The outcome of the general election has been disputed by some, but math is the only unbiased indication of a projected winner. To be eligible to become president, a candidate must obtain at least 270 of the 538 votes. Each state, Nebraska and Maine exempt, allocates all of their electoral college votes to the winner of said state's primary. Nebraska and Maine run on a congressional district allocation system, in which two of the states' 5 and 4 respective votes automatically go to the winner, and the rest are allocated by congressional district winners.
Solidly red, or republican, states make up 200 electoral college votes. The states are Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, and North and South Carolina.
Solidly blue, or democratic, states make up 172 votes. The states are Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Hawai'i, and California.
The swing states make up 166 votes. The states that swung republican in 2004 are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. They add up to 86 electoral college votes. The states that swung democratic in 2004 are Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. These states add up to 80 votes.
The map for 2008 looks slightly different. Although all the solidly democratic states hold strong, three solidly republican states do not. South Carolina, with 8 electoral college votes, North Dakota, with 3, and Indiana, with 11, may go to either Sens. McCain or Obama due to all recent polling being under the margin of error differences. The tally of solid state votes withholding the three is Sen. Obama 172, Sen. McCain 178. Senator Obama would need 98 votes to reach 270; Senator McCain 92.
The polling for the Democratic leaning swing states all go handily to Senator Barack Obama, with the exception of Michigan. Various polls show smaller than margin of error victories for both candidates where the Illinois democrat has sparsely campaigned yet due to the inapplicable primary. Without counting Michigan yet in either column, Obama is at 235, 35 votes away. The polling for Republican leaning swing states is quite different, however. The states of New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia are all leaning heavily enough to Senator Obama to add their votes to his tally. These states have a total of 54 votes. The Republican leaning swing states that remain for John McCain are Nevada and Florida, for a total of 32 electoral college votes.
This leaves Senator McCain with a total of 210 votes and Senator Obama with a total of 289 electoral college votes, withholding Michigan, South Carolina, North Dakota, and Indiana. Try adding their totals, 39, to Senator John McCain's column. His total would be 249, 21 shy of the 270 needed. Try giving him Virginia. He ends up with 262, and Obama with 276. Give him New Mexico, for Obama 271 to McCain 267. No matter how the math is done to reflect recent polling, Senator Barack Obama is still the president elect.
On the internet I found the viewer judging of the Obama in 30 Seconds Ad Contest. Unfortunately, I found the actual contest after the deadline past, but it is a wonderful collection of ads about the greatness of Senator Barack Obama. I've had a fun time judging but the judging has ended. Here is the link to the website.
www.obamain30seconds.org
Hey everyone,
I'm reporting in from one of the Obama field offices in Clark County, NV. My girlfriend and I just came back from being the precinct captains at our caucus, and the scene here is ugly.
Everyone is reporting election irregularities on the part of the Hillary campaign. There is widespread cheating and voter suppression going on all over Clark County--and it's obviously coming in from the top down. Whether it made enough of a difference to swing the election is another question--but there is no question that Hillary was running a scorched-earth, no-holds-barred campaign in which all of her surrogates were instructed to cheat in every way possible.
To be clear about the caucus process here: caucus doors opened at 11am today; people are allowed to file in and register on location until 12 noon, at which time the doors close and no one else is admitted. Those registering were given non-binding ballots to fill out to help assess in case of problems with head count. At this point, the total number of people in the room are counted. Viability is determined (15%), and then the viable sections have 20 minutes to convince the uncommitteds/unviables. Final counts are then made.
Here are just a few of the irregularities from the Clinton campaign that have come to my ears, before I tell my own story. Word on the ground is that we have video of some of these shenanigans as well.
And there's much, much more. It's only just getting started to come through. How many of these tactics worked is unclear. Certainly, aggressive Obama volunteers like myself should have nipped many of these in the bud, but we're actually counting on concerned citizens who care--not machine operatives trained to cheat and brought up in the nearly criminal Nevada machine and the ruthless, conscience-less Hillary campaign.
Here's my story:
I got to the location at 10:30am and set up. The Hillary people were already there. In charge of them was a 60-ish woman with a slight Brooklyn accent. Here were the irregularities in my precinct alone:
Even so, KK and I managed to convince 6 undecided/Edwards voters (Edwards & uncommitted both lacked viability in my caucus), while their cheating, ruthless operatives only convinced two--and our caucus outperformed the field, garnering 4 delegates to her 5. It was intense--and it was war. I knew what the Clinton operatives were up to, and they knew I knew. It was bloodless war; I almost feel pity for the goodhearted Obama volunteers who were unprepared for the level of sociopathy that I expected--and encountered--from the Clinton campaign.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/19/162953/644
The Obama campaign letter:http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/NV001.pdf
“I want to make change, but I've already made change. I will continue to make change. I'm not just running on a promise of change, I'm running on 35 years of change. The best way to know what change I will produce is to look at the changes that I've already made.
31:55
I am offering 35 years of experience making change and the results to show for it. But I think if you want to know what change each of us will bring about, look at what we've done. And there are a lot of differences that I think need to be aired for the voters of New Hampshire because I stand on my record of experience, and I appreciate Governor Richardson's long history of serving our country. But I think I am an agent of change. I embody change. I think having the first woman president is a huge change -- (applause) -- with consequences across our country and the world. I believe I am more prepared and ready to actually deliver change, and I think that ultimately is what Americans want to know and believe.
52:08
Absolutely, because I've been an agent of change. You know, you go back 35 years…
1:09:10”
- NY Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, January 5th, 2008, Democratic Debate in Manchester, NH.
“Change is just a word if you don't have the strength and experience to make it happen.”
-NY Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton
So Hillary… If you’ve brought about and bring about so much change for 35 years, ever since you were 25, why is America in the mess it is in now? And what is said change?
Well, besides the obvious oxymoron, of course.
Barack Obama, fresh from his victory in Iowa, now holds a ten point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race found Obama with 37% of the vote while Clinton earns 27%. John Edwards is the only other candidate in double digits, with 19% support. Bill Richardson is the choice for 8%.
In a pre-Christmas poll, Clinton led Obama by three. In the poll before that, Obama led Clinton by three. Clinton still leads nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Pollbut Rasmussen Markets data suggests the race for the nomination is essentially even.
In New Hampshire, Obama leads Clinton by five points among Democrats and by sixteen points among Independents. The survey indicates that 40% of the voters will be Independents.
Eighty percent (80%) of Obama voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters say the same along with 64% of Edwards supporters.
Eighty-five percent (85%) of Likely Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Edwards and 69% offer a positive assessment of Clinton.
Just 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) have the opposite opinion including 22% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the former First Lady. At the same time, 75% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama.
Among Edwards voters, 79% have a favorable opinion of Obama and 73% say the same about Clinton.
Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in New Hampshire say that Health Care is a Very Important voting issue. Seventy-three percent (73%) say the same about the economy, 70% attach the same importance to Government Ethics and Corruptions, and 69% say Iraq is a Very Important voting issue.
Rasmussen Markets data at 10:00 a.m. on Saturday morning suggest that Barack Obama has a 65% chance of winning in New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton is given a 37% chance of winning (current numbers: Obama 75.0 %, Clinton 27.7 %. At that same time, Clinton and Obama were each given a 50% chance of ultimately winning the nomination (current numbers: Obama 52.0 %, Clinton 47.0 %.
These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
Rasmussen Reports will be releasing new polling data on the New Hampshire race each morning until Tuesday.