The Postcard Campaign all started with TaLisa Sheppard and TaKeysha Cheney from Ohio. They wanted to reach out to Women voters in Pennsylvania during the primaries and named their group Women Pass It On.
This initiative was birthed out of a deep desire to counter the skewed perception from the media that only African Americans and young educated Caucasian men support Barack Obama. They wanted to offer women (who are deciding this election) and undecided voters a personal message from Americans around the world in hopes that they would realize that the issues we face are not based on gender. Poverty, sickness, and environmental crisis befall all of us, regardless of our sex. Like Barack and Michelle, they believe that we are our brother’s keeper... that we are our sister’s keeper... and that we rise and fall together.
After a regretful loss in the Ohio Primary they put together this grassroots initiative to work in collaboration with the local GOTV (Get Out the Vote) efforts in Pennsylvania. They received great support from staffers such as David Henry and Jeremy Bird who graciously supplied voter lists for this project with ease. It was a pleasure to know that official members of the campaign see the value in grassroots initiatives.
Realizing supporters wanted to continue participating they decided to follow it through for the General election. That’s how it all began.
I became involved when one of mybo friends, Cheryl, happened to be on the blogs posting information about this campaign during the primaries. I said, “That is something I can do since I’m afraid to make phone calls.” I contacted Talisa and started running with it.
The participation was unbelievable. People from other countries and Americans abroad wanted to help and this was a perfect way to do that. TaLisa was very surprised and thrilled with all the response. After the DNC convention Democratic organizations and HQ’s from other states were e-mailing me about the Postcard Campaign. Thanks to all of the supporters who joined my previous events and spreading the word there were more participants than expected.
During the final months I wanted to recognize all the participants and their stories so I decided to create a slide show. Mybo friend, Carla, happen to send me some bottle cap necklaces of Barack. SURPRISE! I decided to give them out to the individual who sent the most postcards (reported it to me) and the person (s) who sent the most out from having Postcard Parties. You will see who won in the slide show. Then I decided it would be best in a video so I contacted Dan aka Desert Dove Dan who had done a great job creating videos. Once he has completed the video I will post it here.
Goal: 200 supporters then 500 which we surpassed with 856 + 30 (didn't join) = 886
10,000 Postcards sent from this group which we surpassed with 32,399
I hope you enjoy the slideshows:
Part 1 http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/Postcards%20For%20Votes%20Part%201/?action=view¤t=693afd5c.pbw
Part 2http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/Postcards%20For%20Votes%20Part%202/?action=view¤t=a3cf9559.pbw
Part 3http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/Postcards%20for%20Votes%20Part%203/?action=view¤t=498f1497.pbw
Part 4http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/Postcards%20For%20Votes%20Part%204/?action=view¤t=8975457b.pbw&t=1231298615
Part 5http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/Postcards%20For%20Votes%20Part%205/?action=view¤t=e0e4ca99.pbw
Part 6http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/Postcards%20For%20Votes%20Part%206/?action=view¤t=9abad34a.pbw
Part 7http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/Postcards%20For%20Votes%20Part%207/?action=view¤t=49b8cfb1.pbw
Part 8http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/Postcards%20For%20Votes%20Part%208/?action=view¤t=c41c5073.pbw
THANK YOU ALL FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND A WIN!
On Saturday, February, 7, 2009 I attended a house meeting in my area. I really wasn’t sure what to expect but I knew I just had to be there.
I happened to finally meet one of my participants in the Postcard Campaign and some others who I have met through the campaign as well. Marta Evry, of We Are the Change, hosted this event and there were twenty attendees. She discussed an overview of the meeting and then we watched the video of President Obama speaking directly to Americans about the need for immediate action on the economy. In the video he mentions that if they fail to pass this properly our economy will fall one trillion dollars short of what it’s capable of producing this year. He also mentioned a website www.recovery.gov which you can view after the Plan has passed to see how and where your tax dollars are spent. Once the video ended someone yelled, “That’s our President!” and we cheered.
Then we watched a video of President Obama’s speech from Williamsburg. Go President Obama! This video was a big hit. Here it is: http://www.veniceforchange.com/2009/02/obama-opens-can-of-whup-ass-news-at.html
We reviewed the information distributed to us about Moody ARRP evaluation of the recovery plan. Marta and Dave created a cliff note version of the original. The report was drafted by Mark Zandi, Chief Economist for Moody’s and former economic campaign adviser for John McCain. You can view the original here:http://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/Economic_Stimulus_House_Plan_012109.pdf
What can we do now?
Phone banking to Nevada (300 calls made, 35 contacts made). We asked former volunteers to call their Senators in Nevada and ask them to support restoring the House version of the stimulus package.
