As the debate over healthcare rages on, I wanted to share this write-up I did with the OFA Community. What I find especially disturbing is how everyone who opposes healthcare reform seems to essentially say that healthcare is a privilege. Congressman Grayson dramatized it so well when he spoke up for the stark choices. The question is whether all leaders will have the courage and not hide behind tired, old arguments...
Source: http://www.outsiderviews, retrieved 11/27/2009
Turkey has been on the march over the last few years. It has worked to help mediate in the Arab-Israeli Conflict, has worked to mend fences with Armenia and has also been flexing its muscles in other ways. Turkey is a fasincating country to watch because it has been able to live up to the Ataturk tradition of secularism while embracing the best of what Islam has to offer. The governing Justice and Development Party has been making its mark in a major way. I have just been reading about Turkey's work on Healthcare reform. Back in 2005, the IMF sought out changes necessary to deal with Social Security System and broaden access to quality healthcare. One of the things the Government has apparently done is to rein in the cost of drugs. Although the policy in question is going to apparently be revised, at least there is a realization that the costs will have to be brought under control to help mitigate the effect on the average population. I wonder if anyone has even studied what Turkey to achieve reform. The Turkish Model has profound implications for the United States. If Turkey is able to work on overcoming the difficulties in insuring access to all, it is a national shame that the United States cannot get its act together. It is bothersome to see the insurance cartel's lobbyists and their supporters in Congress and the media seem to buy off on the cartel's talking points. The people who have been pushing for healthcare reform should get a "A" for effort. Although Mr. Reid, Ms. Pelosi and the Adminstration have tried, I submit that trying is simply not good enough. We need to go beyond "trying". I wonder if all who raise objections in the name of free enterprise understand it. As Gordon Brown, the UK Prime Minister once said, Markets have to have morals. The question is whether what is going on in America right now is Moral or not?
For my first write-up for the new year, I chose this "column" I did for Outsider Views....
Source: http://www.outsiderviews.com, retrieved Feburary 5, 2009
In my almost daily columns/comments on the Economy, I had thought about the calamity as a Tsunami. With a Tsunami, there is at least a chance to see Sunshine. However, I think the better term for it is a Winter Storm. I continue to wonder when we will see sunshine.
On Wednesday, the bleeding continued. Cisco Systems, the leading network gear maker, missed the numbers. Alcatel-Lucent continued its' downward slide which has been on-going for a number of years. Disney missed then it came out with its numbers and annouced jobs cuts totaling some 400 workers at the ABC unit. Earlier in the week, Electronic Arts annouced a job cut and delay in new games. Anne Sweeney of Disney talked about the bleeding and the suffering in this rather telling memo:
Source: http://defamer.com/5142251/today-in-were-screwed-disney retrieved Feburary 5, 2009
[I]Sent: Thursday, January 29, 2009 10:21 AM
Subject: Business Update
Team:
After months of making hard decisions across our businesses to help us adjust to a weakening economy, we’re now faced with the harsh reality of having to eliminate jobs in some areas. This was not an easy decision, nor one made lightly. The people affected today are our friends and colleagues, and we are doing all we can for them and their families during what we know will be a difficult transition. Change is never easy, and becomes even harder to embrace during times of turbulence and uncertainty. With that in mind, I’ve asked each business leader to reach out to their group with more information on this announcement as soon as possible. I realize this is an extremely difficult day for everyone in our group. But despite the challenges before us, I remain confident and optimistic about our future, because you really are the best team in the business. Anne[/I]
I agree with Anne Sweeney in that change is truly never easy. What continues to concern me is the obstructionist strategy of the Republicans. What was particuarly laughable was Jon Kyl's comments that the Republicans knew how to formulate policies that would result in creating jobs. He wants the country and the world to forget about the past 8 years. I Senator McCain announced an alternative stimulus plan that again relied on Tax Cuts. Mike Pence was on Hannity pushing the fiction of bringing "tax relief". The Republicans keep talking about the fact that this will not work. But, old solutions have not worked either--and that's the biggest problem.
