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FREDERICA (COLUMBIA, SC)

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Once again the media is following up on these attack ads of McCain instead of holding him to the issues. For more than a week McCain is supposed to have been talking about his plan for the economy. So instead of talking about the economy he switches to another attack ad. He threw the media off two weeks ago, when the story should have been about econominc Phil Gramm stepping down as economic advisor. He threw the media last week when it should have been about his comments about raising taxes.

My Experience at a Town Hall Meeting on Health Care Reform

By FREDERICA - Sep 7th, 2009 at 11:51 pm EDT

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At the Lexington Town Hall meeting instead of showing the President's plan they showed the GOP plan (chart included).
At the Lexington Hall Meeting there was majority Republicans of course, and a few Democrats. There was a share of outbursts here and there.
I sat up front and got to ask the people around me their opinion on Health Care. Some were unsure about it. Dr. John Black, the President, SC Medical Assoc. Said the? Doctor association (don't remember the name) was supporting the President's Plan, because of duress. Rep. Joe Wilson also echoed that other groups were under duress, to support the plan. What I find so interesting about Dr. Black everything he would support in a Bill in Health Care Reform is already in the President's plan. The folks love it, but they didn't understand that this is part of the President's Plan not the GOP.

Rep. Joe Wilson continuously spread some of the same falsehoods Republicans have been spreading in emails. He said that Abortion is mention through out this bill, which is False. He talked about the so called death panel and how the illegal aliens would take advantage of the Presidents plans. Some Democrats were fed up of the falsehoods and would shout out liar. Any information in reference to the President’s Health Care Reform Joe Wilson talked about has been proven false by the Media and the White House. Questions were put on post cards and drawn from a box. All the questions we heard were from Republicans. (Not to add there were several duplicate questions on the Post cards which was a waste of time.) I guess they were afraid of the questions if people got up to use a microphone.

There was one short elder lady that kept interrupting and calling Joe Wilson a liar with some shouts about Iraq. She kept getting reprimanded by the man reading the Questions on stage. At one point Joe Wilson directly reprimanded her for her out bursts (something about comparing to a chair and table). People were yelling at her to leave. After it was almost over she got up to leave and Republicans were roaring and clapping. As she was leaving and Joe Wilson was speaking she yelled something and another elder man went over and looked like touch her arm (? I guess to take her out). The elder gentlemen she was with stood in front of her and stared the other elderly man down.

After the meeting I went over to Speak to Rep. Wilson to ask a question. There were several people trying to ask questions and I was directly standing beside Rep. Wilson and every time I tried to get in to ask a question he seem to keep to turning around in the circle to answer someone else's question. Not to say this figured into the picture, but I was probably suspected as a supporter for the President since I am African American, and I was the only African I noticed in the crowd trying to ask Rep. Joe Wilson a question after the meeting. There were some people who kept mentioning after the last person had finish with their question, I was trying to ask a question. (He seem to keep turning in a circle in the other direction to answers someone else's question, mind you again I was directly next to him). The agent? I assume who was with Rep. Wilson said he would make sure I would get to speak to Rep. Wilson.

I ask Rep. Wilson How can he explain for Canada, who he said has everyone on a 6 months waiting list, can some how be able to provide health care since 2007 for any American unemployed or simply cannot afford insurance in the United States to come there to gain health care for a small fee? How can he justify the United States can't take care of his own? He gave be a blip answer, we can't afford it, and tried to turn away.
I then said the President's Public option was not free and that people would have to pay for it. The plan also help covers the gap for those that can’t pay for private insurance.
He also later said each country should take care of its own. Mind you Joe Wilson is not interested in providing insurance option such as a public plan so how could he say the United States will take care of its own? The folks chimed in...

He tried to mention the Trillion dollars the President’s health care program would cost and I said I understood it to be in the billions.

He tried to mention all the illegal aliens that have been driving up the cost, (when he mentions illegal aliens everyone began yelling about the illegal aliens. I had one woman pointing at me and screaming. I looked at her and looked away. I told him of all the millions Americans who drive up cost by using the emergency rooms to get medical attention.

