http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080821/NEWS15/308210001/1215
Michigan – Independents, women and Wayne County voters helped boost Democrat Barack Obama to a 7-point lead over Republican John McCain in the presidential race in Michigan, according to a Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll conducted this week.
Obama's 46% to 39% statewide advantage is especially aided by a 39-point bulge among voters in Wayne County, including Detroit.
Elsewhere in metro Detroit and outstate, Sens. McCain and Obama are virtually tied, according to the poll of 600 likely voters. Twelve percent are undecided and 3% support third-party candidates.
Obama has significantly more support among voters younger than 35 and an 11-point lead among women statewide. Among men, the two candidates are virtually tied.
Several other recent polls had shown the race tightening in Michigan, which is among a half dozen or so battleground states expected to decide the presidential race. The state has 17 electoral votes.
Still, the numbers could move. Nearly one-third -- 31% -- of those polled said they could be persuaded to change their minds by Election Day Nov. 4.
Perhaps most striking is Obama's 17-point edge among independent voters -- a bloc McCain has cultivated since he first ran for president in 2000. Most experts say independents will decide this year's race because both candidates have strong support from core voters in their respective parties.
The poll shows the economy is by far the most important issue to voters -- 50% ranked it tops -- followed distantly by the war in Iraq, gas and oil prices and health care. And the poll showed Michiganders think Obama is slightly better equipped to help solve economic issues that have wrought havoc in Michigan. Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage were top issues for only 10% of those polled.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election
New Mexico – While John McCain has gained ground on Barack Obama in a number of states over the past month, little has changed in New Mexico.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama ahead 47% to McCain's 41%. A month ago, it was Obama by five percentage points. The stability of the race is emphasized by the fact that Obama’s support has been at 46% or 47% of the vote in three straight surveys. McCain has been at 41% for three of the past four months. Both candidates are viewed favorably by 56% of the state’s voters. Last month, both were viewed favorably by 57%.
When “leaners” are included in the current New Mexico totals, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 44%. Leaners are those who don’t initially express a preference for one of the major candidates. But, when asked a follow-up question, they do.
McCain is supported by 93% of Republicans while Obama earns the vote from 80% of Democrats. The Democrat has a very slight edge among unaffiliated voters. McCain enjoys a modest advantage among white voters while Obama has a 19-point lead among Hispanics.
http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/misc?url=/misc/inside_nevada_politics.pbs&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3a47c0e9e3-2bcd-439f-8b7a-bfc5884a1123Post%3a974fcb47-2db4-40f9-9761-e527efc77c3c&sid=sitelife.rgj.com
Nevada – A new RGJ/KTVN Channel 2 poll being released today shows Nevada continues to be a true toss-up in the presidential race. In the poll of 600 likely Nevada voters, 44 percent favor Barack Obama and 43 percent favor John McCain. The results also indicate that support for Libertarian candidate, Bob Barr, expected to do well enough in Nevada to draw votes away from McCain, is slipping. He registered just 3 percent support, while independent candidate Ralph Nader is at 2 percent. Six percent of voters remain undecided.
The poll was conducted Aug. 18-20 by Research 2000 and has a 4 percent margin of error. Results also show the two major candidates enjoy very similar favorability ratings among Nevada voters. Of those surveyed, 51 percent had a favorable view and 44 percent had an unfavorable view of McCain, while 52 percent had a favorable and 40 percent had an unfavorable view of Obama.
And as Washoe County Democrats have been saying for months now, Northern Nevada could tip the balance in the race, where it is a veritable tie. McCain has a 1-point lead in Washoe County. Obama is leading by 7 points in Clark County.
The results indicate that McCain's full-on television assault over the past month has done little to erode Obama's standing. However, it's also relevant to point out Obama visited the state a day before the survey began.
http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/cspg/pdf/HHH_MPR_August_President.pdf
Minnesota – According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads his Republican counterpart, John McCain, 48% to 38% among likely Minnesota voters. Three percent favor Ralph Nader and 1% supports Libertarian Bob Barr.