There are some sensible views that are out there speaking up for insuring that the right steps are indeed taken. One of those sensible men is Jeffrey Sachs. In a recent column in the Financial Times of London, he wrote, ".....In rough numbers, the US Federal Tax System collects about 18 percent of gross national product, while the total of just five categories of public spending- Social Security (retirement and disability), health (medicare, medicaid), veterans benefits, defense and homeland security and interest payments-eat up about 18 percent of GNP. yet, government has more to do:...transport and other infrastructure; diplomacy and international aid; natural hazards mitigation; energy systems & help for the poor...". He went on to note that, "...let us add in the fact that state and local governments are broke...". Furthermore, he went to note in a Time Magazine article that, "....The time has arrived to restore national prosperity and security with a smartly rebalanced partnership between the public and private sector...". This means that tax cuts will alone not do the job. We have to make sure that we have reasonable a reasonable revenue mix with some targeted tax relief. But, total reliance on tax relief is not going to do it. This Winter Season of discontent should also force us all to look at other more sensible ways to manage risk and insurance. Lasse Pedersen and Nouriel Roubini have proposed an interesting system to manage capital requirements and to provide for an insurance program. I think that it something that ought to be looked at and looked at closely. This is quite important in light of the fact that Roubini was one of the few lonely voices who actually warned of this day. No one wanted to listen. I knew this could not be sustained. I bought into Alan Greespan's fiction that somehow we could fool the economic cycle. I am sure I was not alone.
Professor Sachs' admonition to all of us means that the work on the stimulus has to be finished and finished quickly. The country is broke and needs help now. I wrote in an earlier column on California's plight. California, as a standalone entity, would be the 8th economy in the world. But, it is broke. It is the most recent example of the calamity facing the country right now. The State Controller has stopped paying bills. The credit rating has been dropped. 2.7 Million people will not be getting a refund. Such calamity becomes ever more crucial as time goes by. It is crucial to realize that the money is being borrowed, though. I am quite worried about the neutral position of the Chinese about US Debt. I also worry about Gordon Brown's description of our Economic Winter as a "depression". I wonder if he knows something the rest of us don't.
UPDATE: Markets in Europe have been open for a bit. Swiss Re wrote down $ 5.3 Billion and got a cash infusion from Warren Buffet. Deutsche Bank has annouced its' first loss and sees a bleak outlook. Unilever Q4 does rise, but does not provide any guidance for 2009. Washington has to move and move now.
As I write this, Thursday has arrived. I am personally still coming to grips with the
historical nature of the election in the United States. I had been reading up on the analysis by all the pundits and the world reactions so far. The entire world seems to have embrace Senator Obama's election. From the reports I have seen, it appears that Senator Obama has hit the ground running. He got the job because he did run a superb campaign and did not lose his cool no matter what. But, as he begins to get ready, he sure has his work cut out for him. The market lost 5% on Wednesday alone. I am still trying to figure out why anyone would want this job.
I was out today on my on-going business commitments. I was amazed to see that folks ran out of newspapers to keep a memento of this election. I actually checked out all the newspaper stands and even the local starbucks. I did manage to pick up a copy of my local paper to keep it for posterity. But, Tuesday was the day I truly understood how significant the election was. For me, it started around 5:30 AM when I left to report to my first precinct. I was amazed as to the volunteers who were staffing the precinct. There was a chaplain from the local fire department, a student, a housewife and a retired gentleman. They all came together to do the right thing. They had gone out the night before to make sure everything was set up and ready to go. When I got there at 6:00 AM, voters were already then ready to go. My reaction was simple this: OMG!!! This was a tempo of things to come. At my second precinct, I again saw America. People were lining up and ready to go. I ran into a bit of snag. But, thanks to the team in place, we were able to resolve it with two minutes to spare. I then proceeded on to my third, fourth and fifth precincts checking on things and making sure everything was on track. As I continued to make the rounds of my precincts, I continued to be amazed by the folks who were showing up. The enthusiasm by all the poll workers uplifted my spirits. I will never forget when one of the volunteers ran to me with joy at reaching the 500th Vote. She had volunteered for that poll and that school for years. It was a long day. But it was a day to be proud of because I saw America at its' best.
