Let’s be honest. We didn’t really expect Congress to come up with a "bold" stimulus plan, did we? But do we agree that NO action will only aggravate our current crisis?
The GOP surprised us when it failed to respond more constructively to the bipartisan overture from Barack Obama. I personally witnessed the precedent-setting bipartisan dinner for his defeated opponent (my photo of the President-elect at the dinner honoring McCain, January 19) and noted the subsequent meetings with Congressional Republicans. And what did we get in the way of proposals from the loyal opposition? More of the dogma-driven, supply-side ideology that contributed to our current mess: tax cuts!
On the other hand, GOP critics have a point: the bill that passed the House and was embraced by Obama essentially is an accumulation of favorite Democratic spending proposals.
What is missing is CHANGE. The CHANGE Obama advocated in his campaign for the Presidency. The CHANGE that won him a resounding mandate to govern for four years. The CHANGE from policies that have worked to benefit few and imperil many. Where are the first steps toward affordable health care, a sustainable green economy and alternative energy? And why are we not moving boldly to address the systemic failures that underlie the current crisis in credit markets?
Obama asked for ideas. And Paul Krugman and Robert Reich, among others, obliged. But what these brilliant men offer is predictable: rationales for orthodox Keynesian solutions and concern about labor market distortions, respectively. More is needed, not just in additional spending, but in fresh ideas that advance the President's policy agenda. So, if suggestions are still welcomed, here is my two-cents worth. And please do keep the CHANGE.
Health Care
Obama has promised the nation affordable health care similar to his own Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP), to be available to all by the end of his first term. There is no need to back off this goal. Health care is one of the largest drags on our economy and the stimulus bill provides a real opportunity to begin managing its cost. In addition to the bill’s provisions to help state governments fund Medicare and work projects, I suggest that the federal government reimburse all state and local governments for their employer's share of health care for the rest of this year. In exchange, recipients may not fire government workers and must commit to integrating their health care plans with the existing FEHBP starting in 2010. That provides additional and immediate financial assistance to state and local governments, while paving the way for the establishment of a Public Employees Health Benefits Program. By January 2010, the federal government’s negotiated health care program would expand its base and economies of scale. The next step will be to apply the system to businesses, and subsequently to capture the un- and under-insured.
Energy Independence
Most honest leaders recognize that in due course government will have to produce the substantial additional revenue to pay for the stimulus. But good luck finding a politician willing to propose increasing taxes of any kind. So let me suggest instead a hefty tariff on imported oil to fund the “green economy.” A tariff of 50 percent or more on the landed cost of all imported energy (probably with some form of accommodation for our NAFTA partners) can be justified because of national security as well as the external costs to our environment inherent in the use of fossil fuels. And such a levy would promote conservation, subsidize domestic production, and help to fund and protect our investments in alternative energy. This is a measure that should be welcomed by Republicans who advocate "drill, baby, drill” as well as environmentalists interested in promoting clean energy. The windfall earned by American producers could be invested domestically or taxed as profits. And while there may be a marginal increase of fuel cost at the pump, it will pale in comparison with the amounts we forked over to foreign potentates rather than our own Treasury these past few years, when oil was effectively 200% greater than its current price.
Reestablish a ‘Risk-Free’ Investment Benchmark
Explanations for our current credit crisis and financial market meltdown abound, including the Washington Post's excellent series. But absent from all the expert analyses is any mention of the Treasury Department's October 2001 decision to discontinue issuing 30-year Bonds. That decision, on the heels of 9/11 and the cusp of Bush's costly war on terror, both lowered mortgage yields and prompted increased sales of bundled mortgages marketed as alternative 'risk-free' instruments, which in turn fueled the housing bubble and distorted both government and corporate credit point spreads. Treasury Bond auctions have resumed, but a clear provision to finance America’s recovery through borrowing would repair yield spreads – both between short and long term sovereign debt and in relation to all other debt instruments. Transparent budget financing will help re-establish more realistic risk pricing and global confidence in the US economy. But the 30-year Bond will not regain its position as a benchmark for 'risk-free' long-term investment if Fed meddling in the market, as it proposes to do with its planned purchase of Treasuries from troubled banks. In fact, this central-bankers-gone-wild approach will only create a greater Treasury bubble that will seriously aggravate our problems. Once markets are allowed to properly price the cost and risk of our recovery without Fed manipulation, global confidence in the US economy has a chance to be recover.
So Pay the Bill, and Keep the CHANGE
Barack Obama attended his last inaugural event, the Staff Ball, at the DC Armory on January 21. But he arrived after a performance by the opening act, Arcade Fire. So here are some insightful lysircs from their “Intervention”:
You say it's money that we need As if we're only mouths to feed I know no matter what you say There are some debts you'll never pay
You say it's money that we need
As if we're only mouths to feed
I know no matter what you say
There are some debts you'll never pay
The message is relevant to the stimulus bill now before Congress.
We can act responsibly and cautiously if we:
Pay the Bill and Keep the CHANGE.
Check out the story behind the Obama logo as told by Sol Sender, who led its creative development. Sender recounts the story in two parts on the VSA Partners website. A graphic presentation of the other ideas that were considered in the development process leading up to the ultimate selection of the now ubiquitous design is at "Obama logo ideas that weren't chosen."
