Due to a confusing primary ballot in CA, tens of thousands of voters who are registered as "decline to state" for their party (i.e. independents) are not having their ballots counted.

A progressive group called The Courage Campaign has been working to have this addressed, and has been getting some traction with government officials.  Still, at this point, they're merely doing some random sampling of the affected ballots to see just what the mess is, rather than going through and counting them all.

Sign this petition to encourage them to count every vote.

A few more great links.

The first one is an excellent assessment of the race so far, and why Barack Obama is well situated to win.

The second is a short and sweet look at Obama's foreign policy, and why contrary to popular wisdom, he's not naive about the subject - rather, he's actually much more of a realist than Clinton.

Last is an insightful look inside the Clinton campaign by a journalist that's been covering its inner workings from the beginning.  This isn't the sort of spin and conjecture that pretends to be journalism on the national TV programs.  This is based on studying the campaign, conducting interviews, analyzing leaked memos, etc.  And it's extraordinary.  Some of the management mistakes in that campaign are reminiscent of the poor management that we've had in the White House for the last 7 years. 

First, here's an excellent and in-depth analysis of the election road ahead, and the excellent chances for Obama to win the nomination.

On a lighter note, here's a spoof of the McCain campaign.  What if they tried to do something as cool as the Yes We Can video for the McCain campaign?  Uh oh.  Good luck with that.

Finally, here's the source I've been going to for delegate math, demconwatch. 

A couple of weeks ago, the local Obama For American person for the 45th ld called me up and talked me into making some phone calls.  Ugh, I thought, cold calling people and trying to talk them into voting for my candidate.  Next thing I knew I was the precinct captain, and then the area captain for Juanita High School which had 23 precincts and 113 delegates up for grabs.

Then, it turned out that Rita, the coordinator for the 45th, was heading out of town to work the Colorado caucus, and they needed me to fill in for that role.  Now I was looking at trying to keep track of 160 precincts and 722 possible delegates.  What had I gotten myself into?

Once the campaign staff got settled in, they started to provide us with access to database and phonebanking tools.  Rita had already set up quite a few volunteers, but there was still so much to do.  I planned for two days of "vacation" Thurs and Fri so I could try ot keep up with things.

Meanwhile, I kept finding out about things I needed to do to coordinate with the Democratic Party.  Attend the general membership meeting for the 45th, ok.  Oh, they want each campaign to give a report?  Not prepared in the least, I probably sounded disorganized and naive (mainly because I was).  But people were very receptive and energetic.  Later I saw that a poll of their membership through their Yahoo! group was 80% Obama.  I guess it was an easy crowd to speak to.

Early in the week before the caucus, the focus was on phonebanking - get out the word about the caucus, find more volunteers, etc.  As it turned out, I think the news coverage and candidate visits were huge in getting people interested in the caucus, and I think people were very resourceful in finding what they needed to do.  10 days before the caucus there was little awareness of it when we were calling; a couple of days before, everyone knew and was planning to go.  As much as I'd like to take the credit for that, we just didn't have enough people working the phones in the 45th to make that size of difference.  Credit goes to all the individual Obama supporters out there.

Phonebanking did well for identifying volunteer prospects, but far more useful was the data that was coming out of the website signups.  By mid=week we were shifting to getting more precinct captains, identifying area captains, getting information out to people, and connecting people with each other.  This part was incredibly gratifying, because so many people were delighted to get a chance to volunteer - all they needed were tools and a direction.  Some of our key volunteers from the start of the phonebanking push were instrumental here, in making calls into areas where we had no one, and driving buttons and signs around to them.

My "vacation" days Thursday and Friday were spent working 14 - 16 hour days.  Pulling lists of potential volunteers from the database, organized by precinct.  Assembling information and getting it out to people.  Tinkering with my mail program because I was sending so many messages that I was over the daily limit allowed by my hosting company.  Calling and leaving messages all afternoon to recruit volunteers, and coordinating other people (thanks Katy!) doing the same.  By this  time, Rita was back, and I was also serving a secretary and database resource for all of her efforts.  Spending most of the night just responding to calls and emails.  Getting email threads started among the volunteers at each location.

The difference that it made was not what I'd imagined in the beginning.  I thought we were going to have to spend a lot of time on the phones, just convincing people to support Obama, convincing them that it was worth their time to go to the caucus.

