I have created spreadsheets that detail all the States in this election, and have broken down each state by Gender, Race, Age, Party Affiliation, Education and Religion. I won't go into too much detail on how the predictions have been made, but most of the data comes from the US Census Bureau and Exit Polls from the 2004 Election. More information on methodology was described extensively with my first set of predictions.
Here are some of the sources I used for these Projections:
U.S Census Bureau
CNN.com Election 2004 Exit Poll Results
Graduate College Religion Survey- City University of New York
I have two sets of results for each State Prediction. The first model is a Low Turnout Model that assumes a similar turnout as 2004. The second and I believe more likely model is a High Turnout Model that assumes a much bigger turnout among younger voters and African Americans. Overall I project that Obama will win between 338 Electoral Votes and 390 Electoral Votes. I have also added another addition to this. I have created a spreadsheet with the Election Night Results with the Time Polls Close, and Projected Times that States will be Called. Before I go any further, I want to take note of Georgia. Georgia is a state I am now predicting Obama can win, and I project that Obama will win Georgia. The reason is the data we now have from Early Voting in Georgia. I have a brief breakdown of the Early Voting results below.Turn out Demographics: Black Female388,443 22.0%Black Male229,522 13.0%TOTAL BLACK: 35%White Female595,243 33.7%White Male474,379 26.8%TOTAL WHITE: 60.5%Asia-PI Female5,564 0.3%Asia-PI Male4,065 0.2%TOTAL ASIA-PL : 0.5%Hisp-Lt Female6,962 0.4%Hisp-Lt Male5,091 0.3%TOTAL HISP: 0.7%Other57,529 3.2%Total1,767,139 99.9%So what is the big deal with these numbers? Why am I confident Obama can win Georgia?First lets consider the total vote already cast in Early Voting in Georgia. 1.77 Million. That number accounts for 54% of the TOTAL Vote in 2004 (3.3 Million). Also consider this.. If an astonomical 25% more people vote in 2008 than voted in 2004 (4.1 Million), that 1.77 Million Early Vote total is 42% of the total vote. Either way just about half the vote has already been cast. In 2004, 25% of the Vote came from African Americans, thus far 35% is African American with half the vote cast. If White Voters as polls suggest vote 70% for McCain and 26% or more vote for Obama, that would allow the large African American turnout to push Obama over the top in Georgia. Even if African Americans are only 30% of the Total Vote, that 5% increase over 2004 could be enough for Obama, and my projection below demostrates how that is possible. There are similar numbers coming from North Carolina and Florida where nearly half of voters have voted, and African Americans are turning out in very large numbers.
My Detailed 2008 Presidential Election Predictions!You can check out your own state and see how every demographic group will likely break down in this election. Today I made some minor changes to my predictions after news broke that McCain was abandoning his Michigan campaign, and putting resources into Indiana and Pennsylvania. I also made some very minor changes to Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio after looking at some new polling data. These changes were minor and did not change the eventual electoral outcome in any of the states, but instead solidified Obama's lead in those states. Let me first explain how these election projections were made. Each State was carefully researched for the most recent census and other important demographic data. Using State by State U.S. Census data I broke down the state by Gender, Race, Party Affiliation, Age, Education Level, and Religion. Using a complex formula I did the following, I created a Demographic profile of individuals. (ex. Men-White-Democrat-18 to 44-College Educated-Catholic) There were about 216 Different Demographic Groups represented. Next I created a two part formula, the first was issue oriented, the second demographic oriented based on CNN Election 2004 Exit Polls.(http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/) The issues represented a wide variety of issues from Women's Issues, to Urban and Rural Issues, Foreign Policy and Economic Policy. I also included cultural issues such as Gun Rights and Racial Issues.By answering a series of Yes/No Questions regarding those issues, I assigned specific numerical values to each question either Negative (liberal) or Positive (conservative). On the Demographic formula I assigned importance based on exit polls from CNN. For instance Party is more important than Age or Gender. Race is more important than Gender etc. The end result is a formula that is about 90%-95% accurate. I double checked the results against Exit Poll Data from 2004, and they match up remarkably well. Political Party numbers do tend to be under-represented in my formulas but do match up fairly accurately, and do balance out in the end. I used Exit Poll data, and numbers of Democrats and Republicans in the state legislatures to determine likely voter models for each political party. HERE ARE THE FINAL RESULTS:I project that Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States!I project that Barack Obama will win with 338 Electoral Votes to John McCain's 200 Electoral Votes. (270 needed to win)Obama will win 26 States and the