Both parts of Sol's interview are on YouTube. And if you advance to minute 2:18 on "Sol Sender - Logo Design Part 2 of 2" you will see our Food Tasters for Obama logo -- conceived by me and executed by my son Zach -- used as an example of the "viral expression" of the grassroots movement.
We will be back with more political analysis and satire soon. If you would like to be notified when a new article is posted join Food Tasters For Obama.
Dear Friends:
To those of you who so kindly congratulated me for Tuesday’s election outcome, as if Barack Obama’s victory resulted from my personal and deeply committed efforts. I thank you for your generous comments.
To those who may have wondered how I fared in “radio silence” for six weeks on the Ohio battleground. Be assured that I survived.
To those who do not know me or are unfamiliar with my previous descriptions of the realities and ironies of the 2008 election. What follows is the final chapter of my life as a political activist, a missionary for democracy, an apostle of Change. Hopefully you will also understand how it is that for the first three nights after I returned home I woke up from the same dream in which I wander nameless streets in search of faceless voters.
The Buckeye State
On September 23 I joined the Ohio Campaign for Change as a member of its newly created Vote Corps. The invitation had warned of 14-hour days, seven days a week, right up through Election Day. I accepted because the Obama campaign considered this important enough to make it a paid position and because it was in the one state McCain had to win to become President.
I left home certain that my life experiences -- in retail sales, as diplomat and political officer, and Obama volunteer in seven states – would be useful in the Buckeye State. Stopping at Starbucks on the way out of Burlington that Sunday morning, I noticed the first trace of red on the outer edge of a leaf on a small maple tree in the parking lot. I realized that by the time I returned to Vermont the leaf peepers would have come and gone. Fortunately, it turned out to be a mild autumn in Ohio that showcased the Buckeye State’s own colorful foliage.
The Akron Vote Corps
A hundred of us reported to Columbus for Vote Corps training and by the first night we were already deployed across the state. I was assigned to the city of Akron, birthplace of Cleveland Cavaliers star LeBron James and Pretenders’ singer-songwriter Chrissie Hynde, who wrote about her birthplace in “My City Was Gone”. The Akron Campaign for Change Office was headed by Regional Field Director Max Lesko. In charge of Summit and Portage Counties, he proved himself a very capable and genial manager. My hosts, Cathy and David, and their daughter Nicky, lived in a northwest suburb. Their friendship and cozy accommodations would be my home for the next six weeks.
At first the Akron Vote Corps consisted of six whites, from metropolitan DC, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Texas and California. Like most of the Obama staff and volunteers I met during the primaries, they were young and well-educated. In fact, I was two-and-a-half times their average age. By the end of the second week we lost one and gained five new members. Our new team-mates were all African Americans, from California, Texas and Georgia. Their average age was early forties and many had worked on the Kerry campaign. One of my first initiatives was to buy half a dozen fingerless gloves for our new friends from the warm weather states. Our Vote Corps was rounded out by a “Lead,” a young lawyer from Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown’s Washington staff.
The Vote Corps’ mission was to register voters, identify supporters and get out the vote for Barack Obama. Our primary targets were “Sporadics,” first time voters and people who voted Democratic in the past, but did not always turn out. For a while we were also instructed to knock on every single door in a targeted neighborhood. I successfully resisted attempts to create competition within our group for most doors knocked, “Doors” being the campaign’s primary measure for the work accomplished by staff and volunteers. My feeling was that competition focused on this imperfect metric would distort our effort, demoralize some members of our group, and sacrifice quality for quantity. For in the end, the real measure of our success would be the vote count on Election Day. And to that end, it was our diligence after the “knock” that would help determione the outcome.
Registration
Our first task was registering new voters and re-registering people who had moved before the deadline of October 6. We knocked on doors and scoured bus stops and other public places to register as many people as possible. Most people were already registered, as they clearly understood the importance of this election. Those who had not yet done so enthusiastically signed up, particularly in the African-American community. My first Saturday in Akron, I missed my first grandchild’s first birthday party back in Virginia. But my reward on that day was registering many first-time voters, including former felons who had recently regained the rights of other free men and women.
Many of our Sporadics were transients who frequently moved from one run-down Akron neighborhood to another. This city was in decline for a long time, and the recent economic downturn just aggravated conditions. In older residential neighborhoods there are a growing number of abandoned homes or houses soon to be vacated due to lost jobs or foreclosure. Many porches are marked by hand-painted signs announcing “Copper Already Stolen” or littered with trash by people who have given up. It is in this environment that we spread our message of Hope and Change.
Starting on September 30, we entered “golden week” when voters could both register and vote early. Ohio’s new rules allowed “no fault” early voting by absentee ballot or in person. A single polling place was created for Summit County at the Job Center in northeast Akron. The Job Center is well-known, because job losses have been ongoing for many years. The building, also known by locals as “the old library,” is next to another landmark, the County’s Auto Title Office. For those without cars, bus number 12 took people there from downtown in 15 minutes.
Early Voting
Registration and early voting at the Job Center was very convenient. Open every day, including Saturday and Sunday, there were 50 polling booths and seating for voters waiting for their paper ballots. But many Ohioans, especially African Americans disenfranchised in previous elections were suspicious. They worried that ballots were going to “disappear,” as reportedly happened in 2004 in Cuyahoga County. Overcoming these legitimate concerns required some persuasion. Our most important argument was: “Barack Obama wants his supporters to vote early.” That usually did it. We helped to spread the word that this process would protect, not suppress voting rights. And by November 3, the daily early vote turnout had grown from hundreds to thousands, the wait from 15 minutes to three hours.