In actual fact, what our effort contributed was not to drive turn-out.  Barack Obama himself, and the contagious enthusiasm he produces in people, did that job for us.  What we contributed was providing people with signs & buttons, and encouraging them to arrive early and make Barack Obama a presence all over the location.  We answered their questions about the caucus, and got the excellent materials from the campaign HQ out to them so they could be prepared.  We made sure they knew how things were supposed to work, so that they could send up a red flag if something was not going correctly (nothing like this happened in the 45th to my knowledge).

It didn't go perfectly.  Some locations still only had one volunteer; some locations were only organized at the last possible minute; some locations didn't get nearly enough materials; and one location had the area captain show up too late with the materials to really make an impact.

It felt incredible to have helped Obama supporters in nearly every location to walk into their caucus with confidence, tools, and knowledge.  And I'm sure it made a big difference for everyone out there, at least in terms of the caucus experience.  Did it get a few more votes?  I think it probably did, primarily because people knew about the speaking opportunities and were prepared; I'm sure many of the speeches given were effective in swaying uncommitteds, Edwards, and Kucinich supporters.

I didn't think my speech at Juanita was too hot, mainly because I wasn't prepared for all the cheering people would do, and it flustered me.

My precinct in 2004 had 18 attendees.  This time it had 63.  Our 8 delegates went 6 Obama, 2 Clinton.  It was exciting to get two of the young people lined up as Obama delegates; my wife thinks that they could become the next Obama Girls.

Finally, to end the day, watching Obama's victory speech on a big tv down at the campaign party at FX Mcrory's downtown.  People were pumped up and so happy, and Barack was at his most fiery at the podium.

Simply amazing, Washington.  I'm proud of the efforts I was able to contribute, but the real credit goes to all the people who were so inspired, whether they were chipping in as volunteers or simply showing up to cast their vote.

We're going to take this nomination, and then we're going to take back the White House!  It's time to change America! 

I don't even know who most of these artists are.  But I'm not ashamed to say that this moved me to tears.

Yes We Can music video on Youtube 

You can see today's daily national poll at the Rasmussen Reports website.

Poll results from the last day of Edward's candidacy (1/30) had 41% Clinton, 32% Obama, and 16% other (included undecided).

The first poll released after he withdrew (1/31) has 42% Clinton, 35% Obama and 23% other (including undecided).

These polls have a margin of error of a couple of percent, but it certainly looks like half the Edwards supporters hadn't decided what to do yet.  The other half seem to have gone for Obama at a rate of 3 to 1.

I thought Barack's statement on Edwards' campaign hit the nail on the head, in terms of recognizing the issues and stances that had swayed his core following.  Hopefully the outreach can continue, and the trend of the early numbers I gave above will continue to follow.

A nice article from author Paul Loeb (I've seen it both in the Huffington Post and on the John Edwards website), detailing how Hillary has set herself above the rules of the party.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-loeb/its-her-party-and-shell_b_83703.html

Here's an excerpt: 

If we look at Clinton's actions throughout this campaign, they consistently put her right to win above broader principles. Even the tears that turned around her New Hampshire campaign seemed to me to be about her frustration that the nomination she thought was her birthright seemed about to slip away.  As Frank Rich has written, even her choice to feature Bill Clinton in the campaign as lead attack dog risked bringing up enough old ghosts to sharply increase the likelihood of Republican victory in November. No one runs for president unless they are ambitious, but once you think you have the right to rewrite the rules in mid-course, or subordinate every opportunity of your critical allies to your own personal gain, you set up a precedent unsettlingly like the administration we have just endured for the past seven years. And I don't think we want to go there again.

Print out some business cards with caucus info and Obama info.  When you talk to people you know and people that you meet about the caucus and Obama, hand them a card so they walk away with something concrete.  There are also some good one-page handouts that you can print and have on hand, but I find that a short, to the point, here's what you need to know card is also valuable.

Step by step:

Go to an office supply store and get some printable business cards.  I use Avery form 8376; these are perforated so that after you print a sheet, you can split them up into individual cards that have nice smooth edges and look very nice.

If you use Microsoft Word, create a new document, and go to Tools > Labels (this has probably changed under Office 2007, try searching help for "mailing label").  In the pop-up window, pick the brand and form number for the card sheets you got, and type your message into the window.  Click the button to finish the label.

You'll have a one-page document with your info spaced out to print a whole sheet of labels, but you might not be happy with the formatting.  Fix up the formatting in one card, and then copy the text of that card onto your clipboard.  Close the document without saving, and go back to the previous step.  Now paste the text with your formatting back into the label window.  Repeat formatting, copying, starting over, and pasting until you're happy with the format.

Then print out your cards and start handing them to anyone who's interested in Obama and the caucus!