Despite Obama’s lead, the race remains fluid: 10% are undecided; a bit more than 10% of Obama’s and McCain’s backers indicate that they may change their mind; and half of Nader’s supporters and three quarters of Barr’s say they too may switch to another candidate.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2
Pennsylvania – Barack Obama leads John McCain by five percentage points in Pennsylvania for the second month in a row. Both candidates have lost some support from a month ago, with the Democrat now favored by 45% while his Republican opponent earns the vote from 40%.
When “leaners” are included, Obama’s lead is down to just three points, 48% to 45%. A month ago, Obama led by six when leaners were included.
The data in Pennsylvania reflects patterns seen elsewhere in recent polling. McCain has more support from Republicans than Obama does from Democrats, and McCain also wins more crossover votes from the other party. The two candidates are even among unaffiliated voters.
Obama wins among younger voters and those who don’t attend church while McCain has a solid lead among senior citizens and regular churchgoers.
McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of voters in Pennsylvania, Obama by 55%. For both men, that’s a three-point decline over the past month.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election
New Hampshire – The presidential race in New Hampshire is now a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Barack Obama's once-double-digit lead over John McCain is down to a statistically insignificant one-point lead, 43% to 42%. When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%.
The Democrat’s support has steadily decreased in the Granite State since he clinched the nomination in early June. Obama fell from an 11-percentage point lead in mid-June to a six-point lead in July. The latest numbers mark the closest the race has been so far this year.
The latest numbers show support growing for McCain from those in his party. He now earns the vote from 87% of GOP voters, up from 78% a month ago. Though Obama still has a 42% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters, support for the Democrat is down from 50% last month. He also has a 46% to 38% lead among women. Among men in New Hampshire, McCain has a 46% to 40% edge.
While Obama has a solid lead among younger voters, the race is close among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. McCain has a dominant lead among voters age 65 and older.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maryland/election_2008_maryland_presidential_election
Maryland – Barack Obama leads John McCain comfortably 53% to 41% in the reliably Democratic state of Maryland, according to Rasmussen Reports’ first telephone survey in the state since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the presidential race. With “leaners” factored in, Obama leads his Republican opponent 53% to 43%.
In early January, the last time Rasmussen Reports surveyed state voters, Obama led McCain 48% to 42%. But against Hillary Clinton, McCain was the front-runner 45% to 43%. Obama crushed Clinton 60% to 37% in the February 12 Maryland Democratic Primary.
Eighty percent (80%) of Maryland Democrats and 10 percent of the state’s Republicans now support Obama. McCain has the backing of 86% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats. Undecided voters give McCain the edge 49% to 42%.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3c299ac8-437b-4ecc-9f0e-2d2ba6a36e92
Indiana – In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3.
Among those who regularly attend religious services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago. Among those who occasionally attend, Obama leads by 14. Among those who rarely attend, Obama leads by 23. The field period for this survey overlapped with the candidates' participation in Pastor Rick Warren's Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency, held in California 08/16/08. Among men, McCain leads by 12 points; among women, McCain and Obama tie. Eight weeks ago, Obama had led by 7 among women. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, the two candidates tie. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 21 points; among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, McCain leads by 9. 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain. Independents favor Obama by 12 points. Among those who have graduated from a 4-year college, McCain leads by 15 points; among those who have not, McCain and Obama tie. Among those with household incomes of less than $50,000, Obama leads by 11; among those with incomes above $50,000, McCain leads by 18.
http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2008/august/081908hawkeye_poll.html
Iowa – Democrat Barack Obama is leading Republican John McCain in the battleground state of Iowa among both registered and likely voters, according to a new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today.
Among registered voters, Obama holds a 48 percent to 42.9 percent lead when "leaners" are factored in. Among those judged as "likely registered voters," Obama's lead is 49.5 percent to 43.1 percent, with 7.4 percent undecided.
Obama's lead is thus somewhat comfortable in Iowa compared to recent national polls showing the race tightening to as few as 3 percentage points.
In this month's Hawkeye Poll, only 38.6 percent of McCain voters say they strongly support him, while 64.3 percent of Obama voters are strong supporters. Obama leads or is tied in nearly every demographic group examined, except Evangelical Christians, where McCain is up 65.2 percent to 31.6 percent.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election
Florida – John McCain has recaptured the lead over Barack Obama in Florida, besting his Democratic opponent 46% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
Counting “leaners,” McCain attracts 48% of the voter while Obama earns 46%. That advantage for McCain is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
While Obama remains close in the polls, he is viewed unfavorably by 48% of Florida voters, including 57% of white voters. Just 49% of all voters give the Democrat a favorable assessment. McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of Florida voters and unfavorably by 36%.
