Fivethirtyeight.com photographer Brett Marty posted photos and a summary of his observations from traveling to campaign offices in swing states over the last two months. One of Sean Quinn's post from yesterday recapitulates much of what he has written while going on the road with Brett Marty to observe the respective ground campaigns.
During this get-out-the-vote weekend, Obama Campaign volunteers are working tirelessly in Tallahassee and throughout the rest of the country.
The Obama Campaign's vastly superior ground game has been a big reason why I have been confident of Barack's chances throughout this campaign. The astounding contrast has gotten little attention in the traditional media. But, this is the biggest story in the presidential campaign.
I'll be sparse with the blogging over the next few days because I am knocking on doors in my neighborhood and making calls to swing state voters when possible. As much as I enjoy writing these entries, I recognize that this blog's contribution to getting Barack elected is approximately nil.
This get-out-the-vote effort is the culmination of months of persuasion and data collection: Supporters have been identified, and it's now time to make sure they go to the polls. I hope to do my part.
I will be traveling to Washoe County, Nevada for Election Day. I'll be part of the Voter Protection Team. It is my hope and expectation that I my legal services will not be needed (it will be my second day practicing election law in my life), but there is value to being a deterrent. I'll be like one of those dormant missles in Alaska.
As precinct captain in my neighboorhood, I need to do my part to get the vote out. This weekend, I need to make sure that every targeted household in the precinct (of which there are about 250) gets a flyer with polling place information.
I had three volunteers help me knock on the doors of all 580 voters in he precinct. But none of the three is available this weekend.
So, when I took my 4½-year-old son out trick or treating tonight, he put on his firefighter costume, and I put on my Barack and No On 8 buttons. He asked for candy, and I asked for volunteers. It worked. My son snagged enough candy to get him through the fall and winter, and I found help at three homes. In one house, I had not previously met the owners, but we started talking after I saw their yard signs and they saw my buttons. And, I found two more people to help me with this weekend's leafleting.
Although Barack doesn't need to get out the vote in California, we have close races on Propositions 4 (proposed parental-notification requirement for minors seeking abortions) and 8 (ban on gay marriages). So it is important to get supporters to the polls in California. There is a benefit to the presidential campaign, too. The less time I spend distributing flyers, the more time I have to call swing-state voters.
After collecting supporters' cell phone numbers during the campaign, particularly for the running mate announcement and on the last night of the convention, the Obama Campaign is putting those numbers to good use.
This afternoon, I got a text message inviting me to a phone bank two miles from my home on Saturday. I suspect it won't be the last text message I receive from the campaign over the next few days.
Is there a more appropriate way for the McCain Campaign to spend its final week than to destroy the character of a highly respected academic and to try to tar Barack Obama in the process for befriending him in Hyde Park?
I almost forgot to name a weasel for last week. But, it is not too late.
Last week's weasel is Rush Limbaugh. A charter member of the axis of bullshit, Limbaugh earned the award by screaming that Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama as an act of racial solidarity and by alleging that Barack visited Hawaii to create a fake birth certificate rather than to see his dying grandmother.
How many days from now will Rush claim that Barack's upcoming electoral victory is a product of white liberal guilt?
A few months ago, I started using Facebook. A friend of mine who was the president of the College Republicans while I headed the campus chapter of the ACLU. We've both been posting various campaign-related articles and video clips on our respective Facebook pages.
Yesterday, he posted excerpts from Barack's appearance on WBEZ in 2001 that The Drudge Report, Fox News, and the McCain Campaign obsessed over. Without Bill Burton at my disposal, and in the spirit of the Obama Action Wire, I felt compelled to formulate my own response:
That's two Pinocchios for you.I just called the Philadelphia Police Department to let the cops know that your intellectual integrity is missing.
That's two Pinocchios for you.
I just called the Philadelphia Police Department to let the cops know that your intellectual integrity is missing.
While writing the last post, I lamented having few alternative names for the right-wing echo chamber. I called it the right-wing sound machine as well, but I wished that it had another moniker. This morning, I came up with one: the Axis of Bullshit.
I'll use this moniker only when the right-wing echo chamber's outrage of the day is indeed bullshit. If the basis of the outrage is truthful, then I will not malign the noise machine.
For example, if Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and The Drudge Report all argued that a progressive income tax is unwise because taxing the wealthy more heavily than the poor stifles innovation and job growth, I'll be respectful. If they claim that supporters of the progressive income tax are, ipso facto, socialists, I'll call them the Axis of Bullshit.
