According to Howard Wolfsson, "the road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue goes through Pennsylvania.". I have done some calculations, and gone through the map, and i found that we don't have to win Pennsylvania to win the GE.
In the map below, the states that Kerry won are marked with blue. The states Bush won by a wide margin are colored red. Swing states are colored green. Kerry won PA,but I have colored it red to prove my point.
The blue states are the states Kerry won in 2004, green states was close and red states was Bush states.
I will give a small explanation. I will assume that a combination of Bushs record low approval rating, along with 8 years of republican rule will get democratic voters out in droves, hence securing the Kerry states quite easy. I have chosen to use a very conservative prediction, keeping both Florida and Ohio in red. That leaves Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia as swing states. Usually Arizona would be among the swing states, but considering Senator McCain is from Arizona, I have put it in the red column. Assuming that we lose Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania we will have to win all 6. If we win those 6 states, it will be a draw. Giving each candidate 269 electoral votes. If that happens, the house of representatives will elect the President (we better do what we can to help the dems keep the majority).
And another one....
With 9 races to go, and a 150 delegate lead, the race for the democratic nomination is all but decided.
Despite their desperate spin, the Clinton camapign have no plausible way of getting first to the finish line. In the next weeks, maybe months, they will do everything they can to sow doubts about Barack chances of winning in November, hoping to make him unelectable, and hence move to superdelegates over to her. There is nothing to suggest such a strategy would work. Even though they won't say it out loud, the undecided superdelegates, and the DNC, know that they can not overturn the primary results.
This year is made for the democratic party. Bush has a record low approval rating, only 28 % which is the lowest approval rating of any President since the depression. Richard Nixon, who comitted a crime while in office, didn't reach as low numbers as Bush has. The war in Iraq, an economic recession and a moral possible engagement in torture are just some of the issues that are troubling to American voters. And no matter how much Senator McCain will try to distance himself from President Bush, these issues will stick to him. In fact, the democrats could probably run a three, and still win, if they decided to unite behind it.
There is only one thing that can ruin this for the democratic party, a brokered convention. With an african american man and a woman as the two frontrunners, this primary have led to record turnouts. Undubtedly there are voters among both candidates votergroups that will stay home, or vote for a different candidate should their candidate lose. However the size of that group can not be determined by polls. There is still over 6 months until the general election, and todays primary will be forgotten by then. Still, because of the hostile fronts between the two candidates, it is crucial to solve this as soon as possible. If this goes to the convention, there will be even more hostility between the two votergroups, and not enough time to heal the wound. And should the superdelegates overturn the primary result, and vote for HRC, there is no doubt that a many Barack voters will refrain from voting, or vote for McCain in the general election.
The Clintons have in recent weeks sought to cast doubt about Baracks electability. Comparing him to George McGovern and Michael Dukakis. This is a dubious comparison. In the last 107 years, only three elected Presidents have served just 4 years. History tells us that a sitting President almost always wins his re-election bid. That is why most establishments candidates with presidential ambitions usually don't run for President in second term elections. That is the reason why Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, and that is the reason why George McGovern was the nominee in 72. But McGovern was far to liberal to ever have a real chance at getting elected. His own VP candidate said he wanted to legalize pot. That compared with the same VP candidates history of mental illness made it impossible to get elected. It didn't help that Presiden Nixon actually was quite popular either.
Michael Dukakis faced some of the same problems. He was running against Reagans VP, people had been satisfied with Reagans presidency, and hoped that George Bush sr. could build on that. When voters are satisfied, they turn to other issues then policy when they decide who to vote for. The republicans smear campaign, together with his very weak answers on capital punishment, was enough to create doubt among voters. If Dukakis should have any chance at getting elected, he would have to do everything right. Which he didn't.
Barack does not have this problem. He has a trumph card, that can neutralize almost all republican smear attacks. Whatever they come up with, he essentially only has to say two words, "Iraq war". If he adds some words about the economy they will be on defence.
Barack have run against one of the best political machines in history this primary season. His road to the nomination have been tough and challenging. There is no doubt that the long fight have left him more prepared to meet the republican in the fall. Only a very strong candidate can go up against the Clintons and win.
These comparisons to Dukakis and McGovern, is only a smear attack from a united front of Clinton people and republicans hoping to undermine his candidacy. They know he is nothing like any of them, but they are hoping to create a impression that he is, in an attempt to damage his electability argument. Do not fall for this. Unless this nomination fight keeps on going to the election, Barack will be sworn in as President in january 2009.
