core leadership are believed to have trained in al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan, it has sought to expel transitional government forces, AU peacekeepers, and Ethiopians troops through insurgency tactics, and supports forming an anti-Western Islamic state. Yet it was a mistake for the Bush administration to include al-Shabaab on the State Department's list of proscribed terrorist organizations. That move, along with a U.S. airstrike in May that killed Aden Hashi Ayro, al-Shabaab's leader, needlessly glorified and antagonized the group; pushed it closer to Al Qaeda; spurred it to expand its target set to any Somalis associated with the West, including local aid workers and community leaders; attracted foreign jihadist recruits; and politically inhibited any U.S. moves towards positive engagement.
Conversely, removing it from the list--as the Clinton administration de-listed the Provisional Irish Republican Army to advance U.S.-brokered talks--could induce al-Shabaab to enter into all-party negotiations with an eye to integrating it--and the ICU--into government and thus co-opting them. Although al-Shabaab would likely continue to be a potential spoiler, nudging it into a negotiating framework that offered some political legitimacy would also make it more susceptible to compromising with moderate Islamists, who are in turn more inclined to deal non-violently with the secular transitional government and with the United States. Sinn Fein's doves, after all, were better able to control the IRA's hawks once the IRA had been de-listed.
High political dividends could be achieved with relatively low financial and bureaucratic investment by coordinating U.S. efforts with and through the AU's larger peace and security agenda. Useful precedents include President Clinton's diplomatic intervention in the Northern Irish "troubles" and President Bush's in the north-south conflict in Sudan. In both cases, the president's appointment of a seasoned and dedicated special envoy with influence and gravitas--former Senator George Mitchell and former Senator John Danforth, respectively--ultimately produced formal political settlements on a non-threatening multilateral basis.
The goal in Somalia would be negotiated state-building. Perhaps U.N.-sanctioned special political status for Somaliland that could qualify it for international aid and protection, in recognition of its largely self-generated order and viability, should be on the table to create incentives for the more unruly militias in southern Somalia to reach political compromises. Even if a diplomatic foray by the Obama administration does not yield immediate success, striking a salutary keynote of multilateral diplomacy would help alleviate African worries about AFRICOM and the militarization of U.S. Africa policy. And returning to Somalia--the notorious site of U.S. military failure around fifteen years ago, which drove its sustained disengagement from Africa and emboldened Al Qaeda--would decisively signal a renewed commitment to the continent.
Jonathan Stevenson is a professor of strategic studies at the U.S. Naval War College. His book, Thinking Beyond the Unthinkable, was published by Viking in August.
