Barack Obama is in a full-court press for the next ten weeks as we decide what many believe the most important election in modern history - and few would argue the most important election since FDR's first election in 1932 - a historic election that set the base for modern politics.
Unlike 1932 however, this race will be close and re-define politics once again - despite the outcome. For starters. the electoral map will be redrawn regardless of which candidate wins and you can best believe that Democrats from this point forward will redefine their campaign strategy and how they raise money. Yet something is very odd about this race -- political pundits are pulling their hair out trying to figure out just how Barack can win this election without wining the traditional Blue states and still possibly lose Ohio and Florida.
After much study of trending data put out by most pollsters Barack's path to the Whitehouse will be unique. He can win several (as well as lose several) ways. First, he can win this race without OH and FL, but he cannot win without PA. Barack's likely path to the Whitehouse will be as follows:
VA (13) - CO (9) - NM (5) - NV (5)
There may be one upset in AK (3) - a bonus that may make-up for a possible loss in NV. Pundits are still considering NC - FL - IN as battlegrouds, but by all indications those states will remain Red. Obama's campaign does think that an upset in FL will seal the deal, so to speak, possessing internals that most pollsters are not caputuring - you don't spend the type of money that Barack is spending in a state (as in the case of FL) just so you can prove the "law of diminishing returns." What FL is not caputuring are the youth votes especially among Hispanics/Latinos and Women. Obama is also counting on the increased Democrat voter registration in that state to pull off a possible win that will surely surprise many - including me. Considering how poplar Governor Crisp is not only among Republicans, but Democrats (to include Blacks) is amazing; he is definetely someone you call when the race is settled.
So while all hands are pointing to Ohio - this historic race will be decided by VA - CO - NM - NV. A important strategy is how do you keep PA while doing all of this?! Barack can figure that part out, but one thing is for certain: Governor Rendell has to be on board.
Mark November 4, 2008: It's going to be a wild ride!
One thing that we know about you, Mr. Barack Obama, as you enter your second phase of seeking the White House: You want to elevate the conversation. But you don't seem to understand that on the surface - the media and some people (let's just say us) just don't want to follow. Having closely observed you for over a year, you have been consistent in your quest for a new kind of politics (you even wrote a book about it) that focuses on the issues that matter to hard working, every-day Americans - let's just say 90% of all Americans (even those of us that may think we are in the 1% of the upper-income spectrum, but really are the other 9% - so that percentage mentioned is conservative). You have a standard and consistent way of answering "hot-button" topics that steer back to the economy, energy, the war, and health care.
Sad to say that the media (and us) want just the opposite. We want to hear about the role of race. The media wants to get insight on the perceived feistiness of Michelle. Newspapers and Internet (right, center, and left) want to know just how the kids are being raised. Cable news is counting the number of white males and females that are sitting behind you at your rallies and town halls. We are all trying to figure out why the good people from PA should be bitter?!
The media doesn't want to talk about the long and short term proposal that you have on energy. We could care less about how your health care plan is structured. The economy?! Please. We have other things that need coverage: Just how will Paris Hilton respond to the McCain ad? Would Paris make a great president? Why do you hold your head high when answering a question? Are you arrogant? No, here is our favorite. Why are you having polling problems in the middle of August?! As if we (the collective we) cannot answer the obvious. Please!
What do you do, Mr. Obama? You answer media questions with integrity saying stuff like this: 'I don't think the back-and-forth between Paris Hilton and John McCain is what the American people are thinking about'- or words to that effect. How dare you try to make us think what's at stake. Can't you see we want it easy and dumb-ed-down-ed to the "sexy" issues that make us forget our problems? You know issues like the price of gas at the pump or the fact that military veterans cannot receive adequate and timely medical treatment?
No - we much rather hear just who cuts your hair and can he cut all types of hair or just African American hair? We would like to see Michelle "bob and weave" her head when she talks despite the fact she doesn't "bob and weave" her head, but rather is an extremely intelligent, poised, and professional lady - and is a great woman in her own right. We don't care about your strategy for having the big oil companies utilize their standard leases before drilling in other areas. We don't care that you plan to pay for the $1,000.00 tax credit for middle class families by rolling back the Bush tax cuts. And we could care less about your plan to tax windfall profits on these same oil companies, so that pays for alternative energy sources, and provides working-middle class families some short term relief through stimulus checks (I believe your coined it as relief).