He then mention all the small businessmen that would go out of business and all the people with private insurance would be removed from their personal insurance plan and I explained a public plan would be good for the small businessmen that could not afford providing insurance to their employees. Employees would be able to buy affordable insurance on their own, and people with private insurance would still be able to keep their insurance.

He kept trying to make people fear government involved in health care throughout the town hall meeting and when I was talking to him, I also ask him if he is going to ask all these folks around him to get off Medicare since Medicare is ran by the government. I then ask him does he support Medicare and he did say yes.
There was another woman next to me who kept yelling I was wrong about the small businessmen not going out of business. She said she would explain it to me, and I looked at her and told her I didn't want to hear from her because anything she had to say would be biased. Rep. Joe Wilson looked over his shoulder and smiled at her. (I had overheard earlier this same woman talking to one of Joe's Wilson's people. Apparently she and Rep. Wilson have talked before and also I overheard her tell she works for the Insurance Industry).
We had some other comments back and forth but that’s about the gist of it.
I had all the questions I could think of and so I left. On my way out small businessmen shook my hand and told me he actually understood the questions I asked Rep. Joe Wilson. He thought the President plans was a good plan, but was concerned about some of the penalties (some more of the Falsehoods Joe Wilson put out there at this Town Hall meeting).
Actually I believe majority of those people in that room would support a Public choice, but the Republicans are making it sound bad. One lady told Joe she was mad and she was afraid that the government was going to take her Medicare. Do you think Joe Wilson told her she shouldn’t worry about that in the President’s plan? NO, he didn’t tell her she was wrong, he overlooked this and referenced what he would not support this bill. One gentleman told Joe Wilson that he hopes he can put out more information about the Health Care Reform bill, because he just didn’t have enough information about it. C'mon he isn't going to get the correct information from Representative Republican Joe Wilson.

Well that's my long story, and my last Town Hall meeting on Health Care, so my mom can stop worrying.

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My Inauguration Experience: January 20, 2009 Was A Wonderful Experience In spite of the Cold

By FREDERICA - Jan 25th, 2009 at 7:12 am EST

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My Inauguration Experience: A Wonderful Experience In spite of the Cold I have always wondered what it was like when so many people saw Martin Luther King gave his ‘I have a Dream Speech’. On Jan 20, I was able to capture that feeling.

January 20 was a cold day. I arrived by bus. I was located far in the pack on the hill next to the Washington Monument. It was so cold my hands were numb; I guess I should have worn knit gloves rather than leather. I didn't notice when I dropped the hand warmer I paid 5 dollars for and I did not notice when I dropped the inaugural program I paid 10 dollars for from someone selling them in the mall.

I and so many others around me ended up being separated by the groups we came with. I turned around and saw my Aunt and cousin and in a few seconds of turning my head we were all separated. So looking around in despair I knew we could meet up at the bus, so I pushed further. As a matter of fact at that moment I ran into a block when an armor truck needed to inch through the crowd. As the crowd moved out of its way I like so many got behind it and inch through as it cleared a path to move forward through the crowd. That was how it was you were either moving along with a group of people are you were ducking and turning as you were following someone in military uniform or someone else who was able to dive and weave in and out through the crowd. What an adventure!

In spite of the cold it was a wonderful day. When I looked around me it was as if I stepped into another moment in time. I realized what it must have felt like during various times in history when people were able to embrace significant changes. The streets were similar to the ones you see in movies about wars. The people looked like they wore everything they owned to keep warm. You couldn't see the ground before you and the person in front of you had to tell you step up and step down. If there was a gate I often ran into because there were so many people you couldn't see that far ahead. People were climbing over fences just to get closer to the screens. Where I was on the hill was about a four ft climb up just to get closer to the screen. Oh I tried several routes to get to further screens up along the mall, but I kept running into a wall of people.I

think about all those people and I see the descendent of slaves, refuges, Jews, Christians, and any other group that were once oppressed because of just who they are. On that hill I thought I was in a forest, because there were so many of us up there. I did not notice the children playing on blankets on the ground until I was next to them. People were in trees and on the top of buildings (of course before the police told them to step down). This was a Pilgrimage in history for hope and change.