I read reports on stuff going wrong. I had two machines that went down. I also had poll watchers keeping a watchful eye. I also had folks advocating for the position they were either for or against while adhering to the 100 ft boundary that was mandated by law. I had folks who had an Obama Sticker, a Republican Proud Shirt who walked in and were reminded to be nonpartisan. But, it was a great experience. But, of course, I was as interested in the elections despite my commitment of service to the Registrar of Voters. I started getting the first returns which pointed to an Obama Victory. I also heard Senator McCain very gracious concession speech. It was the Senator McCain I knew who fought the big spenders and who the patriot was. I also heard Senator Obama speak as well. He told the country and the world of the challenges ahead. He gave the world hope and promised that the world will overcome. I think he set the tone for what he is going to do.
The Democrats had a very good night on Tuesday. There were a lot of celebrations. As I have come to grips with the significance of what has happened, I am also quite mindful of the profound challenges that remain. The world economy is in shambles. We have two wars that do not seem to want to end. We have an Auto Industry that is about to die off. I read a report this morning that a potential death of the Auto Industry will cost 2.3 Million jobs. He will also have to deal with those of us who have begun to speak up and will support him when appropriate and will speak up when he is wrong. I take comfort in his stance on Afghanistan, for instance. I wrote about it earlier in my daily commentary whereby I saw how he understood the nature of the government and the need to have a change in strategy. I will be assessing who is going get the top appointments. I think this will set the tone on how he is going to govern.
The work begins. The experiment we all call America is about to enter a new era. America will renew yet again. All of us in America must do our part. I intend to do mine.
I admit I was a late convert, because I began this campaign as a supporter of John Edwards. John Edwards spoke of the two Americas that we have come to know so well now. But, I was proud to have cast my vote for Senator Obama because I came to realize how he embraced the need to elevate the down and out. He has understood and reminded all of us that everyone matters. His story is America's Story. He has given hope to all of us with weird names and a colorful background the way ahead. His vision is bold and energetic to help lift us all. We have profound challenges that we must band together to rebuild.
Many say it will be close. Being only human, I can't help but reflect what I could have done differently. I tried to step up, make the calls, contribute and to do my bit to "hopefully" contribute to this ever-growing community. For those who have not voted yet, I urge all to note that every vote does count. Don't forget to vote. Nothing but your future depends on it.
I am listening to McCain on NBC's Meet the Press right now. He is optimistic he is going to win and thinks the polls are bogus. He can dream, I suppose. But, the thing that is sickening right now is his assertions about the tax policy (this notion of taxing everyone over $ 42K a year), healthcare policy (imposing a "fine" on small businesses" among other things must be answered and answered hard in my view. I am confident that the Campaign team is listening as intently as well. It ain't over yet...that's for sure!!!
...I am worried about complacency by supporters. Everyone needs to remember that every vote counts!!! As I write this, Early voting has begun. I have already voted and was proud to have cast my vote for Senator Obama. In the midst of all the doom and gloom, Senator Obama has continued to remind us to keep our head, remain hopeful and not lose sight of the fact that our best days are ahead of us. Despite all that has been thrown at him, he has remained cool. Mrs. Obama noted how he got that from his "toot", his grandmother. As the campaign draws down, the increased bankrupcy of the Republican argument becomes ever more. Although I have voted, I'll try and work to phone bank through the MYBO campaign to do my tidbit for the campaign. I urge all to do the same. We can't rest. I also trust that this ever-growing community agrees that the real work begins November 5.
As I conclude, I join many in wishing Senator Obama's Grandmother the very best. From what Senator Obama has shared with us, she's no pushoever and will overcome!!! Onward to Victory.....