In this election cycle, there has been a remarkable synergy between The Drudge Report, conservative talk radio, Fox News, and the McCain Campaign. The subject of the outrage of the day shifts in tandem inside the right-wing noise machine. Whether it’s Bill Ayers, ACORN, the progressive-income-tax-is-socialist meme, Ashley Todd’s allegations, or today’s distorted interpretation of Barack Obama’s conservative views of the role of the judiciary in effecting social change, the daily talking points are quite similar in all corners of the echo chamber.Barack has been critical of Fox News’s slanted reporting several times during this campaign. In last week's New York Times magazine, Matt Bai quoted him:
“I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls,” Obama told me. “If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me, right? Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?"
Today, campaign spokesman Bill Burton, who has been following the advice Billy Joel dispenses at the end of his concerts, took it one step further. His press release is below the fold:
The sniping between McCain loyalists and Palin loyalists is unusually bad considering that the election has yet to take place. While they are blaming each other for the campaign's woes, the ultimate responsibility lies with the candidates themselves.
Despite her charisma and political acumen, Sarah Palin isn't ready to run for vice president. Although the conventional wisdom places blame on Palin's inexperience, I do not believe that her experience level disqualifies her for the position. The fundamental problem with her candidacy is her lack of knowledge about national and international issues. A more intellectually curious governor with ambitions for national office would not have been so unprepared to speak unscripted about foreign and domestic affairs.
If John McCain had vetted Sarah Palin, he would have known this and would have never have given her the opportunity to be his running mate. Likewise, if Palin were self-aware of her limitations, she would have declined the offer. Both of them failed to recognize that she is not ready for prime time. And both shouldn't blame anyone but themselves for their predicament.
It didn't take long to discover that Ashley Todd's backwards B and black eye were self-inflicted. Ordinarily, I would find it unfair to attribute the dastardly misdeeds of one staffer to the entire campaign. But, the campaign's Pennsylvania communications director sought to publicize the alleged attack.
Because the McCain Campaign in Pennsylvania tried to capitalize on the supposed incident, the matter has become yet another failed gambit for the campaign (though, in fairness, John McCain, Rick Davis, or Steve Schmidt weren't directly at fault here). Brazenly lying until the all credibility was lost with the press, nominating the unvetted and unprepared Sarah Palin, and purportedly suspending the campaign in late September are all bold moves that the McCain Campaign made and later deeply regretted.
Ashley Todd and her backwards B created a damning visual. It will be one of the lasting images of this campaign.
The Obama Campaign's vastly superior ground game has begun to pay off at the ballot box. In the South, Democrats, and in particular black Democrats, have been voting early at disproportionate rates.
This, of course, doesn't mean that the demographics of all voters will mirror those of early voters. The Obama Campaign has strongly encouraged its supporters to vote early, and it is clear that many have accepted the advice. The GOP has a time-tested get-out-the-vote operation of its own that will rev up in early November.
Nevertheless, the early-voting turnout is great news for the Obama Campaign for several reasons. First, the ground-game effort is passing this early test and showing that the Obama Campaign's get-out-the-vote methods are successful and should continue to bear fruit. The campaign will need to implore fewer supporters to go to the polls on November 4 if many of them have already cast their ballots. Second, the early-voter demographics suggest that the pollsters' turnout models have been underestimating the percentage of African Americans who will vote. Barack may well pull off an upset in Georgia and, in the best-case scenario, even Mississippi. Third, the early voting can create a sense of inevitability that keeps Republicans, many of whom weren't fans of John McCain during his supposed maverick phase, from showing up at the polls in numbers similar to 2004. Fourth, in the unlikely event that something happens to alter the trajectory of the campaign, Barack will have already banked a lot of votes.
I am very encouraged with the reports of the Obama Campaign's ground game in the South and the West. The surge in early voting increases my confidence that the investment in time and resources on the ground will translate into an astounding number of votes.
In late July, Barack Obama had a steady lead over John McCain. In the midst of an unpopular war and with workers facing a decade of stagnant wages, this was shaping up to be a good year for the Democrats. In addition, John McCain was facing an exceptionally charismatic and talented politician who had surprised the punditry by defeating the once-inevitable Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primary. The only thing keeping him within striking distance in the polls was the reluctance of many former Hillary Clinton supporters to throw their support to Barack.