Last month, Obama held a statistically insignificant one-point lead on McCain following a month where Obama spent a reported $5 million on television advertising while McCain spent nothing. That was the first time Obama had held an advantage of any kind over McCain in the Sunshine State. For the previous six months the Republican had been ahead anywhere from seven to 16 percentage points.
McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election
Ohio – Ohio, the ultimate swing state in Election 2004, continues to lean in John McCain’s direction, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
McCain attracts 45% of the vote in Ohio while Obama earns 41%. That’s little changed from a month ago when McCain led 46% to 40%. When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 48% to 43%.
The most discouraging number in the poll for Obama may be the fact that 51% of Ohio voters have an unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee. That figure includes 33% with a Very Unfavorable opinion, up six percent from a month ago.
Overall, 47% of Buckeye State voters offer a positive opinion of Obama. That’s fifteen points below the 62% with a favorable opinion of McCain.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Missouri_820.pdf
Missouri – John McCain has expanded his lead over Barack Obama in Missouri, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling. McCain’s advantage is 50-40, a seven point increase from PPP’s July poll, which showed him leading by just three points. Obama’s biggest issue is with white voters, who support McCain by a 56-35 margin.
McCain leads across every age group, and has the advantage with both men and women. Obama will need a good margin of victory with women if he is to take Missouri but for now that’s not coming through.
Florida – John McCain has recaptured the lead over Barack Obama in Florida, besting his Democratic opponent 46% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Counting “leaners,” McCain attracts 48% of the voter while Obama earns 46%. That advantage for McCain is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Susq_Presidential_August2008.pdf
Pennsylvania – In the PA presidential race, Barack Obama still holds a narrow lead over John McCain, with 46% supporting Obama to 41% for McCain; 10% remain undecided with 3% saying they would vote for neither or vote for another candidate. This includes 30% who are “definitely” voting for McCain and 37% “definitely” voting for Obama. This poll shows no movement from Obama’s narrow 46/39 lead in May, which means Obama has gotten no positive “bounce” since officially clinching the nomination battle over Hillary Rodham Clinton earlier this year. In a close contest however, Obama’s lead on intensity with a higher percentage of “definite” support could be the deciding factor that puts him over the top because it means his base is more solidified and his troops more energized than those of McCain.
Both McCain and Obama have virtually the same ratios in hard name ID and are liked nearly equally by the voters. For Obama, he is viewed favorably by 46% of voters, compared to 32% who have an unfavorable opinion; 22% have no opinion of him. For McCain, 44% view him favorably, compared to 34% who view him unfavorably and 22% who have no opinion. This again reflects the closeness of the race since neither candidate has succeeded in developing a positive image that is head-and-shoulders above the other.
In a separate match-up of candidates with Independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr in the race, Obama leads McCain 44/38, with Nader at 3% and Barr at 2%; 10% remain undecided. Given the fact that the race is closest in a 2-person match-up without the third-party candidates, Barr’s presence on the ballot could be a deciding factor that siphons away critical support from McCain. This is particularly important in the conservative South Central/Harrisburg region, where Barr is polling at 5%, which is an area McCain needs a huge margin of support in to help offset Obama’s big vote margins in Southeastern PA including Philadelphia where collectively more than 1 in 3 votes are cast in a PA statewide election.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3af2463a-4cc8-4435-989f-3ea28464ab49
Minnesota – In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 08/15/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Today, it's Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the survey's 3.8 percentage point margin of sampling error.
Obama leads by 8 points in NE Minnesota and by 5 in Western Minnesota. In the Twin Cities area and in southern Minnesota, the two tie. Half in Minnesota say the economy is the most important issue, and on that issue, Obama leads 50% to 44%. 83% of Conservatives back McCain. 82% of Liberals back Obama. Moderates break 5:3 for Obama. Obama is up 15 points among the less affluent. McCain is up 5 points among the more affluent. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 3; among women, Obama leads by 9 -- a 12 point gender gap. Among those voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 4. Among those voters older than McCain, McCain leads by 4. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, Obama leads by 3. 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, a wash. Independents split.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election
Georgia – John McCain now leads Barack Obama 50% to 43% in Georgia. That’s little changed from a month ago when McCain held a nine-point advantage. When “leaners” are included, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Peach State finds the Republican leading 53% to 44%.