By my third week I had developed a routine for creating a multiplier effect in conversation with early voters. Once they had made an Early Vote Commit, I introduced community organizing techniques to build on the widespread desire to help Obama get elected. Within the family, a grandparent or parent, or maybe the principal driver would agree to take responsibility for getting the entire household to vote early. I also encouraged voters to take along a relative or friend, or a neighbor who needed a ride.
Finally, I would make the following pitch:
“I’m working for Obama and I want you to work for him too. So I’m going to deputize you. No badge, no pay, just the satisfaction of knowing you helped to elect Barack Obama."
That always earned a smile. Then I continued:
"Now I'm sure you know someone who wouldn’t vote unless you drag their lazy a-- to the Job Center to vote. Do you know anyone like that?”
I could tell when they were hooked. Eyes turned skyward. Faces revealed minds thinking of who they would get to early vote. A knowing smile indicated they knew exactly who they would take along. In closing I urged them to let everyone know how easy it was to vote at the Job Center and that Obama wanted them to do so. By the time I left their door, the early voter had been empowered and had taken ownership of the Obama campaign. Now it was their campaign too.
Get Out The Vote
During our last week in Ohio, the Vote Corps was dissolved. We were detailed to assist Field Organizers with their neighborhood teams of volunteers, which were part of the Ohio get out the vote (GOTV) strategy at the precinct level.
I was assigned to Barberton to work for Sol, an energetic field organizer from Texas. My main “turf” was the south Akron neighborhood of Kenmore. Unlike my earlier work with Sporadics in largely African American neighborhoods, I was instructed to “persuade” and “motivate” the remaining “Undecided” voters. But with Election Day closing in fast, there would only be minutes to talk to any single voter.
In Barberton and Kenmore, the Undecideds were predominantly white, working class Democrats. Most did not want to vote for McCain, but were not yet sure about Barack Obama. I understood their concern. Not only was Obama a relatively new and unknown political personality. Most of these voters had supported Hillary in the March primary. And like voters elsewhere, they were being bombarded with smear emails, Republican mailings about Ayers and NRA propaganda warning Obama would take away their guns.
With openly racist voters there was the curt “Thanks for your time.” But it was not difficult to pull the other undecided voters off the fence, especially with the credibility of being an older white man with a knowledge of history and 23 years of federal service under five US Presidents. These voters knew that Obama and Hillary shared a common policy agenda and that she was campaigning hard for the Democratic ticket. They also recognized Rove tactics and our argument that: “They can’t win with the truth, so they are attacking him with lies.” Second amendment concerns were easily neutralized with Biden’s quote: “No one’s taking away my Beretta.” But the simplest most effective argument was “Are you happy with the way things are going or do you want change?” And Change is what voters wanted more than anything this year.
Election Day
November 3rd and 4th were taken up with the final GOTV effort, primarily distributing door hangers and reminding voters of their polling places. From 3:30 pm on Election Day until it was too dark to read house numbers, I scoured for remaining undecided voters who had yet to cast their ballots. I actually found several and they agreed to go to their local poll station, which by then was no longer crowded.
I was at the Barberton volunteers’ party at Lake Anna Hall when MSNBC announced Ohio for Obama. Having already won Pennsylvania, I knew it was all over except for reaching 270 electoral votes. While happy, I was so physically and mentally exhausted that the victory did not seem real. I headed back to my host family home and watched the candidates’ speeches before turning in and resting for the long drive home. Now as my dreams of knocking on doors in Ohio recede, the enormity of our achievement and the challenges facing Barack Obama are coming into better focus. I have no idea what my next step will be, but I will continue to do what I can to get our country back on the right track.
Epilogue
After 40 days of walking the streets of Summit County, I had knocked on or distributed campaign literature at over 4000 doors.
More importantly, I had in-person conversations with more than 1500 voters and obtained about 1000 Early Vote Commits, which probably understates the number of people who were convinced to go to the Job Center. Along the way I also helped remove several hundred bad addresses from our “Turf,” easing the task of later attempts by volunteers to find our voters.
The Akron Vote Corps’ effort over five weeks contributed greatly to the early vote turnout, which by Election Day totaled 90,000, or fully one-third of the 272,000 ballots cast in Summit County. And while he won Ohio’s 20 electoral votes with 51% of the state’s popular vote, Barack Obama won Summit County with 57.45%.
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I got the call last week and tomorrow I leave for the American heartland to join the Obama campaign officially. My “deployment” is not a total surprise, as I did my “basic training” in Chicago at Camp Obama in June 2007 and since then have volunteered in seven states. Independent of the campaign, I conducted “psy-ops” on the net as a blogger and worked with other supporters in “rapid response” to online critics and negative media. But now I am called to official duty and by this time next week I will be on the “front lines” in a crucial swing state.
Am I to be part of a Pre-electoral “Surge”, a sort of “counter-insurgency doctrine” applied to this election in the closing days of the Presidential campaign? That may be what Obama’s deputy national campaign director Steve Hildebrand has in mind to ensure Victory on November 4. He is the “four-star general” who won the first battle for the nomination when Obama took the Iowa caucus. Lately Hildebrand has been moving his troops around in what looks like an attempt to “clear, hold, and build” support in swing states. That is where organization, registration, and turnout could deliver the vote margin that spells the difference between “victory and defeat.”
