one of the headline on cnn ticker was obama claiming that the odds for him winning are very good. Now he's facts are right being that he has a sixty some percent chance of winning, but we're not dealing with statistics or trade ins, we're dealing with real votes which could be affected by perceptions. A sense of pride could influence these perceptions.
I will strongly warn the Sen. to be careful of what he says from now till the election day. it really wasnt the smartedt thing when he is at the point in time where he is most vulnerable to accusations of pride and over confidence, this actually refers to his just concluded oversees trip which was a huge success, but could also be taken by independents that matter as a sign of pride and presumptiousness. sen. Obama, you've got to be very careful. What happened to you claiming that you're the underdog in this race? Hillary's race should be a big example for you and shouldn't be forgotten so soon. Let me also point out that the statement was followed by him saying that it would be very difficult still. Not everyone will be patient enough or tolerant to read or hear it through.
Over the past few days, we've heared that Sens. Chuck Hagel and Jack Reed will be accompanying Barack Obama on his foreing trip. Amid that information, we've speculations that Hagel might just be Obama's running mate. The chances of that happening doesnt realy look pretty. I really dont know how democrats will take it if it happened. I believe it would anger the far left of his party. I'm also not so sure that Sen. Hagel can put his homestate of Nebraska into play or even other states in the region. I also dont see how Obama can argue in favor of Hagels political ideologies to at least make him acceptable to the democratic fold because i will think the only agreements the both of them have is on Iraq and some other foreign affairs matters.For the pros, i think it also won't be a bad idea. The choice will re-emphasise Obama's core message of working across party lines and bringing unity, and there could be no other better way of proving that. I think the most compelling argument for Hagel being on that ticket will be that he brings the national security and foreign affairs cred that Obama needs badly. He also will be able to bring those in the middle to be more drawn to Obama by providing a little more reassurance.
Overall, i dont know how it will work out, having two people from different parties on the same ticket. The most tempting question to me is, God forbid, somethinh happens to Obama, and a republican takes over the white house, owouldn't it work that way.
The news media will be saturated with Obama's visit to Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, Palestine, Germany, Britain and france. I think this foreign trip is long overdue and there could also be no better time to embark on one. For all, it should help him shore up is national security and foreign affairs credentials, eventhough i don't know how much a visit does compared to steady briefings and information gatherings.
Over the last week, we have seen a tightening of the polls, most especially the daily tracking polls from Rasmussen and a slight advantage in Obama's favour in the Gallup polls. I would hope this foreign trip would give him that well needed boost as we saw for McCains numbers during the prolonged democratic nomination battle as long as nothing negative occurs or is reported. Personally, i think it will be a successful one, and i have no doubt in my mind.
I will also advise the Obama campaign to do everything in moderation and to extinguish every sense of cockiness. More specifically, choosing speech sites or venues. They should remember that their candidate is not yet the president and should be there as a candidate just to listen for the most part. Obama himself has said he is going to do just that and we can trust him on that.
On Obama's visit to palestine, i think it's a wise idea and shouldn't hurt him amid reports of concern that Obama might appear to be appealing to Hamas and associates. For one, President Mahmmoud Abbas isn't a Hammas member eventhough he happens to share the government with them.I think strong leaders should be willing to talk to both their friends and adversaries. I also believe McCain made a blunder when he declined Abbas's invitation on his trip to Israel the last time. You cannot be a fair judge if you don't appeal to both sides, so if there's anything we've learnt from that incident, We know McCain might just pander to Israel. Even a sizeable amount of Israeli's seek negotiation with the palestinians amid equity and fairness. That is what a fair broker should represent.
On the situation in Iraq, we know the McCain campaign cannot wait for Obama to get there and give his take on the visit. They are already ready to label him as a flip-flopper or as one who wont listen to his commanders based on their advise.
We're only just wrapping up the first week of july, it seems like November is not just going to come, obviously, it would, just cant wait. Maybe both campaigns are are hoping they have more time on their hands to do some damage. Well, all i can is that its a long time from now and it's a short time from now for those running the campaigns. I just hope my candidate wins on the 4th/ 5th..no florida/ohio heartbreaks