The race in Georgia has remained relatively steady since March.
Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, who served in Congress as part of Georgia’s Congressional delegation, picks up 3% of the vote initially. But when asked a follow-up question only 1% remain committed to the man some view as a potential spoiler for McCain’s hopes.
While both McCain and Obama earn roughly equal support from their own parties, McCain has a thirteen percentage point advantage among unaffiliated voters. McCain leads by twenty among men while the candidates are roughly even among women.
McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of Georgia’s voters and unfavorably by 39%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable, 46% unfavorable.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/illinois/election_2008_illinois_presidential_election
Illinois – Barack Obama remains comfortably ahead of his Republican presidential rival John McCain -- 53% to 38% -- in his home state of Illinois, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
When “leaners” are factored in, the Democrat is ahead 55% to 40%. The longtime Illinois resident is now the state’s junior U.S. senator.
Last month, Obama had a 50% to 37% lead over McCain.
Illinois, one of the most reliably Democratic states in the Midwest, has gone for the party’s presidential candidate in the last four elections, including John Kerry who carried it by 10 points in 2004.
McCain has the support of 85% of Illinois Republicans, while 89% of the state’s Democrats are backing Obama. The Democrat has a sizable 51% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters.
Obama’s 55% to 36% lead among women voters is virtually identical to last month’s findings, but he has jumped out to a 10-percentage point lead among men voters 51% to 41%. Last month McCain trailed by only three points.
The Republican is viewed favorably by 52%, down from 60% a month earlier. Obama, who also was at 60% in July, is now regarded favorably by 64% of Illinois voters.
http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=18783
New York – The race for President continues to tighten in New York, with Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain 47-39 percent, down from 50-37 percent in July and 51-33 percent in June. Obama has a 54-34 percent favorable rating and McCain has a 49-41 percent rating.
“While New York has not gone ‘red’ in a presidential race since 1984, Obama’s lead over McCain has fallen from 18 points in June to just eight points today,” Greenberg said. “Certainly the dynamic in the race will change with the two conventions and the selection by both candidates of vice presidential running mates.”
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_818.pdf
Ohio – John McCain has pulled even with Barack Obama in Ohio, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling. Obama had led in PPP’s June and July polls of the state. It’s 45-45 with 10% undecided.
One factor causing Obama problems is that he’s not doing as good a job as McCain of getting folks in his party to vote for him. While McCain leads 89-7 among Republicans,
Obama’s lead is a narrower 75-17 among Democrats. Obama has the 45-28 edge with independent voters. The Democrats neglecting to choose Obama are disproportionately white, female, and middle aged, an indication that it could be former supporters of Hillary Clinton who are holding out.
Obama leads with women and voters under 45 while McCain leads with men and older voters. McCain is up 49-38 with white voters and Obama is up 80-18 with blacks.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/aug/15/rockycbs4-poll-shows-obama-mccain-neck-and-neck-co/
Colorado – A political battle for the ages may become a battle of the ages. Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are neck-and-neck in Colorado, solidifying the state as a key, swing area that will be pivotal in deciding who becomes the next president of the U.S., according to a Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll released Friday.
The poll revealed sharp divisions among voters by age and geography, with the candidates' approaches to economic issues a key to winning the state. Overall, Coloradans favored McCain 44 percent to 41 percent, but the gap was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points. McCain also had a slightly higher approval rating, 55 percent to 53 percent, also within the margin of error.
Libertarian candidate Bob Barr received 3 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 2 percent of voters with 8 percent undecided. That was the conclusion of 500 registered voters polled between Monday and Wednesday by Public Opinion Strategies. Public Opinion Strategies generally polls for Republican candidates. RBI Strategies, a firm that generally works with Democratic candidates, consulted on the creation of the questionnaire and its analysis.