Reports from Georgia confirm Hildebrand has “drawn down” his forces in Georgia and redeployed elsewhere. That does not imply Obama has abandoned Georgia, but does mean a greater reliance on remaining staff backed by an army of local volunteers who delivered a decisive primary win. At the same time, the redeployment reflects a need to strengthen Obama’s presence in states where he lost to Hillary Clinton and did not develop as much grass roots support. It looks and sounds like its erstwhile namesake in Iraq, but this surge too can only succeed if certain other conditions apply.
Perhaps the most important of those conditions is “political reconciliation.” The Denver convention speeches of Hillary and Bill Clinton marked a symbolic end to internal Democratic opposition to Obama’s nomination. Some small “rebel factions” of the party had intended to continue “resistance”. But John McCain’s subsequent nomination of Sarah Palin as his running mate sparked a “civil awakening” and the rebellion fell flat. Now former adversaries are working to elect Obama and avoid the frightening prospect of a “fundamentalist” religious right Republican Administration. What remains for the Obama forces is to reassure independent voters and moderate Republicans that Obama is a “safe” choice who will represent their interests.
The Obama campaign also benefits from improved intelligence on voting conditions in some key swing states where there were serious problems at the polls in 2000 and 2004. His base is alert to Republican tactics designed to intimidate and disenfranchise voters, and sabotaging elections. As they obtain “actionable intelligence” the campaign will be able to address problems promptly. And after replacing some local elected officials with Democrats, they can count on better cooperation to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.
As I leave for the front I anticipate this will be my last posting for a while. But I expect that this surge too will succeed “beyond our wildest dreams.”
10. He doesn't know how to post a job opening on Monster.com
9. Republicans would consider him an "elitist"
8. His high dosage of Metamucil already flushes all toxins from his body
7. Sarah Palin would fire them and replace them with Wasilla High School grads
6. He’s not sure where they would sit in the mess hall
5. The deaths of Socrates, Napoleon and Lenin were covered in courses he failed at Annapolis
4. He loves to gamble with dice, VP selections and, of course, with his health
3. You don't eat barracuda – it eats you
2. Lipstick (just had to mention that, because it seems to be on everyone’s lips lately)
And finally, the number one reason McCain will not hire food tasters:
1. He doesn’t need to because on November 4 Barack Obama will eat his lunch
The McCain campaign has kept up the drumbeat for weeks now charging Barack Obama would raise your taxes, even though they leave out the fact that this only applies to those who make over $250,000. They also don't mention that those are the same people who were the only real beneficiaries of the Bush tax cuts.
Well Johnnie Mac's tax claims are effectively moot now that the Bush Administration has stepped in to salvage Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (no relation to the candidate, except that neither can keep track of how many houses they own). For overnight, the Treasury has levied a whopper of a tax, except instead of sending you a bill you have to pay from you checking account by April 15, they have just gone ahead and charged it to your credit card and left it to the next guy to work out payment terms.
Okay. Before the campaign gets really serious again, here is your chance to vote for Sarah Palin -- that is for the best impersonation.
And there are two really great impersonators too. You may already have seen Saturday Night Live's "A Nonpartisan Message from Sarah Palin & Hillary Clinton". In case you missed it, click on the pic for Tina Fey and Amy Poehler in their SNL opening skit:
But Tina's got competition! Here name is Lisa Vega (aka Lisa Donovan), who was once featured on MADtv, and she has done three Palin sketches already. The first had her corner Obama on a stairwell as he comes home, and she browbeats him till he turns into the "angry black man"; this may explain why the clip is no longer available. But her parental guidance skit called "Is McCain Palin's Bitch?" is already a YouTube classic, and showcases the other side of Sarah:
You can click on the photo. That's Dan Oster as John MCcain.
So here's your guilt-free chance to vote for Sarah Palin (impersonator, that is). Please cast your vote below on the comment section.
If it is true that the great majority of American voters can only be reached through sound bites. and then only by a limited number of such sound bites, well that's what we'll need to give them.
sound bite - noun, a brief, quotable remark, or excerpt from a speech, made as by a politician and suitable for use on TV or radio newscasts: often a dismissive term implying superficiality. YourDictionary.com Eistein utters the ultimate sound bite:
sound bite - noun, a brief, quotable remark, or excerpt from a speech, made as by a politician and suitable for use on TV or radio newscasts: often a dismissive term implying superficiality.
YourDictionary.com
Eistein utters the ultimate sound bite:
I'm sure you can come up with your own summary phrases to describe Barack Obama's plans for the country. Please add your ideas in the comment section below. But for starters, here are my seven. I hope you'll agree they are appropriately short, sufficiently limited in number and accurately descriptive.
Don't be surprised if you start seeing and hearing bites like these from Barack Obama in ads and the Presidential debates.
wizinit is the nom de guerre of a veteran diplomat and fan of the late columnist Art Buchwald who writes serious analysis and political satire. If you would like to be notified whenever wizinit posts a new article join Food Tasters For Obama.
So far unnoticed by the mainstream media obsessed with lipstick on pigs and pit bulls is the latest bit of John McCain hypocrisy.