District of Columbia. McCain will win 24 States. Obama will win 51.12% of the Total Popular Vote; 67,531,664 - 338 Electoral VotesMcCain will win 47.03% of the Total Popular Vote; 62,130,227 - 200 Electoral VotesNader, McKinney, Barr and others will win 1.86% of the Vote; 2,451,238 - 0 Electoral VotesTOTAL VOTES: 132,113,129 - 538 Electoral VotesProjected difference between Obama and McCain: +4.09%Obama Projected Wins:California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Washington DC, Wisconsin. McCain Projected Wins: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia.Below is a full list of Predictions from every State and Washington DC.FULL LIST OF EVERY STATE AND WASHINGTON DC WITH NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE: Here is a full list of all state predictions:AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWashington DCWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming
I have spent the last two weeks working on a very complicated and detailed Excel Spreadsheet for the next 4 Democratic Primaries. I took data available from the 2000 census as well as from the lastest voter registration information from State Websites. I broke down the state into the major counties with the highest populations, and grouped smaller counties together. Using data available from government websites I took the data about voter registration in each of the counties to determine the number of voters likely to vote in the Primary. I then broke down the population by age and race. Using data from surrounding states exit polls, I used that information to predict likely outcomes among the various age groups and racial groups based on past performance. After formulating how many votes each of the candidates was likely to receive I then broke it down by percentage of the vote for each county and then for each state, and the approximate number of Delegates each candidate will likely receive.
This is probably one of the most accurate predictions that anyone will have on the web, and I was surprised by the results I came up with once I used some logic to come up with these numbers.
I want to comment on a couple of issues relating to the Debate because I feel it is important to speak out about it. I have had some inside information about how this debate was conducted and I think that CNN and those who organized this debate have a responsibility to answer for the way it was conducted. It was clear at the CNN Nevada Debate on November 15th that CNN was not unbiased or impartial in how they conducted the "debate" or in their post debate analysis. I give CNN an F on how they conducted this debate, and I will detail why.
You may have noticed that there was an obvious audience bias in favor of Sen. Hillary Clinton and often times an audience bias against Sen. Edwards and Sen. Obama. It was clear when Clinton gave her answers the audience was screaming and clapping, but on several occasions Barack Obama, John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich were actually booed and interrupted by protesters. There is actually a logical reason for this kind of not-so-subtle bias in the audience and in the moderators, and I have some inside information about what occurred in the last 48 hours before the debate that dramatically changed the dynamics of this debate.
Watch the Audience Reaction and How Nothing Was Done to Stop the Heckler:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70adwv66r7s
I posted the Top 10 reasons I will not support Hillary Clinton for President a few weeks ago on October 28th. I now have to post the Top 11 reasons I will not support Hillary Clinton for President because of a very troubling incident over the weekend involving Sen. Clinton. I have added as my Number 3 reason the newest addition to my list because it is one of the most disappointing actions taken by the Clinton campaign, and I feel it ranks right up near the top of the list. I have also added some new information about My Number 2 Reason, because of a so called "lost vote" on Iraq in 2002. Below is my original post along with my newest additions.
This is a quick summary of the reasons I am not supporting Senator Clinton for President:Number 11: Senator Clinton cannot stand up to the Republican "Swift Boat" style attacks.Number 10: Senator Clinton is not Bill Clinton, and she is being disingenuous about her record.Number 9: Senator Clinton is reported to have been verbally and physically abusive to her Secret Service detail.Number 8: Senator Clinton is reported to have been involved in illegal phone tapping of political rivals.Number 7: Senator Clinton's campaign has been involved in illegal fundraising efforts.Number 6: Senator Clinton asserts that it's good to take lobbyist contributions. Number 5: Senator Clinton has personally tried to limit freedom of speech as Senator and in her campaign for President. Number 4: Senator Clinton has put power over principle, and is not a strong moral leader. Number 3: NEWLY ADDED: Senator Clinton's campaign told supporters to ask Sen. Clinton only specific questions given to them by the campaign. Number 2: Despite assertions to the contrary, Senator Clinton has consistently supported the Iraq war, and has not repudiated her war vote. Number 1: Senator Clinton does not offer substantially different foreign policy on Iraq, Iran and North Korea than that of President Bush.