The poll found huge gaps between the youngest and oldest voters in Colorado. Obama led McCain 56 percent to 34 percent among voters under 35 years of age and McCain led Obama 51 percent to 34 percent among those 65 and older. His support among Democrats 45 years old and younger is 89 percent compared with 68 percent of those over age 45, she said.
Geographical differences also abound. Obama lags on the plains and Western Slope, but dominates in Denver. McCain is favored in the southern suburbs, while Obama is ahead in the northern suburbs. Jobs and the economy were the No. 1 issue in Colorado voters minds when deciding whom to support for president, the poll said. Among those voters, Obama had a slight edge - 44 percent to 38 percent. However, voters who listed energy and gas prices as the top presidential issue favored McCain by 50 percent to 34 percent.
For Obama, the poll shows him leading 47 percent to 40 percent among suburban women.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election
Maine – Barack Obama has marginally expanded his lead over John McCain in Maine. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Democrat ahead 49% to 36%.
When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 53% to 39%.
Last month, Obama had a ten point lead over McCain, representing a much tighter race than the 20-point margin the Democrat enjoyed in June.
A noticeable change this month comes from voters not affiliated with either major party. This month, Obama now leads among unaffiliated voters 48% to 32%. In July, the candidates were nearly tied among this demographic.
While Obama dominates among women, 52% to 31%, he now leads 47% to 41% among men in Maine. The Democrat also fares much better among single voters than married voters.
McCain is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s ratings in Maine are 61% favorable, 36% unfavorable.
Maine has cast its four Electoral College votes for the Democratic candidate in the last four presidential elections. In 2004, John Kerry won the state over George W. Bush by nine percentage points.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election
North Carolina – In North Carolina, voters are leaning more in John McCain’s direction than they have at any point since March.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain ahead 46% to 42% in the Tar Heel State. That’s little changed from last month. But, when “leaners” are included, McCain has opened a six-point lead, 50% to 44%. That’s twice the three-point advantage from a month ago and McCain’s biggest edge since shortly after the Jeremiah Wright story became news in mid-March.
In North Carolina, McCain is supported by 87% of Republicans while Obama is backed by 74% of Democrats. McCain has a slight lead among unaffiliated voters, a reversal from last month.
McCain leads by a more than two-to-one margin among white voters while Obama is supported by 93% of African-Americans. McCain leads by twenty percentage points among men, but trails Obama by five among women.
McCain is viewed favorably by 59%, up two points from last month and four points from two months ago. Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, down just a point over the past month.
North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election
Minnesota – Much of Barack Obama’s 12-point lead over John McCain has disappeared in Minnesota. He is now ahead of his Republican rival by only four percentage points 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Minnesota voters.
Last month the Democrat had a 49% to 37% lead on McCain. In June he was ahead 52% to 39%. McCain is now supported by 91% of Republicans, up from 79% a month ago. Obama earns the vote from 89% of Democrats, down two points from last month. Among unaffiliated Minnesota voters, the candidates are essentially even.
Obama’s 19-point lead among women voters last month is now down to 13. McCain has moved ahead among male voters who now favor the Republican 47% to 42%. Last month, Obama had a slight edge among men.
McCain is now regarded favorably by 60% of Minnesota voters, unfavorably by 39%. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election
Colorado – The race for Colorado’s Electoral College votes is about as close as it can be on the eve of the Democratic National Convention in Denver.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain by a single percentage point, 49% to 48%.
While McCain’s advantage is statistically insignificant, it is the first time he has been ahead in Colorado in seven monthly polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports this year. It’s also the first time that McCain has reached the 47% level of support. Only once before this month had Obama’s support fallen below 46%.
A month ago, Obama led by seven points overall but by just three points when leaners were included. Two months ago, the race was a toss-up.
The new findings are consistent with a nationwide trend showing statewide results becoming more consistent with recent electoral patterns. George W. Bush won Colorado by five points in Election 2004 and John McCain is running about four or five points behind Bush’s 2004 numbers overall in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As a result, you’d expect Colorado to be a toss-up and that’s what the current numbers suggest.
If either candidate improves their position in the national polling, it is likely that the trend will carry to Colorado as well.
McCain currently attracts 90% of the vote from Republicans in Colorado while Obama is supported by 83% of Democrats. Obama has a modest lead among unaffiliated voters while McCain picks up more votes from Democrats than Obama does from Republicans.
McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of Colorado voters, Obama by 54%.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=90e886e0-135a-4500-9712-e7be3427399c
Washington – Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 51% to 44% in an election for President of the United States in Washington State today, 08/13/08, 83 days until the election, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle and KATU-TV in Portland Oregon.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, when Obama led by 16 points, Obama is down by 4 points; McCain is up 5. Among women, Obama had led by 22, now leads by 15. Among men, Obama had lead by 10, now trails by 1. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama's lead has fallen from 19 points to 10 points. Among voters older than John McCain, Obama's lead has fallen from 24 points to 8 points. Among those voters in between the two candidates' ages, Obama had led by 10, now leads by 4. Obama has lost ground and McCain has gained ground among every demographic group. One month ago, 14% of Republicans crossed over to vote for Democrat Obama; today, 6% do so. McCain now gets 90% of Republican votes. Obama is up slightly among Democrats; one month ago, he took 87% of Democratic votes; today, he takes 91%. One month ago, Obama led by 7 among independents; today, he trails by 2. In Metro Seattle, Obama led by 29, now leads by 15. In the remainder of Western Washington, Obama had led by 11, now leads by 8. In Eastern Washington, McCain had led by 11, now leads by 13.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election
Virginia – It’s hard to imagine a closer political race than the battle for Virginia’s Electoral College votes.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over John McCain, 45% to 44%. When “leaners” are factored in, it’s McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point edge, 48% to 47%.
The difference between those two results can be found primarily among unaffiliated voters. Without leaners, McCain has a twelve point advantage among those not affiliated with either major party. When leaners are included, McCain’s advantage grows to seventeen points, 54% to 37%.
With or without leaners, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans while 87% of Democrats in Virginia say they’ll vote for Obama.
These results are essentially unchanged from a month ago. This is the third straight month to find the candidates just a single point apart and that may be one reason former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who is well ahead in his race for the Senate, has been tapped to give the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention later this month.
While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it’s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by eight percentage points. Nationally, John McCain is running about five or six points worse than Bush did in 2004. So, simply by following the national trends, Virginia would be quite competitive. Additionally, demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor’s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/story.aspx?sid=518
Virginia – An InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey conducted for the Southern Political Report and its continuing pre-convention poll of potentially competitive presidential races in the South shows John McCain and Barack Obama in a dead-heat in Virginia. The telephone survey of 416 registered likely voters, conducted August 12, is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of +/- 5%.
Q. If the election were held today would you vote for …
John McCain: 43%Barack Obama: 43%Other: 9%*Undecided: 5%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election
Nevada – The race for Nevada’s Electoral College votes remains close, but for the fourth time in the last five months John McCain has a slight advantage. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Obama earns 42%.
This is the third straight month to find Obama’s support at the 42% level. Two months ago, McCain was at 45%, but his support slipped to 40% in July.
When “leaners” are included in the current Nevada totals, McCain is on top 48% to 45%.
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/wisconsin_poll_081408.htm
Wisconsin – Below are the results of a three-day poll of likely voters in the state of Wisconsin. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Wisconsin, aged 18+, and conducted August 8-10, 2008. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance? Approve 24% Disapprove 68% Undecided 8%
Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy? Approve 22% Disapprove 68% Undecided 10%
Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq? Approve 27% Disapprove 64% Undecided 9%
Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war on terrorism? Approve 49% Disapprove 41% Undecided 10%
Would you like to see the United States withdraw all troops from Iraq within six months? Yes 58% No 34% Undecided 8%
If the election for President were held today would you support John McCain, the Republican or Barack Obama, the Democrat? Barack Obama 47% John McCain 42% Undecided 11%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/FM_Aug2008Poll.pdf
Pennsylvania – The Franklin and Marshall College August 2008 survey of registered Pennsylvanians finds Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain by eight points, 44% to 36%. Obama’s lead is smaller among likely voters, 46% to 41%. Obama holds a sizable lead among younger residents, non-whites, college graduates, women, and residents of Philadelphia (see Table A-1). McCain has an advantage with Protestants, fundamentalist Christians, and residents of northeastern and northwestern Pennsylvania. Both candidates fare well among their party faithful, and Obama has an advantage among independents.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1201
New Jersey – With the support of 94 percent of black voters and a 15-point lead among women, Barack Obama tops John McCain 51 - 41 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent voters go 45 percent for Sen. Obama and 42 percent for Sen. McCain. Men also give the Democrat a slight edge, 48 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 53 - 38 percent. McCain leads 50 - 42 percent among white voters. Obama leads 66 - 28 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 51 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, as McCain has a 47 - 44 percent edge with voters over 55 years old the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. New Jersey voters give Obama a 57 - 31 percent favorability rating to McCain's 54 - 35 percent. Twenty-two percent of Obama voters and 22 percent of McCain voters say they might change their mind before Election Day.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c12aadc7-2830-4be0-8e30-a647afe3277d
North Carolina – In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2. McCain had led by 8, now 4.