McCain and Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) decided on September 9 to co-sponsor Senate Bill 1810: "A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to increase the provision of scientifically sound information and support services to patients receiving a positive test diagnosis for Down syndrome or other prenatally and postnatally diagnosed conditions."
That is the same bill that Republicans blocked in a procedural vote on strict party lines on the floor of the Senate on July 28, of this year. The bill, originally co-sponsored by Senators Sam Brownback (R-KS) and Edward Kennedy (D-MA), was part of a package of health care legislation that Republicans voting along strict party lines blocked from floor action. Despite the 52-40 vote for consideration, supporters fell short of the required 60 vote majority to move the package forward.
Photo: McCain's Vice Presidential running mate Sarah Palin gave birth to Trig Paxson Van Palin, a Down Syndrome baby, on April 18.
Inspired by his observation of the Chinese Government’s efficient management of the Olympics, George Bush has evidently returned to Washington full of exciting ideas he hopes will ensure John McCain’s victory in November. And there is some evidence suggesting that some of the Chinese tactics have already found their way into John McCain’s 2008 Presidential election campaign.
Last June, the St. Paul Police Department arrested a 50-year-old man peacefully handing out leaflets promoting a Sept. 1 march on the Republican National Convention. It is not clear if US law enforcement will be as clever as Chinese authorities, who prevented large-scale protests by arresting those who are naive enough to apply for a permit to demonstrate legally. But authorities expect to round up 800 demonstrators in Minneapolis, so even the most docile protester attempting to approach the Excel Center may be fair game for a round-up.
Like those intimidating Chinese drummers in the opening ceremonies who were instructed to smile, John McCain has been smiling a lot in his own public performances. But his handlers, worried about invidious comparison with Barack Obama, are not taking chances. Like the sweet little girl who was also in the opening ceremony, they will train McCain to lip-sync his acceptance speech while the words are spoken by one of his movie star supporters. But it is not yet clear however which of McCain’s prominent thespian endorsers' characters will provide the voice. So far, the three nominees in the category of Nominating Acceptance Speech are: Clint "Dirty Harry" Eastwood, Sylvester "Rocky" Stallone and Arnold "Terminator" Schwarzenegger.
But none of the Chinese measures has excited Republicans as much as the “passport solution”. The GOP is taking its cue from China’s women’s gymnastics team, which was able to demonstrate that its athletes met the International Olympic Committee’s 16-year old age requirement by presenting Chinese passports. So they are applying for a new passport that McCain can present as his government issued photo ID. It will address concerns of some voters who believe McCain is too old by showing that he is only 35. That will both meet the Constitution’s minimum age requirement and should reassure voters that he could easily serve two full terms as President. As an added bonus for those constitutional scholars who question if McCain meets the Consitution’s “natural-born” requirement because of his birth in Panama, the passport will list his place of birth (POB) as Panama City, Florida. Problem solved.
wizinit is the nom de guerre of a veteran diplomat and fan of the late columnist Art Buchwald who writes serious analysis and political satire. If you would like to be notified whenever wizinit posts a new article click on and join Food Tasters For Obama.
Thanks to all who signed up and participated in the Barack Birthday Bake Off. There are four Food Tasters for Obama logo t-shirt winners instead of three, because we had a tie in the "organizing ideas" category. The winners (three wonderful recipes are avaiable below the fold) are:
Best Recipe: Erica Rivera's Black and White Birthday Cake (an original recipe)
Best Photo: Hanneke Hoogstrate's Berry Spangled Baked Cheesecake and Banoffi Cheesecake on the Batavia (Jakarta Indonesia's colonial name, providing one more degree of separation from the candidate) ship's chest (posted on her Dutch website at http://www.blago.net/_baking_08/08_04_berry_tart.php)
Best Organizing Ideas:
--David Levy's (who prepared a Unity Pound Cake for 60 at an outdoor party of the Prince George's County MD office), and
--Michaele Camp (whose Sour Cream Pound Cake won the Bake Off hosted by Gena Bowser and Sharon Wilkerson at the Urban Tea Loft in Chandler AZ)
Congratulations to the winners.
Democratic US presidential contender Barack Obama in front of the Victory Column and waves to the audience in Berlin, Germany, 24 July 2008.
Speaking to a crowd of 200,000 in Berlin, Barack Obama issued a trans-Atlantic call for cooperation.
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., left, is welcomed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the chancellery in Berlin Thursday, July 24, 2008. In the background is the the Reichstag that houses the German parliament.
There may be no state in the country considered as “safe” for Barack Obama as the Green Mountain State. It is after all the home of former governor and current Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean. But I wonder what happened over the past two weeks to explain why 538’s state-by-state survey of electoral outcome probabilities slipped Obama’s chances of winning the Green Mountain State from 100% (a unique status it had shared with the District of Columbia) to 99% (with Rhode Island and Hawaii).
I doubt it is related to the size of Obama’s official campaign presence here, currently one full-time staffer embedded in the Vermont Democratic Party campaign office in Burlington. Attendance at recent Obama county organizing meetings in Chittenden and Addison was respectable considering it is mid-summer and the election is 3 months from now. After all, grass roots activists had no difficulty gathering required petition signatures, conducting canvasses, registering new voters, raising funds and mounting visibility long before the official campaign arrived in Vermont just 2 weeks before the March 4 primary. And that effort built a strong foundation for the general election.