I'll never forget when a man said, he had to move because a Teenage girl in a wheel chair stood up on two broken legs. Of course people on the hill jokingly chimed ‘Barack Obama could heal the sick’, 'Barack could heal the lame'. I'll tell you something else that was funny; imagine my surprise when I arrived home my whole hair was frosted white. Immediately I sprayed some oil sheen on it. I love to gain wisdom but not like that. I guess it was just the cold air of Inauguration Day.

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If The Surge Was A Such A Victory Would Not The War Be Over?

By FREDERICA - Sep 30th, 2008 at 12:25 am EDT

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If The Surge Was A Such A Victory Would Not The War Be Over?

Political Philosophy is the study of government and the relationship of individuals and communities to the state. It includes questions about law, property, and the rights and obligations of the citizen. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy

ASK YOUSELF ARE YOU BETTER OFF THEN YOU WERE 8 YEARS AGO?

Logic deals with patterns of thinking that lead from true premises to true conclusions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy

If a Surge is a Victory

If the Iraq War had a Surge,

Then would not all the issues we faced during the Iraq War have gone away.

The Surge is more of a hollow victory, and more of a diversion tactic.

D-Day 1944 World War II was a Victory.

The the Media and McCain supporters want Barack Obama to admit the surge was a victory, when the surge itself is just some battle tactic that has been used time and time again through out the history of any war. Have all the suicide bombers been captured or ran out of the country? Do we still give a Green Zone? Are people still being killed because of the Iraq War? Just a few months ago a woman asks McCain would he considered reinstating the draft he did not disagree with that ideal.

(If the surge was such a victory would McCain and the woman have any need to even reconsider reinstating the draft?)

The following Article puts to question the Success of the Surge http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2007/09/is-the-surge-wo.html