Source: http://www.outsiderviews.com, retrieved 10/15/2008
There is a report on Al Jazeera English right now about defections hitting Afghan forces. It quotes an Afghan Police Commander named Sulieman Ameri who was apparently a Afghan Police Officers who defected with 16 of his officers. He used to patrol near the border with Iran. They are taking weapons that the West has given them and are turning the weapons against the very people that they received the training from. I have repeatedly warned about this in my comments. Their influence is spreading. I regard it as a threat. If the Taliban truly live up to their puritan beliefs and practice Islam in the fashion that accepted the enlightened role of women, embraced the role of education and technology, then the west may have something to talk about. But, destroying cultural icons, relying on poppy cultivation and keeping women in servitude is simply not the way. But, the useless clown who is the so-called President of Afghanistan is increasingly ineffective. He is a heck of a sales guy, though. He can truly sell the bridge to no where. When the West wakes up to the realities on the ground is another issue. As I noted in my previous comments, the U.S. Defense Secretary noted that a political understanding will eventually have to be reached with the Taliban. The U.S. cannot truly sustain the committment as it stands. The U.S. must tend to pressing domestic concerns and rebuild an image that has been tattered. The Republicans seem not to understand that. That's why when the clown Karzai said that Sarah Palin asked the right questions, I noted that even if Sarah Palin may have asked the right questions, Palin was asking the wrong guy.
Source: http://www.outsiderviews.com, retrieved September 24, 2008
Senator McCain just came out with a statement suspending the Presidential Campaign. In his comments, he notes that the campaign can wait because the economic crisis the country faces is historic. Warren Buffett compared it to 9/11. I believe it is.I, along with many other observers, will see how this plays out. President Bush is also about to speak to the country later on tonight. Congressional hearings are going on. To their credit, the members of Congress are asknig the tough questions. There are reports that there were conversations between Senators Obama and McCain on this. Apparently Senator Obama suggested a joint statement on this. Yet, Senator McCain came out with a statement to look "Presidential". What Senator McCain has done is pure politics. His notion of "country first" will not wash based on the move he made. He did it during the convention and he is doing it again. The right thing would have been for both Senators to have come out with a unified statement to underscore the nature of the calamity facing us. Now, Senator Obama has to hedge his bets and it may seem as if he is "following" Senator McCain. Senator McCain was wrong, in my view, to seize the moment to make a political statement. Senator McCain is not President yet. He needs to remember that.
I trust that the team who monitors the site will pass on this message to Senator Biden:
"...I am sorry I read on CNN earlier todaay that you were not proud that you were not among the richest....don't be. You decided to make a difference and there are many of us who are thankful for such dedicated folks who gave their lives in the service of others. Although a thank you is not enough, it is all that I can offer you sir. I wish you all the best....."
I wrote this in http://www.outsiderviews.com and wanted to share these thoughts with the community:
Governor Palin's interview with Charlie Gibson was wide-ranging. I did find her to be direct and on pointe. What I failed to realize when I listened to the excerpts again was how cookie-cutter the responses were. I was also frankly shocked by how uninformed she was. Dick Cheney, at least, had 30 years of government service when George W. Bush picked him to be Vice President. The world is a lot more complicated than the simple notion of shooting your way to a solving the "problem":Governor Palin's answer about Iran truly bothered me. I do agree with her in one respect: meeting foreign leaders does not necessarily qualify you to be President. However, what she failed to say was that Senator McCain's main contention is that he knows foreign leaders and he knows how to deal with the challenges. But, as Vice President, you have to have a rudimentary understanding of the key actors on the world stage. What she totally missed was the fact that Ahmadinejad is subservient to the Supreme Leader in Iran. The clerics in Iran are by nature very conservative and will hedge their bets. So, the folks who prepared her failed her miserably.Now, as for Pakistan, the problem is that the committment to cross the border is going to inflame the border regions. The United States does not seem to realize that at all. The non-policy of the past eight years has resulted in Pakistan being on fire. Pakistan is the central front on the war on terror. The message I am getting is that McCain-Palin will not hestitate to attack Pakistan. If that is in fact the case, what next?There is also another part of Governor Palin's record that FactCheck.Org just debunked. She claims (and rightly so) that Energy Security and National Security are indeed interrelated. But, her outlandish claim that Alaska supplies 20% of the US Domestic Energy Supply is just plain wrong. These sort of half-truths and hyped up facts will continue. This leads me to think that if one does not have a record to run on, one will go to attack and question the record of others. I view her implicit attack on Senator Biden as simply out of line. She noted that Senator Biden is a member of the Washington Establishment with a resume. With all due respect to Governor Palin, Senator Biden is one of the most honorable members of Congress who has made a difference. She should be ashamed of herself to attack such a man who is one of the poorest men in Congress. He dedicated his life to Public service and does not even have a second home. The McCain Campaign rode the news cycle for two days about Senator Obama's lipstick in a pig remark. Yet, Governor Palin is allowed to get away with such a remark. It is getting nastier by the day....Thankfully, Hurricane IKE is going to be a reprieve from this for a while....