In Raleigh, there is slight movement to Obama. In Southern and Coastal NC, there is slight, offsetting movement to McCain. Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent. McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent. Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points. McCain holds 86% of the GOP base. Obama holds 71% of the Democrat base. Independents can't make up their minds.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/election_2008_oregon_presidential_election
Oregon – Oregon shows no indication of becoming a swing state in the race for the White House this year.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters shows Barack Obama leads John McCain by 10 percentage points, 47% to 37%. That’s virtually identical to last month’s results when Obama led 46% to 37%.
When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 52% to 42%.
This is the sixth Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Oregon for Election 2008, and the Republican has never been closer than six points behind. Four times, Obama has enjoyed an eight-to-10 point lead, and once he was up by 14.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election
Iowa – John McCain has cut Barack Obama’s lead in Iowa in half over the past month but still trails the Democrat 46% to 41%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
When “leaners” are factored in, Obama leads his Republican opponent 49% to 44%.
Last month Obama had a double-digit lead on McCain, 51% to 41%. In June, after Hillary Clinton dropped out of the Democratic presidential race, he led McCain by seven points.
McCain had held steady at 38% for two months running, so the three-point uptick in the new survey is good news for his campaign.
Obama has the support of 79% of the state’s Democrats, while 84% of GOP voters back McCain. Among unaffiliated voters, the Democrat has a sizable lead, 46% to 30%, roughly the same as in July.
Iowa is viewed as a swing state, although the 2004 election was the first time in 20 years that the state had gone for the Republican presidential candidate. President Bush carried the state by less than 10,000 votes that year.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Colorado_811.pdf
Colorado – Public Policy Polling’s newest survey in Colorado finds Barack Obama with a four point lead, the same advantage he showed in PPP’s July poll. Obama leads John McCain 48-44.
McCain leads just 48-46 with white voters, while Obama has a 51-36 edge with Hispanics. Both candidates are polling in the mid-80s among folks within their parties while Obama is leading 50-35 with independents.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ff6d5cc4-2876-4894-8c86-7d8364057e52&c=77
Virginia – In an election for President held in Virginia today, 08/11/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama tie, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke and WJLA-TV in Washington DC. Today, it's McCain 48%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error, effectively even.
Obama leads by 13 points in SE Virginia and by 11 points in the NE Virginia; McCain leads by 23 in the Shenandoah and by 5 in Central Virginia. McCain holds 89% of the GOP base. Obama holds 86% of the Democrat base. Independents break 5:4 for McCain. Moderates break 3:2 for Obama. Obama leads slightly among those who have graduated college. McCain leads slightly among those who have not. McCain leads among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads among those who rarely go to church. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 9; among women, Obama leads by 6 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 9. Among voters younger than McCain, the contest is effectively even.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election
Michigan – Barack Obama still holds a solid 47% to 40% lead over John McCain in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters there.
Obama’s lead has dropped a statistically insignificant one-point since last month.
When “leaners” are factored in, Obama has a narrower 49% to 45% lead on his Republican rival.
Michigan is increasingly viewed as one of a handful of states that the election will turn on, so both candidates are now spending more on ads there. Obama just this week proposed $4 billion in loans and tax credits to help retool closed factories in Michigan, and his energy plan calls for federal funding to help the ailing auto industry produce more fuel-efficient vehicles. McCain is reportedly considering Mitt Romney as a running mate because the latter is a native of Michigan and is popular with voters in the state.