No public opinion polls have been published in Vermont since February, but these would probably be a waste of money. Two polls conducted just weeks before the Democratic primary projected Obama beating McCain by margins of 34 and 21 percent. How reliable were those polls? The same polling organizations at the time showed Obama leading Clinton by 24 and 14 percent (Rasmussen 57-33 and Research 2000 53-39). The far less scientific AOL straw poll at the same time showed him with a 20-point lead (60-40), very close to the actual primary results (59.31% to 38.59%). So go figure.
Well, that’s exactly what fivethirtyeight.com has done. They have adjusted the February data to a current projection of 59.7% to 38% for Obama over McCain. Since volatility is not a Vermont voting trait, barring some major development, you can probably bank on 538’s prediction holding on November 4.
While most Vermonters are excited about bringing CHANGE to Washington DC, the same does not necessarily apply to their state capital, Montpelier. This is a very unique election year. Neither of Vermont’s highly popular Senators, Democrat Patrick Leahy nor Independent (democratic socialist) Bernie Sanders, is up for re-election. And Representative Peter Welch, finishing his first term as one of the country’s most effective freshman in Congress, will have no Republican opponent in November, though he will face an anti-war activist in the Democratic primary and a Progressive Party candidate in the general election. So, all attention is on the Governor’s race, with Republican Jim Douglas running for his fourth two-year term against Democratic House Speaker Gaye Symington, with Progressive Party candidate Anthony Pollina as her potential spoiler.
So far, Election 2008 looks to be a bifurcated event that will focus far more resources on the state race than on the national contest. Both Democrats and Republicans have already raised the specter of coattails effects in November. Democratic Party officials talk of Obama drawing enough new voters to the polls to help Symington overcome the State’s tradition of voting for candidates irrespective of party affiliation. Republicans cautiously whisper of a reverse coattail effect, with McCain benefiting from a loyal turnout to re-elect Douglas. These may be prime examples of wishful thinking. It is doubtful that “coattail” is going to become a causative verb in Vermont any time soon. Why? Because the ties that connect these local candidates vertically to their national tickets are nebulous when compared to the strong ties that bind them horizontally to other state party officials.
Top Vermont Democrats like Leahy and Welch certainly boarded the Obama bandwagon early in the primary race. But their party has failed to court Obama’s most active grass roots supporters who are engaged in politics for the first time.
Perhaps more importantly, while most Clinton supporters in Vermont will certainly vote for Obama, it is not clear what role her state campaign chair, former governor Madeleine Kunin, is going to play at the Denver Convention.
UPDATED: She is currntly a leading advocate for an Obama-Clinton "dream ticket", choosing for now to play the yenta. But there are forces within the Democratic Party, like PUMA and the Denver Group, ready to cause havoc at the convention who would be more than happy to seize on "Hillary for VP" as their battle cry, as well as highlighting the party's schism through a roll call vote for President. By late August, Kunin may have to choose between party unity and loyalty to Hillary and her personal cause of promoting women in politics. And that decision ironically could affect both her state party's prospects of electing another female governor as much as the national party's opportunity to elect the first biracial President.
On the Republican side, Governor Douglas knows he is better off distancing himself from his party’s standard bearer. Otherwise, he risks having to defend McCain’s erratic personality and unpopular positions before a skeptical electorate. It will be much easier to present his own narrative of a steady demeanor and record of cautious stewardship. In fact it is his Lieutenant Governor, Brian Dubie, with whom he forms Vermont’s sole surviving Republican “team”, where coattails may help if at all. But this November, it is probably going to be casual Tuesday. And that means “No Ties, No Tails”.
wizinit is the nom de guerre of a veteran diplomat and fan of the late columnist Art Buchwald who writes serious analysis and political satire. If you would like to be notified whenever wizinit posts a new article click on the logo to join Food Tasters For Obama.
Here are my favorite photos so far of Barack's trip.
Barack Obama surveys Baghdad with General David Petraeus
Barack Obama and Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai enjoyed a traditional lunch of mutton, chicken and rice washed down with a yogurt drink.
Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama greets U.S. troops at Camp Arifjan, the main U.S. military base in Kuwait. He stopped there Friday en route to Afghanistan.
Favorite Video - Kuwait - Obama Hoops with Troops
(Click on photo to link to video)
Sen. Barack Obama, left, with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, during a meeting in the West bank city of Ramallah, 23 Jul 2008
Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) meets Israel's President Shimon Peres (not pictured) in Jerusalem July 23, 2008.
Obama at Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial
Today I received the following email, presumably anticipating Obama’s August 4 birthday:
“Does anyone know, what is Senator Obama's favorite kind of cake? Please let us know. Thank you. David”
As a result of David’s inquiry and for the benefit of all those with similar questions, I’ve compiled most of the reliable information about Barack’s eating habits. It’s not easy sorting through all the phony facts on the internet sites where they ask: “What is Obama’s favorite food”. There are lots of pranksters on the loose. I did chuckle at the Republican who claimed Obama’s favorite is “waffle,” but there are a lot of racist jokers with puerile and predictable suggestions, like KFC, fried chicken and watermelon.