Share what we had learned today with all our social and family networks, and have them do the same.
Once the Senate votes on the bill and it goes to committee, call their Senators (in my case Boxer and Feinstein) and their House of Representatives member (in my case Jane Harman) and urge them to do everything possible to restore the funding to the States and to education that was removed in the Senate compromise version.
Senate contact information: http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
House of Representatives contact information:http://www.house.gov/
Call the White House and urge them to allow the committee to do its work and don't inadvertently pressure the committee with an artificial deadline that would force them to make unnecessary compromises. Urge them to give the grassroots the time and resources. White House contact information: http://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/
OTHER INFORMATION:
USA TODAY CHART. It breaks down how many jobs would be created or saved, how much in taxes ordinary citizens would save, and more state by state.http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2009-02-03-stimulus_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
Here’s a state by state breakdown in alphabetical order:http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/White_House_Releases_Additional_State1.pdf
I received this in an e-mail and thought it should be shared with all my friends here in Obamaland. If anyone is feeling blue this holiday season, just read this card. We all received our present early this year. LOL
What a present this is not only for us but our country and the world.
Gotta love it!
HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY!
WOW, what an exciting day it is! After all this time it is finally here.
Today is the day we finally get to cast our vote for Barack Obama as President of the United States and Joe Biden as Vice President. I can't wait for the results tonight.
My husband and I decided to go vote in the morning so I told my boss I may be late today. Our polling place is at a lifeguard station on the beach. Only in America would you be able to vote on the beach. How cool is that?
So we walked to the polling place which is three minutes. We usually go in the morning as it's not that busy but this time there was a long line. Lucky for us we had to go in the shorter line of the two. In front of me was a woman who is pregnant and is due in 7 weeks. They gave her a chair so she wouldn't have to stand long then they decided to put her in front of the line to vote.
It was actually fun to wait in line as we were all talking about how elite the line is and socialistic too. (wink, wink) You betcha! How if it wasn't for Sarah Palin these lines would be shorter. :-)
There were professional Photographers taking pictures of the lines. I took my camera and wasn't sure if I could take pictures or not but snuck some in as you will see below. We only had to wait in line for 25 minutes and then it was our turn. I was so nervous to mark the wrong dot that I kept starring at it to make sure it was correct. Then I took a picture of MY VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND JOE BIDEN. In California we had many props to vote on so I had my sample ballot filled out which helped me remember what I wanted to vote for. Completed the ballot and received my "I VOTED" sticker which I put on right away.
WHAT A FEELING!
I choose a scene that is appropriate for this event. Here's the slide show but there's not many pictures:
http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/November%204th%20Election%202008/?action=view¤t=da20f8c8.pbw
Barack is coming to Las Vegas, NV for a rally! I had to go.
Then I received an e-mail from my friend Suzie. She asked if I wanted VIP tickets and stated she might be able to get them from her Field organizer. She has been hosting the GOTV in her home for over a week now. What do you think I did then? :-D
I picked up my cell phone and called her. While were talking her field organizer, Cameron, came in. You know the old saying, “Ask and you shall receive” well he handed her the tickets. I started yelling, “THANK YOU, THANK YOU!”
I called my husband and told him to pack his bags because we’re going to Las Vegas. We started discussing it and decided to leave in the morning. Left at 6:00 AM and arrived to Suzie’s home around 10:30 AM. They were gathering for a GOTV meeting. We ate breakfast and went to the rally.
There were so many people selling T-shirts at every corner. I couldn’t believe all the different ones. I had my items with me but decided not to as I wanted to make sure we got in OK. We had to go through a metal detector. It was very hot. We sat in the bleachers near the stage and high school band. I called my mother and sister and they couldn’t believe we drove there to see him.
When Barack’s caravan came we all started cheering. You should have seen it rows of police motor cycles, two buses for the media, and about 4 SUV’s. First the reverend came out and we prayed. Then we said the Pledge of Allegiance. There was a choir of little girls who sang the National Anthem. They passed out flags and signs but we weren’t able to grab one. I really wanted an Obama/Biden sign for my collection. Cameron, the Field Organizer, came out with two other people and did three examples of GOTV. The last one was the funniest as the voter was voting for Barack and was so excited to see them. THEN IT WAS THE MOMENT WE ALL WERE WAITING FOR. BARACK CAME UP THE STAIRS ONTO THE STAGE WITH THAT BEAUTIFUL SMILE OF HIS WAVING TO ALL OF US. I’m crying now just thinking about it and had tears then too. He stated that Barry Manilow was there. Some of my pictures had to be deleted as people were raising their signs and blocked the view.