I consider myself a pretty liberal person who generally supports most of the Democratic positions on domestic and foreign policy. I have dreamed of winning back the White House for the last eight years since George W. Bush became President. We have witnessed a series of disastrous foreign and domestic policy decisions that have left our country weakened and have eroded precious liberties and freedoms we had taken for granted. I was dismayed when four years ago John Kerry lost his bid for President. During the 2004 Primary, I originally supported Dennis Kucinich, but later decided to support General Wesley Clark. Once Kerry was the nominee, I rallied behind him, hoping that his war credentials and long experience would lead our party to victory. As I sat in my Dayton hotel room and watched Kerry concede defeat my hopes for a more prosperous future faded. I've had time to reflect on the many mistakes that were made back in 2004, and I am determined to prevent those same mistakes from being made again. I knew I was pretty liberal growing up. When you come from nothing, and see poverty everyday you tend to care about those who are less fortunate and struggling. The Democratic Party to me stood for equality and expanding opportunity to those who need it most. I generally supported Bill Clinton's administration during the late 1990's when I was in high school. After all, Bill Clinton was a good President especially when compared to the current one. I had always thought it would only be logical that Hillary Clinton would be our President at some point. I was a huge supporter of Hillary Clinton for years. I have always thought that America has needed a serious change, and the idea of having new perspectives from a woman President is something I have enthusiastically supported. I never really thought Hillary was as charismatic as Bill Clinton, but I believe in judging people based on their moral character, their experience, their track record, and their positions. Many of her domestic issues are in general agreement with mine, and I think that many of her proposals would be good for America.
Over the last year I have really had an opportunity to research further into Hillary Clinton's positions. After a long, hard look at all the candidates for President and especially Sen. Clinton, I was forced to re-evaluate some of her positions. After months of research and soul searching, I feel it is time for me to absolutely, unequivocally come out against Senator Clinton's Presidential campaign. The reason I am writing this article now is because as I conducted research on Sen. Clinton and listened to what she and the other candidates have said over the course of the last year, I have discovered several things I never knew about Senator Clinton. These discoveries have led me to totally oppose her nomination by the Democratic Party, and if nominated, to totally oppose her election as President. To put it bluntly, if Sen. Clinton is the Democratic nominee, I will vote for a third-party candidate. I refuse to play into the lesser-of-two-evils mentality, even if that means my vote acts as a spoiler. My values and beliefs guide me to choose a person with strong moral character even if that person doesn't have a so called "reasonable" chance of winning. Below are the ten central reasons I will not support Hillary Clinton for President, and I want others to read my rationale and decide for themselves whether Senator Clinton would be a strong moral leader for our country.This is a summary of the reasons I am not supporting Senator Clinton for President:Number 10: Senator Clinton cannot stand up to the Republican "Swift Boat" style attacks.Number 9: Senator Clinton is not Bill Clinton, and she is being disingenuous about her record.Number 8: Senator Clinton is reported to have been verbally and physically abusive to her Secret Service detail.Number 7: Senator Clinton is reported to have been involved in illegal phone tapping of political rivals.Number 6: Senator Clinton's campaign has been involved in illegal fundraising efforts.Number 5: Senator Clinton asserts that it's good to take lobbyist contributions. Number 4: Senator Clinton has personally tried to limit freedom of speech as Senator and in her campaign for President. Number 3: Senator Clinton has put power over principle, and is not a strong moral leader. Number 2: Senator Clinton has consistently supported the Iraq war, and has not repudiated her war vote. Number 1: Senator Clinton does not offer substantially different foreign policy on Iraq, Iran and North Korea than that of President Bush. Below is a very thorough description of my rationale for not supporting Senator Clinton for President:
The President said he would take “every proposal” from the Iraq Study Group’s Report “seriously”, but one has to question how “seriously” he really took the recommendations. The bipartisan Iraq Study Group Report provided a detailed framework for moving forward in Iraq and included a plan to redeploy our troops from Iraq by March of 2008. Chairman James Baker warned Bush not to treat the report like “a fruit salad” and cherry picking only a few of the recommendations, because the report was designed as a “comprehensive strategy”. Instead of cherry picking the report, President Bush chose instead to throw the entire Iraq Study Group Report out the window.
Stop the Raid on Medicaid
Feb 11th, 2007 at 7:46 pm EST
Also listed in: Campus Progress Blog by Eli Corp.
"Potentially Devastating", that's how Rich Umbdenstock president of the American Hospital Association describes the President's Budget Proposal in a recent interview. Medicare and Medicaid finds itself under attack as the President sets out his agenda of budget priorities. The President spoke of the need to improve the healthcare system in his State of the Union address, but again his words are nothing more than the same tired rhetoric. In typical Bush style, the things he says and the things he does appear to be two separate things altogether.