Folks,
This is the latest "cry-baby" e-mail from the McCain Campaign. They are basing this nonsense on a FactCheck.Org article which was debunked by FactCheck.Org itself. John Fund wrote bascially a lie, the McCain-Palin campaign is running with it to raise money thru a compliant 527 and the RNC. I can understand why Senator Obama opted out of the public financing system precisely for this kind of nonsense. The Republicans have to be held to account so that we can be focused on the issues.
The Email is noted below for the community. In addition, the FactCheck.Org rebuttal has also been noted here in this link: http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/mccain-palin_distorts_our_finding.html
Friends,
You've surely seen the shameful attacks Senator Obama and his liberal allies have launched against our vice presidential nominee, Governor Sarah Palin.
Even before our national convention, the Obama campaign dispatched what The Wall Street Journal called a "mini-army of 30 lawyers, investigators and opposition researchers" to Alaska to dig up dirt for their personal attacks on Governor Palin and her family. FactCheck.org has called the attacks on Governor Palin, "completely false" and "misleading." However, the Obama Democrats continue to launch these attacks, hoping you'll never find out the truth.
These misleading, offensive attacks must be stopped. That's why we're asking you to follow this link immediately to give any amount you can afford - whether it's $25 or $250 - to McCain-Palin Victory 2008, a joint committee we have formed to ensure we can respond to these shameful attacks and elect our reform ticket from top to bottom on Election Day.
We are rapidly responding to the Obama Democrats' attacks on Governor Palin and you can help by following this link right now to give $25, $50, $100, $250 or more to McCain-Palin Victory 2008.
Your support is critical to our Party's effort in exposing these false attacks. Thank you.
Sincerely,The McCain-Palin Victory 2008 Team
P.S. If you are offended by the outrageous attacks on Governor Sarah Palin from the Obama campaign and their liberal allies, we urge you to follow this link immediately. The McCain-Palin Victory 2008 committee is working day and night to elect our reform ticket and reject these false attacks. Please show your support with a generous donation. Thank you.
I wrote brieflly about this in http://www.outsiderviews.com earlier today:
Well, for starters, Dick Morris just called it: John McCain has been elected President. What Dick and the rest of the pundits seem to forget that there are about 200 million of us who will vote on November 4. ....
Life does move on, though. Right now, Iraq's lauded achievements seem to be quite illusory. The Republicans claimed that we are about to win. This claim goes contrary to a front page story in today's Los Angeles Times noting that General Petraus is recommending against an immediate drawdown due to a increased fear that violence will in fact potentially pick up. In addition, the fact does in fact remain that Iraq has in fact gone through a defacto partition. Kurdistan has its' representatives at the UN, Jalal Talabani's son is the defacto Ambassador to the US and the region has its' own airline. So, this notion of a unified Iraq is a myth. Now, Barzani is playing a high stakes game to expand the Kurdistan region. So, this myth pushed by the Republicans is an outright lie. The Americans are stuck in the middle.
One thing I forgot to mention in this was that it is either the son or the nephew of the Kurdistan leader, Masoud Barzani, is the Prime Minister. Among the many questions the Adminstration has never answer is why does Kurdistan call itself a government with a President and a Prime Minister. When you visit their site at http://www.krg.org, you would think that you have visited another country. So, this fiction that the Republicans are pushing is simply a lie.
I also do have one profound concern: George W. Bush may agree to a troop cut to perpetuate the fiction that in fact the situation is getting better--against the advise of his commanders. On a high note, I just caught a glimpse of Joe Biden on CNN. He was in high spirits...with fightin' Joe Biden at Barack's side, there ain't no stopping the juggernaut..and let the pundits go eat sand!!!
Every Cindy McCain agreed that today is the day the real battle begins....and it will be quite a battle......
P.S: France, Qatar and Turkey have stepped into the vaccum left by the engagement the United States has had in Iraq. Among the many things, the Republicans forgot to address reality.