After he spoke he did his usual handshaking and had to leave. While walking out I saw this little girl holding a sign while her mother was fixing her hair. I asked the mother if I could take a picture of her with the sign and she agreed. Brooklyn is her name and she was so funny. I told her to hold the sign in front so I could take a picture and she kept raising it like she was still in the rally. I guess it drew attention to her as many came around to take a picture as she got shy and ran behind her mom. It took me a while but I finally got a picture of her. We then went back to Suzie’s for dinner and hit the road around 8:00 PM. One more thing, across the street from Suzie's was a McCain sign. That must have bothered them seeing all those cars with Obama bumper stickers on them.
Here’s the slide show I created to share with all of you:
http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/LV%20Early%20Vote%20Rally/?action=view¤t=a642554a.pbw
Planning the party was easy but finding a place large enough for a Postcard Party was difficult. It took me weeks before I found this park and decided to go for it. The weekend that was available happen to be a weekend that the Obama Campaign was requesting Californians go to Nevada for one last big push in Voter Registration. Can’t blame anyone for going as I probably would have went myself.
My volunteers helped set up the park. There were red, white and blue star balloons, and table covers, pens in cups for the supporters to use, and information at the sign in table.
When supporters arrived we started talking about Sarah Palin and the 1st Debate between Obama and McCain. Many people have never participated in the postcard event before so I explained what to do and handed out instructions. Everyone was very friendly and enjoyed the fresh air while doing postcards.
There were also some fundraising Obama products, unique Obama products made by supporters, bottled water, cookies, and lollipops for the children. We raised $50.00 for the campaign.
Sixty-five postcards were written and mailed out. Mike donated stamps and Sharman donated postcards so another 52 were mailed after. A grand total of 117. Some decided they want to continue with this and I gave them my flyer for the general event to join.
Here is the slide show of the party:
Part 1 of 2
http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/LA%20Postcard%20Party%20Part%201/?albumview=slideshow
Part 2 of 2
http://s322.photobucket.com/albums/nn415/lbheart/LA%20Postcard%20Party%20Part%202/?albumview=slideshow
Suzie and Fred McKay were kind enough to open their home to me and hold their first Postcard Party. Suzie and I met on the blogs while I was in LV on business. I live in California and was going to Las Vegas with my husband for our yearly vacation. As many of you know, you just can’t get away from this campaign. :- D
Each person received printed instructions and then I started explaining the story of who started Postcards for Votes and where we are today. It was like a show and tell set up. I had my postcards and instructions ready to explain what to do and how the process worked. Once I was done it was time to write those postcards. Fred has Multiple Sclerosis (MS for short) so he typed out his and some of us cut them out so I could use a glue stick to put them on his postcards. Suzie read his message and we were all touched. Here’s her blog to check out what he wrote:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/suziemckay/gG53Lf
My husband put together a CD of songs about America that I gave him. We had that playing in the background. There were also some fundraising Obama products, unique Obama products made by supporters, refreshments, and desserts. We raised $62.00 for the campaign which will be split between Suzie’s and my fundraising page. Here’s the links for both of our pages if you would like to donate:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/LBHeart
Here’s Suzie’s FR Page:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/SuzieM
All the supporters there had never done this before and plan to continue with this event. Forty one postcards were sent out. They also were going to get others involved. Suzie suggested I stop by the campaign office which just opened two days before. I went over there and made contact with some supporters who were interested in participating. Handed out the flyer I made for anyone to join.
Here is a slideshow of the party:
This information is very important and we all need to share it.I received an e-mail stating not to wear any Obama gear at the polls as you will be turned away. I decided to check into this further and in some states there are regulations but you CAN NOT BE TURNED AWAY. Here’s the e-mail spreading around:
E-MAIL BEING SENT:
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE ADVISE EVERYONE YOU KNOW THAT THEYA BSOLUTELY CAN NOT GO TO THE POLLS WEARING ANY OBAMA SHIRTS, PINS, OR HATS, IT IS AGAINST THE LAW AND WILL BE GROUNDS TO HAVE THE POLLING OFFICIALS TO TURN YOU AWAY.THAT IS CONSIDERED CAMPAIGNING AND NO ONE CAN CAMPAIGN WITHINAMOUNT OF 100 FEET TO THE POLLS. THEY ARE BANKING ON US BEING EXCITED AND NOT BE AWARE OF THIS LONG STANDING LAW THAT YOU CAN BET WILL BE ENFORCED THIS YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!THEY ARE BANKING THAT IF YOU ARE TURNED AWAY YOU WILL NOT GO HOMEAND CHANGE YOUR CLOTHES. PLEASE JUST DON'T WEAR OBAMA GEAR OFANY SORTS TO THE POLLS!!PLEASE SHARE THIS INFORMATION, OH AND FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WERE ALREADY AWARE THIS WAS NOT MEANT TO INSULT YOUR INTELLIGENCE.