Here's the text of my card if you want to use it as a model.  Also, if you want a copy of my word file that you can start with, just contact me and I'll send you a copy.  (I center-alligned this text on my card for a nicer look).

Democratic Caucus is Sat, Feb 9, 1pm
Find your caucus location :
http://wa-demchairs.org/2008/caucuslocations.php
Facts about Barack Obama :
factcheck.barackobama.com
More info : call Jeremy at 206 409 8340
beanish@jazzbud.com

The state primary on Feb 19 has no impact on the Democratic nominee.  For your vote to count, go to your local caucus Feb 9!
 

South Carolina has usually gone Republican in the national elections.  Pundits have been, to some degree, writing off its importance on the Democratic race.  However, consider these numbers:

Total Republican Primary ballots cast in SC : 442,918

Total Democratic Primary ballots cast in SC : 530,322

That's a surplus of 87,404 on the side of the democrats.  Now, it's a bit of a leap to say that this would automatically transfer into similar turnout for the national election (there were some significant voting machine troubles a week ago during the Republican primary).  But it's also not a stretch by any means to think that since Barack dominated the unexpectedly high turnout (his margin in the primary was 2x or 3x what the polls predicted), that an Obama candidacy could turn the state of SC from red to blue.  Wow.

If you haven't looked at these exit poll results, here's a summary of a few of the most interesting things.

It wasn't about gender : among women, it was Obama 54%, Clinton 30$, Edwards 16%.

Age was interesting : Obama dominated among young adults, led among the rest of the age brackets except for 65+, which was the only age range that broke for Clinton.

Blacks overwhelmingly went for Barack, which we expected; the record numbers of voters was obviously a surprise to the pollsters (the most notoriously hard thing about polling is judging who is likely to vote, and has been the thing that they've gotten wrong over and over again this season).

Young non-blacks broke overwhelmingly for Obama.  Edwards - the third place, dark horse candidate - Edwards beat (or tied) Clinton in every non-black age bracket over 30.  I think this is a combination of Edwards' hometown advantage, possible racism on the part of some white voters, and a sign of whites being offended by the divisive tactics of the Clintons in the last week or so.

All in all, an incredible victory for Obama, let's keep the momentum rolling through Super Tuesday!

It's ironic to hear the Clintons talking about the importance of experience in qualifying for the role of president.  Here's a quote from this op-ed piece that quotes another Democratic candidate:

Another successful president scorned any need for years of apprenticeship in Washington, declaring, "The same old experience is not relevant." He suggested that the most useful training comes not from hanging around the White House and Congress but rather from experience "rooted in the real lives of real people" so that "it will bring real results if we have the courage to change."

That was Bill Clinton running in 1992 against George H.W. Bush, who was then trumpeting his own experience over the callow youth of Bill Clinton. That year Bush aired a television commercial urging voters to keep America "in the hands of experience."

I think anyone who made a leap of faith to support Bill in 1992 can much more easily make the leap to support Obama in 2008. 

Anyway, I highly recommend reading that article, which provides important and compelling arguments on why the "experience" campaign talk should be viewed as a non-starter.

Dirty campaigning and personal attacks are very effective.  The Clintons have a history of using those tactics, and are scared enough by Obama that they're pulling out all the stops.  But in the process, they're telling a lot of white lies and distortions, and some blatant untruths.  Could this rebound on them?

Here's one commentary from today that wondered, if a candidate is lying on the campaign trail, does that set a trend we can expect to see followed once they're in office?  Is it similar to the mindset that, say, for example, distorting intelligence and making up threats in order to justify invading Iraq?

And here's a short article summarizing some of the fact checking, and calling out the distortions, as reported in The Nation and The Washington Post.

I was speaking with someone who expressed frustration with the wide-eyed, idealistic complaints about negative campaigning; this person counters that it's effective, it wins elections.  In my opinion, the person's only half right.  Attacks and negativity do help a lot on the campaign trail.

But we've been through so much lying and deceit from the white house in the last 40 years that people have gotten deeply cynical about our government.  Barack is trying to counter that with a campaign based on truth, hope and integrity.  Campaigns like the Clinton campaign, on the other hand, erode our democracy.

See, for democracy to work, it takes an informed electorate.  A candidate like Clinton wants the right result (vote for me) even if it's for the wrong reasons (I fooled you into believing my opponent isn't strongly pro-choice).  This attitude shows a deep disdain for the elctorate.  It sets the stage for a pattern of lying and deceit once in office, and again, one only has to look at the Iraq war to see where that can get us.