Well, the Republican Attack Dogs were at it, weren't they? I am not going to lose sleep over it, because we're right on the issues. They can attack, mischaracterize, lie and mislead. This is not 2000 or 2004. Senator Obama called for a civil campaign focused on the issues. I will be remis if I did not note that they attacked his character and in essence accused him of treason. If this is going to be a battle about patriotism and love of country, let's have it. They don't have the monopoly on patriotism and love of country. They seem to think they do--and they tried to tell this to the country tonight. How wrong they are!!!
BTW, before I close, Wolf Blitzer characterized Sarah Palin's speech as "inspiring". Well, I was not inspired...but sickened by the attacks. If Sarah Palin represents change, I want none of it.
Remember....the real campaign begins September 5.
The McCain campaign said that Governor Palin was fully vetted. As Senator Obama reminded us (and rightly so) the discussion on her daughter's pregnancy is off limits. Ms. Palin's privacy must be respected. There must be a degree of honor and intergrity that should be the norm in our politics.
However, Governor Palin's Ethics investigation continues. Kyra Phillips of CNN commented on Larry King last night that the lead investigator in Alaska has been uncovering evidence daily. The Lawyer for Governor Palin, according to reports, is in a legal tussle on whether the Alaska legislature is the right venue for this investigation to continue. On top of that, the "bridge to no where" which was touted as an example of Governor Palin standing up to the special interests was debunked by a report on The Real News. It is available at the following URL: http://therealnews.com/c.php?c=080901YT.
As the Republicans get back to the business at hand, I wanted the MYBO community to be aware of this editorial in today's Financial Times. Financial Times is not exactly a fan of Democrat. Yet, this article makes as compelling a case as to why Senator McCain is not the "safe" and "steady" choice that the Republicans are leading us to believe--and George W. Bush will supposedly remind us later on when he speaks from the White House.
Here is the link:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e016c06-7885-11dd-acc3-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
If the link does not work, please go to the FT Website at http://www.ft.com do a search under Sarah Palin and Gideon Rachman and you ought to be able to pull it.
Source: http://www.outsiderviews.com, retrieved August 30, 2008
This Sunday's Meet the Press had the Governor of Minnesota on. The stance that the Governor of Minnesota has taken is exactly the reason I will not even consider voting for McCain-Palin. The Governor of Minnesota attacked Senator Obama for his experience and views. What he fails to tell the country is that Senator Obama has run a national campaign for almost 20 months. The 50-state campaign he has run is an example of leadership and executive management that shows judgement and vision. His pick of Joe Biden is a master stroke. It shows that he is not afraid of dissent. I have already written about the interesting character Governor Palin is. She has a common background. But, so does Joe Biden and Barack Obama. She has apparently made a difference in Alaska. But, the office of Vice President has changed and changed considerably. Senator McCain, in my view, made a profound mistake because he did not truly understand the evolution of the power of the office of the Vice President. Although Governor Palin has an expertise in energy, the expertise in energy to me is quite short sighted and is frankly totally irresponsible in terms of pushing for drilling. Also, Senator McCain has to realize his age. I have never, ever held that against him and will not do so. But, unfortuantely, when I hear 32 year olds dying of heart attacks I have to bring the judgement of the Senator into account in this regard. As for Hillary Supporters moving over, I say to Governor Palin: dream on!!! I am also frankly disappointed that the Republican Ticket went to Missisipl to be briefed on Hurricane Preparations. This is playing politics, pure and simple. It seems to me that the responsible thing to have done is to have stayed away and allowed officials to do what they needed to do. The Republicans seem to be having a free reign right now yet again. I wonder what excuse the Republicans will have about not getting good coverage. If anything, the Meet the Press roundtable showed how McCain is highly thought off as a Maverick. McCain I (as the Economist called it) would have given the Democrats a run for their money. But, the conservative base had to be secured. Governor Palin is the perfect candidate to do that. But, what about the rest of us? I guess we don't count.
As I have been monitoring Gustav like the rest of the country, BBC News just reported that John McCain and Sarah Palin are to travel to Missisipi to assess hurricane readiness. Although I hope it is not a political move, I think it is. Shame on John McCain and the Republicans!!! This is not the time to be playing politics. If it was the other way around, the Republicans and their Amen crowd in talk radio would be crying foul. The best thing for all candidates to do is to stay out of the way, let the authorities do what they need to do and be united in their after-action response.