Here's what I have found:
Each state has different regulations and in some states you are not allowed to wear campaign gear so please check your state's regulations (See below) by contacting your Secretary of State. You can not be turned away but may be asked to take the button/sticker/hat off or put a jacket on to cover the T-shirt. I live in California and wore my Obama for President pin during the primaries and nothing was said to me. A voter wearing a t-shirt saying "Vote for X" that shouts "vote for X" or places his T-shirt in the sightline of voters asking support for "X" is obviously electioneering and will be asked to refrain from the conduct at once, and if they continue will be removed.If you are not sure of the regulations, then I suggest not wearing any campaign gear or at least be prepared to remove it if asked. We can not afford to lose this race. Now the banking crisis is happening and we need Obama/Biden in the White House.
2006- Ten States have regulations explicityly prohibiting the wearing of buttons to the polls - Delaware, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey, New York South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Vermont. Since the date is 2006 I would suggest you check into it further.
http://law.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4685&context=expresso
Here’s some resources to check it out:
http://fightthesmears.com/articles/19/tshirtrumor
snopes.com: Passive Electioneering
GOP seeks ban on political clothing at polling placesBy Mario F. Cattabiani INQUIRER STAFF WRITER
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaking/20080918_GOP_seeks_ban_on_political_clothing_at_polling_places.html?text=reg&c=y
Daniel W. Reilly 7 minutes ago
DENVER — John McCain’s Democratic colleagues in the Senate are zeroing in on his oft-discussed temper, questioning whether the presumptive Republican presidential nominee is too volatile to be commander in chief.
“He has a huge anger problem,” Boxer said. “And he never hid that. ... I have seen it happen on the Senate floor many, many times. … He has exploded at me a couple times.”
Boxer said McCain has always apologized after the dust-ups. Nonetheless, she insinuated that McCain’s temperament makes him unfit for the White House.
“It’s all well and good to apologize,” Boxer added, “but if you are in charge of that black box, I worry about that.”
Durbin noted McCain’s temper is “well documented,” saying that he had been on the receiving end of it for what he considered “minor things.”
“I was in a confrontation with him … and he was quick to explode,” said Durbin. “It simmered for a long time.”
Republicans have accused Democrats of inventing the temper line of attack to knock the Arizona senator. But Durbin called it “an important issue.”
Boxer pointed out that many of McCain’s GOP colleagues have also spoken out about his volatility, highlighting an incident told to the Biloxi Sun Herald by Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.).
Cochran told the newspaper that he watched McCain get involved in a physical confrontation with a Nicaraguan government official during a 1987 trip there. According to Cochran, McCain grabbed the official by the shirt collar and “snatched him up like he was throwing him up out of the chair.”
McCain has said the account was “simply not true.” A campaign spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment on the latest assertions by Boxer and Durbin.
Jonathan Senft contributed to this report.
Barack Obama is inspiring people to get involved with politics. To talk to neighbors. And now, even to make great art.
MoveOn members entered over 1,200 great paintings, drawings, photographs, sculptures, and installations in our Manifest Hope contest in partnership with artist Shepard Fairey.
Check out the finalists in our Obama art contest—and the five winners that are being displayed in Denver right now. They're amazing.
http://pol.moveon.org/mh/gallery/?id=13570-3230212-qkb.rkx&t=3
If you like, you can make a bid to buy one on eBay—the artists have pledged to donate the proceeds to progressive causes and electing Obama. And be sure to share this with your friends.
Here are a few of the featured works:
"Obama/Hope '08" by Shel Starkman of Los Angeles, CA
"Stars and Stripes" by Phil Fung of Miami, FL
"Obama Entrances The Crowd" by Ocean Clark of Hoboken, NJ
The winners were chosen by judges like Shepard Fairey, Guggenheim contemporary art curator Nancy Spector, Denver Museum of Contemporary Art curator Cydney Payton, and recording artists Moby, DJ Spooky, and Thurston Moore of Sonic Youth.
Get inspired. See the rest:
http://pol.moveon.org/mh/gallery/?id=13570-3230212-qkb.rkx&t=7
–Peter, Karin, Laura, Ilyse and the rest of the team
P.S. For more Obama-inspired art, check out this powerful new music video featuring Whoopi Goldberg, Joan Baez, Dave Stewart, Forest Whitaker, Macy Gray, Herbie Hancock, Joss Stone, Cyndi Lauper, and many other great artists—it's called "American Prayer":
http://www.myamericanprayer.com/
Want to support our work? We're entirely funded by our 3.2 million members—no corporate contributions, no big checks from CEOs. And our tiny staff ensures that small contributions go a long way. Chip in here.