So here’s the scoop. According to the NY Times of May 27, his personal assistant during the campaign, Reggie Love, revealed:
Senator Obama “eats pretty much anything, from chicken wings and barbecue and ribs to grilled fish and steamed broccoli.” But when he is campaigning in a small town with limited options, a cheeseburger is always a good bet. (“Cheddar is the cheese of choice,” Mr. Love added.) He knows that “the boss,” as he calls Mr. Obama, likes MET-Rx chocolate roasted-peanut protein bars and bottles of a hard-to-find organic brew — Black Forest Berry Honest Tea. He keeps a supply of both on hand.
Here are other known likes: Planters Trail Mix: Nuts, Seeds & Raisins, Roasted almonds, Pistachios, Water, Dentyne Ice, Nicorette, Vegetables (especially broccoli and spinach), handmade milk chocolates from Fran’s Chocolates in Seattle.
The NY Times reported the candidate’s efforts to quit cigarette smoking included chewing Nicorette gum. One reported side effect of Nicorette is heartburn.
And dislikes: Mayonnaise, Salt and vinegar potato chips, asparagus (“if no other vegetables are available, he’ll eat it”), and Soft drinks.
In response David’s specific question though, here’s what Obama McCain Comparisons says (which appears to give you carte blanche in deciding what to bake for the big day):
“According to Obama’s daughters he doesn’t like sweets so much... he does like pumpkin pie.”
This same site as well as others claim that based on an interview on January 18 of this year Obama’s favorite restaurant is Italian Fiesta Pizzeria in Hyde Park, Chicago, IL. The website tried, but failed to identify Obama’s favorite toppings. This restaurant is known for its thin crust pizza and spreading toppings to the edge of the pie. His view on where he likes to eat appears to be one position Obama has not changed since he clinched the Democratic nomination.
Obama apparently also enjoys shrimp and grits, though it is not clear if that is a home-made or eat-out dish.
One thing is absolutely clear. Chili is Obama’s favorite food to cook and/or bring to a potluck. In fact, here are his own words and recipe:
“I’ve been using this chili recipe since college and would bring it to any potluck. I can’t reveal all the secrets, but if you make it right, it’s just got the right amount of bite, the right amount of oomph in it and it will clear your sinuses.” Ingredients: 1 large onion, chopped; 1 green pepper, chopped; Several cloves of garlic, chopped; 1 tablespoon olive oil; 1 pound ground turkey or beef; 1/4 teaspoon ground cumin; 1/4 teaspoon ground oregano; 1/4 teaspoon ground turmeric; 1/4 teaspoon ground basil; 1 tablespoon chili powder; 3 tablespoons red wine vinegar; Several tomatoes, depending on size, chopped; 1 can red kidney beans. Method: Sauté onions, green pepper and garlic in olive oil until soft. Add ground meat and brown. Combine spices together into a mixture then add to ground meat. Add red wine vinegar. Add tomatoes and let simmer, until tomatoes cook down. Add kidney beans and cook for a few more minutes. Serve over white or brown rice. Garnish with grated cheddar cheese, onions and sour cream.
“I’ve been using this chili recipe since college and would bring it to any potluck. I can’t reveal all the secrets, but if you make it right, it’s just got the right amount of bite, the right amount of oomph in it and it will clear your sinuses.”
Ingredients: 1 large onion, chopped; 1 green pepper, chopped; Several cloves of garlic, chopped; 1 tablespoon olive oil; 1 pound ground turkey or beef; 1/4 teaspoon ground cumin; 1/4 teaspoon ground oregano; 1/4 teaspoon ground turmeric; 1/4 teaspoon ground basil; 1 tablespoon chili powder; 3 tablespoons red wine vinegar; Several tomatoes, depending on size, chopped; 1 can red kidney beans.
Method:
Sauté onions, green pepper and garlic in olive oil until soft. Add ground meat and brown. Combine spices together into a mixture then add to ground meat. Add red wine vinegar. Add tomatoes and let simmer, until tomatoes cook down. Add kidney beans and cook for a few more minutes.
Serve over white or brown rice. Garnish with grated cheddar cheese, onions and sour cream.
There you have it. Of course Obama may develop a hearty appetite in the course of this campaign. So maybe after November 4, when asked what Obama likes to eat, you’ll just have to say: “McCain’s lunch!”
With exactly two weeks to go to August 4, participants in Barack’s Birthday Bake Off are franticly preparing for the big day. Most are happy just to celebrate while organizing for the campaign. But many are admittedly drawn by the chance to win an attractive t-shirt with the Food Tasters logo (see sample at http://www.onemillionstrong.us/showDiary.do?diaryId=1313); I know I’d be. So here is our best effort to answer your questions and lay out the contest rules:
1. You must be signed up for any one of the “Barack’s Birthday Bake Off” events hosted by “Mark Wiznitzer” on my.barackobama.com, such as the event at White House zip code “20500” at: http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/organizing/4g9y9#rsvp
2. All contestants, except employees of the Obama campaign, must be registered as a member of “Food Tasters for Obama” at my.barackobama.com no later than midnight August 4. Not yet a member? Sign up at http://my.barackobama.com/page/group/FoodTastersforObama.
3. One Food Tasters for Obama t-shirt will be awarded to the winner in each for the following three categories: a) best recipe, b) best birthday campaign organizing idea, and c) photo of the best decorated desert.
4. After you have complied with requirements 1 and 2 above, submit your entry via email to markwiznitzer@gmail.com. Entries must be received no later than 11:59PM EDT on August 5 (in European that’s Greenwich 04:59 on 060808). To be considered the subject line of the email submission must read: “BARACK BIRTHDAY BAKE OFF CONTEST”. Sorry, as good as it may taste, we won’t be able to personally sample your baked goods (unless you happen to be in the Champlain Valley on August 4, in which case, let us know).