But wait - you have a plan. You seem to realize that not all strategies will see an immediate impact - even the strategy of having an intelligent political debate - is that what you be guys call a communications strategy? I mean after all, you have been talking about a timetable for Iraq withdrawal for almost two years and even broached this topic in your book (something about having some audacity - but who remembers) - you know the chapter that discussed the world beyond our boarders. We forgot how you influenced decisions and our political debate by our sitting President and your opponent's campaign in just the last eight weeks. Only because we were to busy worrying about what's going on with you and Hillary Clinton. What did you and Bill really talk about on the phone?
It's amazing that you give us the opportunity to discuss real issues without beating us over the head! Why do you take such an approach? Why do you give us the benefit of the doubt knowing we have attention spans of two minutes on a good day?
I figure it's because you know we will pay attention to what matters one day. You know it may not even happen in this election cycle. I think you also expect us to see that there is only such much that you can influence; some of this pain will have to be felt - we can choose the method. I think you are trying to show leadership by example - isn't that what it is called - without stating that you are showing leadership by example.
You are giving us an opportunity to see why you love America so much. You know that we will eventually get it. It's just a matter of when!
Thanks Senator Obama for being the leader that you are. Now what is the name of those two books that lie about you and are bestsellers? We can't wait to read them.
Over the last week, John McCain has ramped up his negative campaign attacks against Barack Obama and it is working! John McCain has managed to close in on the polls in key battleground states - OH, PA, CO, and FL. He has also managed to come within the margin of error in most national polls and has begun to frame Barack as an "out-of-touch" and "risky" candidate.
And Barack Obama should be elated!
All last week when the negative campaigning started, Barack was busy overseas meeting with world leaders and nourshing key relationships that will serve him well if he is elected. He spoke before a crowd of over 200,000 people in Berlin, and has managed to meet with key domestic officials and politicians to discuss key issues: primarily the economy.
With John McCain going negative in the early stages of the Presidential campaign (pre-convention) season, this allows his (McCain's) message to play-out in the media. It allows for Barack and his team to assess a ceiling and adjust their message accordingly. It also allows the campaign to come up with a media strategy that sticks with the public - by all indications (and as much as Barack wants us to get serious about the issues) there is sadly going to have to be some entertainment and "silly season" politics involved; the question is how much - and from whom?
Also, Barack's campaign has time to partner with key organizations much akin to its recent partnership in fighting the smears with AFL-CIO. Move-on needs to be giving a "hands-off" apparoach on how to run their campaigns without a denouncement. Barack has time to "camp-out" in OH, FL, VA, CO, MI, MO, and GA; key states in which he has to win at least 3 of those 7 in additon to capturing NM and NH.
Yes - Barack should be elated because he has not even brought out the Clinton family and few key Senate-Congressional leaders have come-out on his behalf. He has plenty of money waiting for him post convention and we can see how all of this plays out. But most importantly, it allows Barack and his team to help penetrate the media narrative. Realistically, voters are not "junkies" that have the time to research every single falsehood thrown in the media. The voting bloc of young voters that tend to favor Obama is good; however partnerships with key organizations and their leaders are going to be needed to "push-back" when the narrative of the media skews to far right. MSM is key despite the alternative sources of media and news.
Team Obama will never have the luxury to relax; however, in the end with a 2-1 campaign ad response rate (favoring McCain) and a week out of the country, and McCain campaigning about as hard as I imagine him doing at any point - Barack should be ready to respond and elated to see a ceiling that will soon take place!
Despite pundits and critics - this is still Obama's race to lose.
The Democratic Presumptive Nominee, Barack Obama, has without a doubt (and despite your political affiliation) accomplished much during his campaign for President of the United States. There are the obvious impressive accomplishments that include being the first African American nominee of a major political party and his historic fund-raising prowess through individual donations absent of lobbyist or PACs.
And, there are those often overlooked (read non-sexy) accomplishments that are truly noteworthy that include organizing a Fellows program (yes, the boss receives the credit during his watch), leveraging IT (and not just social networking sites - but IT in its holistic sense), and organizing a true 50-state campaign strategy.
Yet Barack's most impressive feat is going unnoticed. He is the first President we had by proxy. Win or lose, Barack Obama has influenced politics like no candidate perhaps in history - and in any case, for generations. He has influenced the nation's debate on foreign policy, alternative energy, education reform, and the housing crises. He is President of the United States by Proxy and is yielding influence not just with the current administration - even George H. W. Bush gives him some credit and provides some generational advice - but also in the demeanor of politics.