Welcome aboard the O-Train. Hope you enjoy the ride as it's just starting for you. We've had some bumpy rides during the Primaries but I think it will smooth out with you on board. Watched the rally today and feel confident Barack picked the right person for the job. I loved your comments about the kitchen table. Just so you know, you have already helped people make their decision as we had some bloggers online today who were not sure about voting for Barack but because you are the one Barack chose for his VP that helped close the deal. Get use to many names for you like O biden, BoJo, or Moe Joe which are already spreading online. Also, there may be songs about you and rhymes. We are already having fun online. You should check us out.
Did you know that today there is a Obama cart going across the country starting in Divide Montana and ending in Unity New Hampshire? It’s going to be stored in Washington, DC for the inauguration in January 2009. Here’s a link for you to check it
http://my.barackobama.com/page/group/FromDividetoUnityforObama
Bill will blog when he stops somewhere about the experience. This is just one unique way supporters are working together for a grassroots campaign.
Good luck and go get them!
Yes We Can! And We Can’t Wait!
Lynn Branco
Venice, CA
Making Change Happen
By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer 9 minutes ago
EMPORIA, Va - Barack Obama says he's decided on a running mate, but he won't say who. "I've made the selection, that's all you're gonna get," Obama said told reporters while campaigning in Virginia Thursday. Obama didn't say whether he's informed his pick yet.
Obama is planning to announce his choice in a text message to supporters sometime before Saturday afternoon, when he's scheduled to appear with his pick in Illinois.
Asked by an Associated Press reporter when the text would be sent, Obama just grinned and said, "Wouldn't you like to know?"
This link shows him explaining what he's looking for in a VP:
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=9371732&ch=4226716&src=news
I went to see a customer of ours today and he gave me this fax he received today. Thought I’d share it with you. I blocked out the name of our customer. Let me know your thoughts.
I received this e-mail and wanted to share it with everyone who is interested. Many of our supporters are very talented and hopefully one of you will win. GOOD LUCK!
Dear MoveOn member,
The "Yes We Can" video by will.i.am. The 1000+ positive Obama ads created by MoveOn members. The iconic Obama "HOPE" poster created by artist Shepard Fairey.
Barack Obama's historic candidacy has sparked an unprecedented artistic outpouring. Now, in partnership with Shepard Fairey and his Obey Giant collective, we're offering a new way for artists—anyone with a pen and paper qualifies—to share their talents and help elect Barack Obama at the same time.
It's called Manifest Hope, and it's a new Obama art contest for 2D and 3D art, from painting to photography to sculpture. The winners will be shown at the Manifest Hope Gallery online and in Denver during the Democratic convention alongside works from dozens of established and influential artists.
If you think you might want to enter, or want updates on the contest, please let us know here:
http://pol.moveon.org/mh/signup/?id=13385-3230212-xn5zK7x&t=3
If not, can you pass this on to friends of yours who might be interested?
Anyone can enter. You don't have to be Picasso, you just need to be inspired by Barack Obama and willing to donate your creativity and time to the cause.
But you need to get started soon. The final submissions deadline is August 18th at 11:59 a.m. ET. That's not much time to conceive and create a piece of art, so get started today.
All submissions will be judged by a distinguished panel of judges—artists from Obey Giant, contemporary art curators, and multi-talented musicians. Finalists will be asked to auction off their pieces, and donate the proceeds to progressive organizations.
Denver will be buzzing during the convention, but this gallery is going to be one of the coolest places to visit there. Plus, the gallery's going to have an amazing party with live performances by Death Cab For Cutie, Moby, and Clap Your Hands Say Yeah.
We're not going to send any more emails to the full MoveOn list before the submission deadline. So if there's any chance you might be interested, you have to sign up for contest updates now:
http://pol.moveon.org/mh/signup/?id=13385-3230212-xn5zK7x&t=4
Thanks for all you do.