While Obama and McCain both have the support of over 80% of their respective party members in Michigan, the Republican maintains an edge among unaffiliated voters 41% to 37%.
McCain continues to lose ground among male voters. Obama has a slight 45% to 43% lead among men, compared to last month when McCain enjoyed a 46% to 41% margin. In May the GOP candidate had a 19-percentage point lead. Obama’s 49% to 36% lead among women voters is roughly the same as in July.
Obama’s favorability rating has fallen back to where it was in June. Last month 60% of Michigan voters regarded him favorably. Now 54% feel that way. But the number who regard him in Very Favorable terms has edged up to 36%. Forty-five percent of voters, however, regard him unfavorably, roughly the same as the last two months.
Those who have a favorable view of McCain have dropped from 59% in July to 55% now, but 22% now say their opinion of him is Very Favorable, compared to 18% for the previous two months. Those who view McCain unfavorably stands at 43%, down from 46% a month earlier.
Both candidates’ wives are viewed favorably in Michigan – Michelle Obama by 52%, Cindy McCain by 50%. Forty-two percent (40%) have an unfavorable view of Mrs. Obama versus 31% who feel that way about Mrs. McCain.
One-third of Michigan voters (33%) think McCain is too old to be president, but 59% disagree. Forty-three percent (43%) say Obama is too inexperienced to be president, but slightly more (47%) do not concur.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election
Missouri – John McCain leads Barack Obama by seven percentage points in the race for Missouri’s Electoral College votes.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows John McCain attracting 48% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 41%. This is the third time in the last four months that McCain’s support has been at 47% or 48%. The one exception came in early June—McCain’s support dipped as Obama was wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination.
Obama has been in the 41% to 43% range for four straight months.
Last month, McCain enjoyed a five-point lead in Missouri.
When leaners are included in the current survey, McCain leads Obama 50% to 44%, little changed from a month ago. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/washington/election_2008_washington_presidential_election
Washington – Barack Obama has expanded his lead over John McCain in Washington and now leads the GOP hopeful by a dozen points.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Obama ahead 52% to 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 54% to 42%.
Forty-five percent (45%) believe that most reporters are trying to help Barack Obama win the election while just 10% believe they are trying to help McCain. Those assessments are similar to the views of voters nationwide.
Obama attracts 89% of the Democratic vote while McCain is supported by 90% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 53% to 41%.
Last month, Obama enjoyed a nine-point lead.
Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of Washington voters, McCain by 52%. Those figures are down slightly for both men over the past month.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2008_wisconsin_presidential_election
Wisconsin – Barack Obama's 11-point lead in Wisconsin is now down to four. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama leading John McCain 47% to 43%. When “leaners” are included in the totals, Obama leads 51% to 44%.
Last month, in the first Wisconsin poll conducted since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Obama was ahead of his Republican opponent 50% to 39%.
Obama is supported by 86% of Wisconsin Democrats, McCain by 95% of Republicans. Voters not affiliated with either major party are evenly divided.
The Democrat leads by a 2-to-1 margin among voters under 30 while McCain has a seven percentage point advantage among voters over 65.
McCain leads among those earning $40,000 to $75,000 a year. His opponent is ahead among those who earn above that level and below it.
McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of Wisconsin voters, roughly the same number as last month. But Obama is now given favorable marks by 53%, down from 61% in July.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/massachusetts/election_2008_massachusetts_presidential_election
Massachusetts – Just as the presidential race nationally has tightened up, Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain in Massachusetts has narrowed since last month, but he still sits comfortably out front 51% to 36%.
Last month Obama led McCain by 20 percentage points 53% to 33%, but the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Bay State voters shows the gap is down to 15. In June, the Democrat led his Republican rival 51% to 38%.
When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 54% to 38%.
Obama has the support of 78% of the state’s Democrats, and McCain has the backing of a similar number of Republicans (79%). Unaffiliated voters favor McCain over Obama 45% to 36%.
Traditionally one of the bluest of blue states, Massachusetts has gone for only one Republican presidential candidate -- Ronald Reagan in 1984 -- in over 50 years. In 1972, it was the only state to cast its electoral votes for Democrat George McGovern.