Republicans implement his talking points on their remaining stronghold (national security); Democrats are less conferential despite being attacked. Politicians are getting serious again about the business of being a public servant, and the political business model now practices Barack's model of grass-net root involvement. When thinking about the impact Barack has had on our politics, one thinks of the corporate American intern or invaluable assistant hidden away from view - he may not be President, but he runs the place. He may not receive the credit, but we all know who structured the deal and made it happen. That is what Barack - being young, new, a minority, and a freshman Senator - is facing. He is facing what many confront when they are the "first" or the "rarity" of an organization; an inclination (no unpublished right), by the brass to take credit for the superstar. That is what is historic about this campaign - and no one dares acknowledge it.
That is why Barack will never be able to completely reside in obscurity; he was our interim President (de facto - "go-to-guy"). But American has a choice this election - they can sit back and hope that Barack shows up to the stakeholder meeting that matters, or they can do their part in electing Barack to be the actual President of the United States. To quote another poplar political figure, Bill Clinton, "It's all on you."
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We are a little less than four months away from the National election and the media and political "junkies" are up in arms about national polling for the upcoming U.S. Presidential race. I have one statement to make regarding national polling: National polling does not matter.
First, polls that are four months out do nothing, but gauge the current climate - the "feeling of America". The most important data from a national poll is to glean what issues are really of concern to Americans; however, poll observer beware - polling organizations put a "hotbed" topic as a precursor to the "Who are you going to elect for President?" question. The common dominator (or constant) in most polls is the economy, followed by gas, and related sub-topics such as job security, wages, and foreign policy. This data sheds some light and one could argue is reliable information; however, the question with the methodology does not do much for the observer.
Second: National polls - clustered within certain areas and without sampling data to support the conclusion drawn - are useless - and let's not forget the basis of registration, landline versus cell, new registration versus seasoned registration, etc. That is why so much "noise" surrounds the polls and finding consistency is a feat in and of itself. Outliner polls can reasonably be identified quickly; however, the media is slow to point out outliner polls and a "poll of polls," which CNN loves, includes outliner polls.
Third: Many national polls are going unnoticed (intentionally) if it makes the race for the Whitehouse short of a neck-and-neck horserace. Why is that? Because no one wants to see a landslide victory and it does not lend itself to a narrative being shaped in the press and it certainly will not keep you glued to the television. What would life be like if we just waited for the candidates to come to your town to give you "meat and potatoes" issues via townhalls and campaign stops when we can have Jesse Jackson's "hot-mic" comments and Rush Limbaugh's chaos --- all attached to national polls to shape an argument that has a 50 percent chance of supporting the conclusion!
Fourth (and here is the big one): The only polls that campaigns should be paying attention to at this stage of the game are state polls. Did anyone forget that like the Democratic primaries in which the nominee is a consistent delegate model, the President is elected through electoral votes (outdated: maybe - but it is what it is)?! So if we are sampling people to ask them who their choice for President will be - just where are they coming from? Now if I am either candidate (or a member of their great staffs), I would put credence on state polling data - specifically, MI, FL, OH, PA, CO, VA, NC, IA, and GA. Anyone remember the late (and very great) Tim Russert's statement in 2000: "Where FL goes, so goes the nation!" Well this election will be unique in many ways and the aforementioned states are delegate rich. Of particular interest for Obama are GA, OH, VA, and PA. If he wins two of those - he will be our next President. For McCain, his camp needs to keep an eye on PA, OH, GA, VA, and MI. If McCain wins PA, OH, and GA then Obama has a problem - McCain will be our next President. Now, no brain-ers are TX (McCain), FL (McCain), NY (Obama), and CA (Obama). Unlike past elections - this is a combo-election. It's going to be close - and please get poised for your poplar vote argument if you are into lever pulls by individuals.
So in the end the conclusion is this: When you read national polls that state: Americans prefer (fill in the candidate's name) - throw that data out of your mind - it simply does not matter. However, when you see battleground polls - especially from PA, OH, VA, GA, MI, NC, and CO - perk up and pay attention - because even this far out, the polling in those states matter. It's the combo-state Presidential election (and please provide proper credit for the term) - and it's the voter's code to crack.