P.S. It's okay to enter a piece of art you've already created, as long as you're willing to offer it up for auction if it becomes a finalist. If you're ready to enter right now, you can upload your entry here:
http://pol.moveon.org/mh/enter/?id=13385-3230212-xn5zK7x&t=5
Reuters
WASHINGTON (Aug. 1) - It really is the economy, stupid! Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a victory for Barack Obama in November. Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4, based on current gloomy economic estimates. Any further darkening in the economic outlook -- many analysts think things will get worse between now and November -- would reinforce that election outcome. "The economy is certainly not going to be a positive for the Republicans," said Ray Fair, an economics professor at Yale university who built the earliest of the models in 1978. His model, which assumed tepid U.S. economic growth of 1.5 percent and a 3 percent rate of inflation, predicted the Republican candidate John McCain's share of the vote would be 47.8 percent, handing Obama 52.2 percent. "It is a decent margin but it is not a landslide," said Fair, who ran the numbers in April. "It would have been much larger if there had been a recession in 2008." U.S. economic activity doubled in the second quarter to a 1.9 percent annualized pace. But previous data was revised lower to show output contracted 0.2 percent in the final three months of last year, the weakest performance since 2001, and expanded only slightly at the start of 2008. "It's the economy, stupid!" was a phrase extensively used during Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against George H.W. Bush to remind voters that a recession occurred during Bush's administration. Fair's model, and a version built by St. Louis-based forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, blend political factors with economics to scientifically nail down the view that voters care first and foremost about their own wallets. Indeed, opinion polls consistently find that the economy is the most important issue for U.S. voters.
Headwinds
Macroeconomic Advisers' model incorporates whether the candidate is from the incumbent party, approval ratings and the length of time the incumbent party has held the White House to capture the extent voters may have tired of them. Adding in its own estimates for U.S. economic growth, the unemployment rate and the change in energy prices, it finds that McCain will get just 45 percent of the vote. "This model has correctly predicted the winning party 12 out of 14 times," Macroeconomic Advisers said. "The weak current state of the economy, and the sharp rise in energy prices pose a significant headwind to the McCain campaign, if voters weigh these factors similarly to how they have in the past," they said in a note to clients. The third work is a "Bread and Peace" model devised by Douglas Hibbs, a retired economics professor from the University of Goteborg in Sweden, who remains a senior fellow at the Center for Public Sector Research there. He finds that U.S. presidential elections are well-predicted by just two fundamental forces: the weighted average per capita growth of real disposable income and the number of U.S. military deaths in foreign combat. "Average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75 percent at Election Day. Moreover, cumulative U.S. military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more," he said in a June update of his model. "Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2 percent." (Editing by Eric Walsh)Copyright 2008, Reuters2008-08-01 11:34:54
Who do you think will win in November?
John McCain
50%
Barack Obama
Total Votes: 362,245 Note on Poll Results
Which of these is the most important issue to you?
Economy
57%
National security
19%
Energy
10%
Health care
6%
Iraq
5%
Education
2%
Afghanistan
1%
Total Votes: 229,314 Note on Poll Results
Which of these is the least important issue to you?
25%
22%
14%
8%
3%
By Sandra Sobieraj Westfall
Originally posted Wednesday July 30, 2008 09:00 AM EDT
Barack and Michelle Obama Photo by: Emmanuel Dunand / AFP / Getty
Ask Michelle Obama whether she offers her two cents on her husband's presidential campaign policies and she sounds a bit like Saturday Night Live self-esteem coach Stuart Smalley. "I guess I could," she says. "I'm smart enough, I'm trained enough." But the wife of the Democratic presidential nominee is also realistic enough. "I can't do everything," she told PEOPLE recently. "I am not going to be the policy expert on every opinion and position that Barack has because I don't have the time to do it, quite frankly." As part of PEOPLE's recent cover story on Sen. Barack Obama's family life, the candidate's wife, Michelle, 44, sat down in Pontiac, Mich., to talk about being a mother in the midst of a presidential bid, her role in her husband's campaign – and the importance of "date night."When you think about the future for your children (Malia, 10, and Sasha, 7), what do you worry about?Michelle: There are the small worries, micro-worries, about whether we're doing all we can to let them be fully themselves, trying to make sure they have the space to be who they are and that they feel loved and supported. Then, there's the macro worry about, 'Okay, if we do our jobs and they turn out well as individuals, what kind of world are they going to be in?' Did you ever think you'd be in this place?Michelle: Never. Not until last year when Barack announced he was running. It feels sometimes like you're on a runaway locomotive. My survival tool is trying to create calm in the storm, because if I'm calm and my girls' lives have some order to it, that locomotion is running and it's moving, but they won't feel the bumps. So part of my composure is a protective mechanism for my girls because if I'm out of control, freakin' out about everything, that's the energy they would feed off of. Do you ever have a "pinch me" feeling about all of this?Michelle: Oh, yeah. I mean, we're still Michelle and Barack, so meeting Bill Cosby, it's like (gasp!), 'We LOVE you, Bill Cosby! What do you mean you're honored to meet me? You've got to be nuts. You're Bill Cosby! C'mon, now.'