« Paul Krugman: A Surge, and Then a Stab , "Is The 'Surge' Working? Some New Facts"This NBER paper by MIT's Michael Greenstone reinforces Paul Krugman's message (in the post below this one) that the "smart money" is betting against Iraq's survival. According to this analysis of the Iraqi state bond market, since the Surge began there has been "a 40% increase in the market's expectation that Iraq will default. This finding suggests that to date the Surge is failing to pave the way toward a stable Iraq and may in fact be undermining it." Here's the abstract, introduction, and conclusion the paper: Is The 'Surge' Working? Some New Facts, by Michael Greenstone, SSRN, September 14, 2007: Abstract There is a paucity of facts about the effects of the recent military Surge on conditions in Iraq and whether it is paving the way for a stable Iraq. Selective, anecdotal and incomplete analyses abound. Policy makers and defense planners must decide which measures of success or failure are most important, but until now few, if any, systematic analyses were available on which to base those decisions. This paper applies modern statistical techniques to a new data file derived from more than a dozen of the most reliable and widely-cited sources to assess the Surge's impact on three key dimensions: the functioning of the Iraqi state (including civilian casualties); military casualties; and financial markets' assessment of Iraq's future. The new and unusually rigorous findings presented here should help inform current evaluations of the Surge and provide a basis for better decision making about future strategy. The analysis reveals mixed evidence on the Surge's effect on key trends in Iraq. The security situation has improved insofar as civilian fatalities have declined without any concurrent increase in casualties among coalition and Iraqi troops. However, other areas, such as oil production and the number of trained Iraqi Security Forces have shown no improvement or declined. Evaluating such conflicting indicators is challenging. There is, however, another way to assess the Surge. This paper shows how data from world financial markets can be used to shed light on the central question of whether the Surge has increased or diminished the prospect of today's Iraq surviving into the future. In particular, I examine the price of Iraqi state bonds, which the Iraqi government is currently servicing, on world financial markets. After the Surge, there is a sharp decline in the price of those bonds, relative to alternative bonds. The decline signaled a 40% increase in the market's expectation that Iraq will default. This finding suggests that to date the Surge is failing to pave the way toward a stable Iraq and may in fact be undermining it.Introduction"We need a surge of facts." Tony Snow, Press Secretary for President George W. Bush, July 12, 2007 Is the war in Iraq worth its cost? The rationales for the war include that it plays a central role in protecting the nation against threats from al-Qaeda, ensuring a reliable supply of oil to the world market, preventing a humanitarian crisis in Iraq, providing an environment that allows for a stable Middle East, and ensuring the future of a sovereign Iraqi state. As of September 1st 2007, approximately 27,662 US soldiers have been wounded and 3,735 have been killed in the course of the war’s prosecution. The US has spent about $403 billion (Sunshine 2007) to date on the war and related activities, and it has been estimated that its ultimate costs could exceed $2 trillion (Bilmes and Stiglitz 2006). The current debate about the war in Iraq is centered on whether the Surge is working. There is a paucity of facts about the effects of the recent military “Surge” on conditions in Iraq and whether it is paving the way for a stable Iraq. Selective, anecdotal and incomplete analyses abound. Policy makers and defense planners must decide which measures of success or failure are most important, but until now few, if any, systematic analyses were available on which to base those decisions. This paper applies modern statistical techniques to a new data file derived from more than a dozen of the most reliable and widely-cited sources to assess the Surge’s impact on three key dimensions: the functioning of the Iraqi state (including civilian casualties); military casualties; and financial markets’ assessment of Iraq’s future. The new and unusually rigorous findings presented here should help inform current evaluations of the Surge and provide a basis for better decision making about future strategy. The central challenge for this analysis is to determine what would have happened in Iraq in the absence of the Surge. In the ideal, there would be two completely identical Iraqs--- one in which the Surge took place and another in which it did not. These two Iraqs could be compared to determine the Surge’s causal impacts. As a feasible alternative, this paper compares outcomes in the period before the Surge to the same outcomes in the period after the Surge’s initiation. In some cases the outcome variables were trending upwards or downwards in advance of the Surge. In order to avoid confounding these pre-existing trends with the effect of the Surge, this paper tests for changes in these trends. The analysis shows mixed evidence on the Surge’s effect on the current functioning of the Iraqi state. Perhaps the crudest expression of the security situation in Iraq is the rate of civilian fatalities. I find a substantial reduction in civilian fatalities in Baghdad and the rest of Iraq. Further, there isn’t a decline and there may be an increase in the number of hours of electricity available to Iraqi consumers (although not in Baghdad). On the less positive side, the size of the Iraqi Security Force was about 10% lower 25 weeks after the Surge began than would have been predicted by trends prior to the Surge. Additionally, the analysis finds that after the Surge oil production didn’t increase and may have decreased. Oil is Iraq’s primary source of income. The second category of outcomes examines the impact of the Surge on casualties suffered both by coalition soldiers and Iraqi Security Forces. The analysis indicates that the Surge had little impact on the number of casualties suffered by coalition and Iraqi Security Force troops. There is even some evidence of a decline in the number of non-fatal casualties per day among US soldiers. Since the number of US troops in Iraq was increasing in this period, these findings are noteworthy. The stated purpose of the Surge