5. Entries need not be your own original, recipe, idea or decoration, but then you must indicate the source of your inspiration. Winning recipes, campaign organizing ideas and decorations remain the “property” of their owner, but will be shared with the world by Food Tasters for Obama. By your entry you acknowledge your compliance with these conditions.
6. We are not responsible for any emails that are not receive on time, are blocked by spam or other internet security filters, attached files that cannot be opened or viewed, or any terrorist incident or acts of public disorder, floods, earthquake or other natural disasters that may interfere with our ability to recognize your brilliant effort and reward you with a t-shirt.
7. Selection of winners will be entirely subjective, but this competition is open to anyone who supports Barack Obama for President, including but not limited to employees of Price Waterhouse, the Obama campaign, its surrogates and volunteers, first-time voters, former Hillary backers, Obamicans, or any minors or non-US citizens who would vote for Obama if they could.
Good Luck!
Obama wipes his forehead at a Montana campaign event in May.
McCain's handlers think they were owned. Photo-analysis suggests that Barack Obama may have been play-acting when he pulled out a hanky and patted his forehead at a campaign appearance in Montana two months ago. And the two lost months may cost McCain the election if the candidate, who is known for his volcanic temper, has a Nixonian moment of perspiration during the Presidential debates this Fall.
It's all part of a game of hot potato that the two camps have been playing, trying to stay cool under the constant glare of media scrutiny. Until today McCain's people believed they were going to win because Obama had fallen for the Republican's challenge to visit Baghdad, where the average high this month is 115 degrees. But then the news reported: "No sweat."
The confirmation was contained in today's AP story about Obama's suspicously frequent workouts, in which photo-journalists were quoted as saying that:
"even when he shot hoops earlier this year with members of the University of North Carolina varsity men's basketball team, they didn't see Obama sweat."
The report has the McCain campaign in a panic, for what was suspected and feared is now confirmed: Obama is cool, literally as well as figuratively. It's not just that he made the cover of Rolling Stone, GQ and Vibe. They knew McCain didn't stand a chance going one-on-one against Obama for the Metromale vote. That was a given. But it's the image of McCain as a sweaty old guy who turns off Hillary Clinton's women voters they were counting on to win that has them worried.
Sources who did not want to be identified because they are not authorized to discuss the sensitive subject confirm that a hush-hush project code-named "Operation Bikram" has been launched from an inconspicuous office at Republican National Committee headquarters. GOP operatives are simultaneously scouring the aisles of drug stores nationwide to find the most effective anti-perspirant and reviewing comparison tests of moisture wicking underwear. Separately a top-secret team of technicians, specialists in heating and cooling, is ready to move in and take over any debate venue that registers above 65 degrees.
These precautions are all intended to manage McCain's known tendency to get hot under the collar at the slightest provocation. And when really provoked McCain is known to breathe fire and sweat bullets. "It's hard to get John to cool off after one of these incidents," says an old family friend. "But that's why he has been so happy with Cindy, becuase he knows that at the end of the day he'll go home to an ice-cold Bud."
Obama Supporters at Paris' Pont des Arts
Primary voters in early states were mightily surprised when they learned the man on the phone named "Skipp," whose genial voice urged their support for Barack Obama was calling from... Japan! Retired as president of Boeing Japan, Skipp Orr is one of many Obama supporters abroad who are doing what they can. In Skipp's case that also included fundraising and speaking to expatriates and students near his second home in Toulouse, France.
Like their counterparts at home, these supporters have formed grassroots groups and networks to help elect Obama. They are highly motivated, having witnessed and experienced first-hand the decline abroad of respect for America under the Bush Administration. So they take to the tasks of campaigning -- making calls, fundraising, writing to local publications, voting as Democrats Abroad, and requesting absentee ballots for November -- with tremendous fervor. And they have coordinated one of the most novel approaches to "visibility" through the Bridges for Obama project.
London's Millenium Footbridge
To date, Obama supporters -- American and foreign -- have conducted their visibility in over 35 countries, on every continent. Meredith Wheeler in France describes the effort:
"The project is gathering photographs and videos of Obama supporters around the world, posing at, on or under famous or scenic bridges, displaying Obama banners--the bridge being an ideal symbol for the Obama candidacy. Bridges unite two banks, spans chasms, gaps and troubled water, brings together opposing sides."
Lebanon's Sowfar Bridge - Yes We Span!
A video montage of the project may be presented at the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August. But in the meantime, you can view a slideshow of the Yes We Span groups doing their thing here. A full list of the countries and bridges (several have multiple locations) is provided below.
Vienna - Obama supporters on the Kennedy Bridge
Which brings me to another related bridge matter. New York State has voted to rededicate and rename the Triborough Bridge connecting New York City's Manhattan, Queens and Bronx boroughs. Culminating a year of events honoring his life and commemorating the 40th anniversary of his tragic death, it will officially become The Robert F. Kennedy Bridge in November. Now is a good time to learn more about or contribute to the Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Center for Human Rights.
Senators Frank Moss (D-Utah) and Robert F. Kennedy (D-New York) with Art Buchwald (center) at Glen Canyon Dam in 1967.