Michelle Obama with daughters Malia, 10, and Sasha, 7 Photo by: David Banks / Getty
A friend of yours said you are purposely not engaged in policy because, as an attorney, you so over-prepare that if you can't master something you won't dive in at all. Is that true?Michelle: On some level I view myself – as do many women in my position – as 120-percenters, meaning we feel good about what we're doing when we're doing it at 120 percent. So, I could be very competent putting 70 percent in, but I don't feel good about it. I feel like, if I'm going to master it, I'm going to master it. Where I've had to come – not just in this campaign, but in my life of having so much that I'm doing, my career, the role of mom and exercise and all these other things that I have come to believe are just as important – is I've had to sort of let go of that 120-percent thing and say, I can't do everything. I am not going to realistically be the policy expert on every opinion and position that Barack has because I don't have the time to do it, quite frankly. And I have to be okay with that. I'm not sure people will buy that. They see you as so strong and smart and assertive, that it's natural to assume that you're weighing in on policy.Michelle: That is the internal struggle that I, and a lot of women, have. You listen to the outside, which says you have an obligation – because you're smart and well-educated – to do this. And it's like, 'Yeah, but I also have these kids.' And if Barack is fully into the policy – and we want the President of the United States to be completely the master of that universe – then I'm going to take the kids to camp. Do you even know who's on the VP list?Michelle: Uh ... (laughs) Are you plugged in that way?Michelle: I know what comes from the, 'So, what's going on?' conversations I have with Barack. Do you read the stuff about you?Michelle: It depends on where I am emotionally and what it is. Most of the time I don't because I just don't have time. [Also], reading your stuff takes you too high and it takes you too low. So for me, I'd rather stay more balanced. Another friend of yours told me about you and Barack slipping away for date nights on the campaign trail.Michelle: We were in this stadium and the staffers were like, 'You guys are going to have a date night.' They had set up a little room in the stadium with tablecloths and candles, and people came in and served, but we had, like, 10 minutes to eat. That was just squeezing it in, but it was fun, it was cute. You don't try to have a romantic [time] at the stadium. Our romantic [time] is almost every Saturday night or Friday night, if he's home. We spend the day with the girls doing girls' stuff and that's a family. Then we have date night, and the girls like it. As parents, you realize they do notice this stuff and it matters. You're worried about taking time away from the kids to be with each other when, in their minds, that's a good thing. It's like, 'Yeah, Mommy and Daddy, go! Go have dinner; it's so cute!' and that makes me feel like, 'Okay, I don't feel as bad that, after spending a day together, then we went and had a nice dinner while you had hamburgers with Grandma.'
The Democratic Party is making history by allowing us/Americans to set the agenda for the Democratic Platform at the convention in August. NO other major political party has done this before.
Since the “Unite for Change” meeting we now have a group called Venice for Obama. There are 4 people (Marta, Mary, Marc, and Suzanne) who coordinated this group.
Venice for Obama and Drinking Liberally got together and coordinated a “Listening to America” meeting at a bar. I wasn’t to sure about it but all and all it worked out very well. There were some Obama supporters, WLA Democrats, Drinking Liberally, and others were there for their first time getting involved.
We had a table with sign in sheets, a list of 11 topics to discuss, Drinking Liberally helps you get smart list of blogs and sites, 2004 DNC Platform, and 2008 California Platform. I did take the list of topics and DL blogs and sites.
Marc Saltzberg explained what the Party Platform is and that each statement is called a plank. The drafting committee looks at it and reviews on August 1st.
Then there was a long list of topics which they decided to take the top 4 and work on those. Each topic had its own paper which they taped to a section of the wall. The 4 topics were Global Warming and Energy Independence, Fixing our Broken Healthcare System, Exiting Iraq while dealing with Afghanistan and Iran, and Moving our Economy forward while protecting borrowers and addressing the credit crisis.
We were then able to choose a topic and form a group at that wall. We discussed and wrote down the issues, solutions, etc of that particular topic on the paper. If you felt you wanted to give your input on another subject all you did was walk on over to that wall. It was actually a great idea to do that because we all wanted to discuss more than one issue and had the chance to.
They also added a separate paper taped to the wall incase you wanted to discuss a different subject. Media Reform and Education were written on that sheet.
It was 3 hours long but I only stayed for 2 hours. I forgot my camera so there are no pictures as no one else had a camera.
One thing I will say is that I was the only person with anything Obama on (my pin). From speaking to others I realize there is still a lot of work to be done. We must keep informing people about our candidate. I am still amazed how the media sticks in peoples heads.