was to create the conditions necessary for a stable Iraq to emerge. These first two categories provide mixed evidence on the Surge’s effect on the current functioning of the Iraqi state. Making sound decisions about how to proceed in Iraq based on such conflicting indicators is extraordinarily challenging. For example, does the positive news on security outweigh the negative findings about Iraqi Security Forces (or the failures on many of the 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks)? In the face of this uncertainty, analyst judgment and politics may play too large a role. There is, however, another way to assess the Surge. This paper shows how data from world financial markets can be used to shed light on the central question of whether the Surge has increased or diminished the prospect of a functioning Iraq. In particular, I examine the price of Iraqi state bonds, which the Iraqi government is currently servicing, on world financial markets. Importantly, these bonds trade on world financial markets; for example, hedge funds hold a substantial fraction of them and their price on the secondary market is quoted in Bloomberg’s financial data services. The appeal of using financial markets is that traders’ only concern is to make profitable decisions and this necessarily requires making correct projections. There isn’t room for personal biases in this setting. Consequently, it isn’t surprising that these markets have a good track record at predicting uncertain future events (Wolfers and Zitzewitz 2004). Overall, the bond market findings fail to support the view that the Surge is helping to pave the way for a stable Iraq to emerge and may in fact be undermining it. After the Surge, the Iraqi bonds’ yield increased by 115 to 170 basis points, relative to comparison bonds. This translates into an approximate 40% increase in the expected annual probability of default. In other words, the world financial markets are saying that the Iraq’s prospects declined after the Surge. Examining bond yields to learn about the effectiveness of the Surge requires several assumptions, including that financial markets efficiently accurately aggregate public and private information from diverse sources. Further, the meaning of this exercise would be undermined if the documented movements in bond yields reflect domestic US politics. I find that the increases in default risk remain even after controlling for the probability that a Democrat will be elected President in 2008. This finding does not eliminate the domestic politics explanation, but it substantially weakens the case for it. There are several caveats to this analysis that bear highlighting. First, due to the absence of data that predates the invasion of Iraq, the analysis can only inform the question of the Surge’s efficacy. This paper is not directly informative about the broader question of the impact of the Iraq war. Second, the data on the current functioning of Iraq fail to cover many outcomes that would be of great interest and are potentially more informative than the available ones. Third, even among the available data, there are legitimate questions about quality and reliability. This is especially the case with the civilian casualty data. The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows. Section II provides a brief background on the Surge. Section III briefly describes the data file compiled for the analysis (there is a much more extensive discussion in the Data Appendix) and IV outlines the statistical models. Section V discusses the results. Section VI concludes. ... VI. Conclusions There is a paucity of facts about the effects of the recent military “Surge” on conditions in Iraq and whether it is paving the way for a stable Iraq. Selective, anecdotal and incomplete analyses abound. Policy makers and defense planners must decide which measures of success or failure are most important, but until now few, if any, systematic analyses were available on which to base those decisions. This paper applies modern statistical techniques to a new data file derived from more than a dozen of the most reliable and widely-cited sources to assess the Surge’s impact on three key dimensions. The analysis reveals mixed evidence on the Surge’s effect on key trends in Iraq. The security situation has improved insofar as civilian fatalities have declined without any concurrent increase in casualties among coalition and Iraqi troops. However, other areas, such as oil production and the number of trained Iraqi Security Forces have shown no improvement or declined. Making sound decisions about how to proceed in Iraq based on such conflicting indicators is challenging and uncertain. Moreover, this uncertainty may allow analyst judgment and politics to play too large a role. There is, however, another way to assess the Surge. This paper has shown how data from world financial markets can be used to shed light on the central question of whether the Surge has increased or diminished the prospect of a functioning Iraq. An appeal of using financial markets is that traders’ only concern is to make profitable decisions and this necessarily requires making correct projections. There isn’t room for personal biases in this setting and it therefore isn’t surprising that financial markets have a good track record of predicting future events. I examine the price of Iraqi state bonds, which the Iraqi government is currently servicing, on world financial markets. After the Surge, there is a sharp decline in the price of the Iraqi bonds, relative to alternative bonds. This decline signaled an increase of approximately 40% in the market’s expected annual probability of default. This finding suggests that to date the Surge is failing to pave the way toward a stable Iraq and may in fact be undermining it. In many respects, it is consistent with recent assessments that fail to find that Surge has led to substantial progress toward meeting many of the 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for progress in Iraq (GAO 2007) This paper has produced a series of new facts on the Surge’s impact. It is straightforward to update these facts as new data becomes available. Further, the new facts can be used to aid decision making about the future of the Surge. More broadly, the paper shows that even in unconventional wars, it is feasible to measure and analyze important outcomes to learn about the war’s success. Finally, it highlights that world financial markets may be an important new source of information to judge a war’s success.