I just got done, like all of you, listening to Michelle Obama's speech. All I can say is Wow!!! The media told us that she was the closer...and to me she did it!!!
As we continue to watch the campaign, I wanted to pass this on from the McCain folks that I just got. They're starting to get nervous..and that I find a good thing.....Let's do what we can to keep 'em on the edge!!!
Interesting read....enjoy!!!
Team - I wanted to share a memo from our Director of Strategy, Sarah Simmons. After naming his running-mate, Senator Joe Biden, our campaign believes Senator Obama will receive a bump in polling numbers after this week's Democratic Convention in Denver. Senator Obama's bump in the polls means we need to re-double our efforts this week as we head into our own Convention starting September 1st. We're focused on electing the man we all know is ready to lead, a man who puts his country before all else, John McCain. That's why I'm asking you to make an immediate donation to our campaign so we have the financial resources necessary heading into our Convention next week. Your generous support is critical as we're quickly approaching our August 31st deadline- the last day to accept your primary donations. As of September 1st, we'll be limited in the amount of money we can spend to elect John McCain. Senator Obama broke his promise to accept federal funds and will be able to spend whatever he wants to defeat us. Any amount you can give today- up to the legal limit of $2,300 will go a long way in helping us reach our financial goals by the end of the month. Please take a few minutes to read Sarah's memo and if you can, make a contribution to our campaign. As always, I thank you for your time and support. Many Thanks-Rick_____________________________
Rick DavisCampaign ManagerJohn McCain 2008
From: Simmons, SarahSent: Friday, August 22, 2008 7:32 AM To: All Staff CC: Rick DavisSubject: Strategy Memo: Obama's Convention Bounce
TO: Interested Parties FROM: Sarah Simmons, Director of Strategy RE: Obama's Convention BounceDATE: August 22, 2008 Monday marks the beginning of the Democratic National Convention in Denver. A combination of factors makes this particular convention historic on many levels. Democrats have just completed an incredibly compelling primary cycle that has both energized and divided the Democratic Party. Because of the unique nature of the Democratic primary, we believe Obama will receive a significant bump from his convention. This cycle mirrors Bill Clinton's Democratic convention in 1992: A historic 16-point bump. Barack Obama is more similarly situated to Bill Clinton in 1992 than any other candidate in recent history. Bill Clinton was a new candidate on the national scene; he was running in a "change" oriented election cycle and the economy was voters' top issue -- a dynamic he was able to capitalize on. He received a 16-point bump coming out of his convention. Obama is also a "new" candidate in a change-oriented environment. And, like Bill Clinton, he will spend the convention presenting himself as the agent of change who will fix the economy. Obama will ride his VP bump. In addition to Obama taking advantage of the political environment, he will announce his Vice Presidential candidate late this week. This announcement typically gives a candidate a 5-point temporary bump that dissipates. However, Obama's timing allows him to maximize his Vice Presidential bump and sustain press attention for the course of the week. He will ride the wave of an announcement from late this week (announcement expected by Saturday) through his speech on Thursday. This means that whatever bump he gains from the announcement has the potential to be lasting. Obama will correct his underperformance with Hillary Clinton's primary voters and emerge with a much more cohesive base. This convention gives Obama a platform to unite his base. There continues to be a divide in the Democratic base: Between 10-15% of Democrats are voting for McCain or sitting on the fence. In target states, that number is even higher, between 15-20% in many surveys. The Obama campaign knows that winning or losing in states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania depends on Obama's ability to bring these voters home. If his convention successfully showcases Hillary Clinton and heals the wounds from the primary, he will move large groups of voters in those key places. Obama's stadium address on Thursday -- the 45th anniversary of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have A Dream" speech -- will result in effusive and overwhelming press coverage. On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech, as has been his trademark. The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama's place in history. For example, The Associated Press today published an article comparing the historic nature of the addresses - a week before Obama's speech. This coverage will be impenetrable and will undoubtedly impact the polls. We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment.