If you want to know more about Drinking Liberally, check it out:
http://livingliberally.org/drinking/
Hillary Clinton
An Outrageous Attempt by the Bush Administration to Undermine Women's Rights
Posted July 21, 2008 | 12:44 PM (EST)
These rules pose a serious threat to providers and uninsured and low-income Americans seeking care. They could prevent providers of federally-funded family planning services, like Medicaid and Title X, from guaranteeing their patients access to the full range of comprehensive family planning services. They'll also build significant barriers to counseling, education, contraception and preventive health services for those who need it most: low-income and uninsured women and men.
We've seen this kind of ideologically driven move from the Bush administration before. Senator Patty Murray and I went toe to toe with the Bush administration to demand a decision on Plan B by the FDA. We won that fight and we need to win this one too.
When I learned about these proposed rules, I immediately joined with Senator Murray to call on the Bush administration to stop these dangerous plans. I am joining with New York family planning and healthcare advocates to spread the word. Now is the time to raise our voices. I will continue to press HHS and I hope you will join me. I have posted information on how to get involved here.
POLL:
Should Birth Control be equated with abortion?
11% YES
89% NO
Total Votes 40,448
Crossposted at RH Reality Check.
If the mainstream media had been paying closer attention, this week could have sunk John McCain's presidential campaign.
In just the last four days, McCain called the most important entitlement program in the U.S. an "absolute disgrace," his top economic adviser described the American people as whiners, McCain released an economic plan that no one thought was serious, he flip flopped on Iraq, joked about the deaths of Iranian citizens, and denied making comments that he clearly made—TWICE. All this before Friday!
Click here to check out the Cliff's Notes version of McCain's awful week, with video.
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McCain Town Hall attendees get escorted out again
For Immediate ReleaseJuly 7, 2008Contact: Michael Huttner303-931-4547 cell
DENVER, Colo.-On orders from Senator John McCain's security detail, Denver police escorted a 61-year-old woman away who was waiting in line to attend a so-called town hall meeting with McCain that was billed as open to the public.
Carol Kreck, who works as a librarian in Denver, held a homemade sign reading "McCain = Bush." On orders from McCain's security detail, police cited her for trespassing and escorted her to the sidewalk. She was told if she returned she would be arrested.
"And all I did was carry a sign that said McCain = Bush," Kreck said. "And for everyone who voted for Bush, I don't see why it's offensive to say McCain = Bush."
This episode by McCain's Secret Service appears to be a rerun of McCain's 2005 town hall in Denver with President Bush in which the Secret Service had three Denver citizens removed from an "open" event where McCain was campaigning with Pres. Bush for his plan to privatize social security.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lyaMrS0hzk
McCain and Bush: The same record on the economy
Senator McCain was in town to speak about his economic agenda, outlining more of the same failed policies of George W. Bush. McCain's plan, like Bush's gives break after break to millionaires and wealthy corporations, but does little for middle class families.
Bush said, "The fundamentals are strong. We're just in a rough patch." (Los Angeles Times, 2/2/08).
McCain said, "I still believe our fundamental underpinnings of our economy are strong." (CNN 1/22/08). McCain actively supports Bush's failed policies. According to Congressional Quarterly, McCain supported President Bush a majority of the time-supporting Bush as much as 100 percent in 2008 and 95 percent in 2007. [CQ Voting Studies, Accessed, 5/15/08]
The Wall Street Journal reported that McCain policies will "explode deficit" or result in "unprecedented spending cuts equal to one-third of federal spending on domestic programs." [WSJ, 4/22/2008]
McCain and Bush: The same record on tax cuts
Bush said, "We need to make the tax cuts permanent." (President's Speech on the economy at the EEOB, 2/19/04.)
McCain said, "I'll make the Bush tax cuts permanent.... I've said 500 times that I want the tax cuts to be made permanent." (NBC "Meet the Press," 1/27/08). McCain makes Bush's tax cuts permanent, and calls for a $1.7 trillion tax cut for corporations according to a Center for American Progress Action Fund report.
McCain's corporate tax cuts would give $3.8 billion in tax breaks to the 5 biggest oil companies and $1.9 billion in tax breaks to the 10 biggest health insurers. Meanwhile, families who are struggling to pay the bills get much less.
America's top 5 oil companies Exxon, Shell, Valero and others would stand to receive a $3.8 billion tax break, while the average family might save $44.40 from McCain's gas holiday.
McCain Supported Bush 100 Percent in 2008 and 95 Percent in 2007. According to Congressional Quarterly, McCain supported President Bush a majority of the time-supporting Bush as much as 100 percent in 2008 and 95 percent in 2007. According to CQ, "CQ tries to determine what the president personally, as distinct from other administration officials, does and does not want in the way of legislative action. This is done by analyzing his messages to Congress, news conference remarks and other public statements and documents." [CQ Voting Studies, Accessed, 5/15/08]