Posted by Mark Thoma on Friday, September 14, 2007 at 10:08 AM in Academic Papers, Economics, Iraq

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Battle of a Life time

By FREDERICA - Sep 23rd, 2008 at 1:35 pm EDT

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When I was young, I heard that saying 'if you were black you had to work twice as harder'. Barack Obama is clearly the most qualified candidate for president, and yet it’s a possibility we may lose not because of any gaffes, but because the color of his skin. We have to double times our effort more than the GOP if we are going to win. We heard in the past’s months, and we heard it again yesterday, that White-Americans claiming to be Democrat will not vote for a Black man. I wonder if it was a choice between life and death leaving everything you own at a matter of a second would you have that black man, that black woman breathe life back into your body. Right now Americans are hanging by a thread not know which way to go and least we have a choice that is clearly different and opposite of where they were going.Just today, almost and hour ago, Sarah Palin and John McCain's campaign stopped the media from covering her first meeting ever with foreign officials. I wonder will this make people see beyond race and being beholden to McCain's Party. I guess until the Vice Presidential debates McCain insiders will be training Sarah Palin. By the way with all McCain’s gaffes it proves he doesn't know a thing about economics and foreign policy. I was sent this Article by one of the Obama Groups and it is a truly inspiring. I think every American should read this article.Know Your Stuff, Obama Supporters http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/16/9641/62473/762/599278

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Checks and Balancing the Oil Companies: New Interior Department Scandal

By FREDERICA - Sep 11th, 2008 at 12:06 pm EDT

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While the oil companies and the the Bush-McCain McSame campaign is chiming drill! Drill! drill! As if life it self depended on it, well we Obama supporters should shout back Check! Check! Check! And when they look at you dazed and confused, it's only because they are. It has been enough years with the GOP in office that we know they and the oil companies should not mix together. They don't really work together they more less play together. Play and make money with out any care that they are hurting the American People. They are children that need to be monitored, and that’s why we need Barack Obama in the White House. There is just too much of a pattern with the GOP in office. Latest controversy just comes out today CBS's "Sex for Oil Scandal at Interior Department"http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/10/national/main4436263.shtmlHere’s some more past evidence of controversial issues involving the GOP and the Interior Department: http://thinkprogress.org/2008/09/10/interior-illicit/, http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008May21/0,4670,EndangeredSpecies,00.html, http://www.pensitoreview.com/2007/03/23/former-bush-interior-official-pleads-guilty-to-lying-to-congress-in-abramoff-case/

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See article on the issue: Palin Block Funds For Teenage Pregancy

By FREDERICA - Sep 3rd, 2008 at 3:03 pm EDT

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Sarah maybe a woman, buy she does not stand on the issues concerning women, especially teenage women. Why she has no problem with recieving earmarked money for a Bridge to Know Where, she cuts the funding program to help teenage mothers. Well we know she does not care at all about endangered animal, but you would think she cared enough to support young women, since she is such a proponet to a right to life. Sara Palin washes her hand of the matter helping teenage girls inspite of their mistake. I guess a fight more for a pipe line in a Alaska is more interesteing.

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/09/03/palin-mccain-mothers/

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Interesteing article on Palin involvement in 527's and McCain is against it

By FREDERICA - Sep 3rd, 2008 at 12:09 pm EDT

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Once again poor judgement on McCain for his VP Candidate. See article 'Palin served as politicla director of 527s called 'Ted Stevens Excellence in public sercice,inc.

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/09/01/palin-527-stevens/

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Article:Palin's pork requests confound reformer image

By FREDERICA - Sep 3rd, 2008 at 11:25 am EDT

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The Republicans that first came out to praise Palin all were cheering her turning down a bridge to know where, just proves that they don't know who she is either. Supposedely John McCain is supposed to be against Earmarked money. This just shows that John McCain did not really knew her either. This says a lot about the judgement about someone running for President.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080903/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_earmarks

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/08/29/did-palin-really-fight-the-bridge-to-nowhere.aspx

http://www.peachpundit.com/2008/08/30/palin-was-for-the-bridge-to-nowhere-before-she-was-against-it/

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