Well aware that McCain was losing, the McCain Campaign went for broke. The introduction of the Celebrity Ads has gotten the most attention, and those ads did inject a sense of unseriousness into the McCain Campaign. However, I think the turning point in the McCain Campaign is best marked with two other events. First, John McCain accused Barack Obama of hoping to lose the war in Iraq in order to win the presidential campaign. This started a slew of attacks on Barack’s patriotism. Second, the McCain Campaign falsely charged Barack with canceling his planned visit to the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center because he was unable to have the press record his interactions with wounded soldiers.
This began the process of McCain alienating the Beltway press that had beloved him for many years. In addition, his foray into dishonorable campaigning broke a pledge he had made months earlier. He sacrificed the maverick myth he had spent the last nine years cultivating. And, he started losing his appeal to moderates and independents. His ill-considered selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate made these matters worse.
I believe that Barack would have won the upcoming election regardless of McCain’s campaign tactics. But, McCain’s attempts to shake of the race and hope for a miracle have paved the way for what could be a disastrous defeat for him and his fellow Republicans in Congress. By sinking his own ship so spectacularly, McCain is taking others with him. Perhaps it is best that he not be alone; he is now bereft of his dignity.
On Sunday, a group of McCain supporters heckled early voters waiting in line in Fayetteville, North Carolina. Most of the voters were black and presumed by the hecklers to be voting for Barack Obama. The badgerers' behavior was despicable--and ineffective.
I have never believed that African Americans would be deterred from voting by people screaming at them. Such intimidation efforts will certainly fail this time around. People have waited far too long for this moment. Voters will not succumb to screaming mobs.
Last Friday, I discussed a potential Colin Powell endorsement of Barack Obama with a friend. I suspected that many people would see such an endorsement as an act of racial solidarity. Rush Limbaugh and Pat Buchanan proved me correct.
Aside from John McCain's bogus suspension of his campaign last month--which caught me by surprise--is there anything hard-line conservatives say these days that isn't predictable?
Many commenters on Fox News's web site wrote that Barack's upcoming visit of his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, was a brazen political ploy. Rick Davis said that the McCain Campaign may make hay over Barack's relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright. John McCain at the last debate claimed that Barack has been engaging in class warfare by supporting a more progressive income-tax structure. The McCain Campaign and several Republican Party organizations are making false allegations about ACORD perpetrating voter fraud.
These are just a few examples of how Republicans have turned into Pavlov's dogs this election cycle. The days of being awed by Republicans' ability to win elections are over.
Sometimes it takes me a little while to choose the weasel of the week. Not this time. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, the Republican representing Minnesota's 6th district, wins the award hands down.
Rep. Bachmann appeared as a McCain surrogate on Friday's Hardball with Chris Matthews. She said that Barack Obama and liberals in Congress may be anti-American.
She isn't the only person who has stoked the culture wars in the last week. Nonetheless, Bachmann's neo-McCarthyist rant was the most outrageous.
We may have the last laugh, however. Elwyn Tinklenberg raised $620,000 in the 48 hours following Bachmann's MSNBC appearance. I have a hard time believing that the citizens of St. Cloud and Blaine will send her and her far-right ideology back to Congress for a second term. Prior to Friday's ugliness, Bachmann held a small lead in the polling in her modestly Republican-leaning district. I suspect that her appearance on Hardball will tip the race in Tinklenberg's favor.
After a week of right-wing hysterics over ACORN's voter-registration drive, including John McCain's claim at the final debate that voter fraud by ACORN might undermine that fabric of democracy, I was happy to see the Obama Campaign push back on this matter. The voter-fraud allegations are false; nevertheless, they are the subject of an inappropriate FBI investigation.
I am not concerned that the ACORN investigation will lead to voter suppression in this election. I am skeptical of the notion that a voter who submitted his registration form to an ACORN employee would be deterred from voting because the FBI is investigating ACORN.
Nevertheless, I am deeply troubled by the GOP's efforts to use the voter-fraud myth to undermine the legitimacy of Barack's mandate. That's why it was important for Obama Campaign elections lawyer Bob Bauer to assert in a conference call that the McCain Campaign was seeking to sow doubt in the electoral process.
Furthermore, by linking these voter-fraud accusations to the false allegations that culminated in the U.S. Attorney firing scandal, the Obama Campaign has taken the offensive on this issue while demonstrating that the emperorhas no clothes. The request to have the matter referred to Special Prosecutor Nora Dannehy has created a deterrent to furthering the investigation prior to the election. It also reminds the American people that this nation needs a clear break from the current administration.
