I'm getting sleepy so this is the last update for the night - tho I'll update again later in the week, tomorrow or Thursday, with the final numbers. Unless hrc drops out by then ????
NC is still missing a ton of results so it's tough to say for sure. My original bet was +15. I think it may come in +17, but am pretty sure it'll be one of those two. So either 65 or 66 more delegates here.
IN is the nail biter BUT there is only a +/- of 2 based on Gary/Lake County. Probably. There's one more CD that might flip but it's looking less and less likely. My prediction was +6 for Clinton. It now looks like +4 for Clinton and if we win the popular vote it will likely be +2 Clinton (yes, that's right, now that she's called the pop vote the "real" metric, we may take a state in pop vote but not delegates!!).
Good night, Obamamaniacs -- a fantastic night no matter how it ends!
Well, I had guessed at +6 Clinton for IN and I stand by it. BUT I don't think the worst case for him is much worse than that -- I have been a little bit conservative and there are 3 or 4 districts that could easily flip netting +2 Obama each. District by distrcit below...
There are 2 sets of delegates determined by the overall popular vote. One is an even number (16) and I think the count will be close enough that they'll split these 8/8. The other is 9 delegates and I'm giving Clinton the extra 1. But watch for a high turnout in districts 1 & 7 (Obama's strongholds) to swing that one the other way (I think it's a long shot, but we've all been calling our hearts out, so maybe!!)
As I said yesterday, with any luck I'll be liveblogging the results -> delegate allocations tomorrow night.
My original seat-of-the-pants prediction for NC had us at +18. My latest is a little more conservative at +15. This is 44-33 for the direct congressional district allocations and 21-17 for the PLEO/at-large numbers. It means an additional 65 delegates, bringing the number left to the nomination to just over 200... and that's not inlcuding Indiana.
For anyone interested, the breakdown is below. I have to hit the sack but hope to do predictions for Indiana tomorrow. Tuesday night I'll either update in the main threads or here, depending how things go, who's interested, etc.
I've been doing the very seat-of-the-pants predictions by congressional district, and think right now we are looking at:
IN +6 Clinton
NC +18 Obama
This weekend I am going to dig in a bit more into each of the congressional districts and post a high/expected/low number for each CD and also totals. Even though it doesn't much matter at this point because Sen Clinton can't possibly catch up in pledged delegates, it's fun to me to see how the math affects the outcome... I just wish I'd started playing this game earlier.
I also will try to run some popular vote scenarios. For the sake of arguments, I'll even use Clinton's ridiculous metrics, except Michigan because even a borderline delusional Clinton supporter can't really make the case than she gets to count her votes there.
I am probably not going to run any scenarios for Guam :) Not because I don't love them, too... I just don't know enough about it.
I really like this article by the Wall Street Journal, explaining who the superdelegates support and who their constituents voted for. It looks very promising for Obama!
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-delegateList0802.html
I don't know if anyone else does this, but every so often I take a peek at the other candidate's blog and comments. The first thing I notice is how very different the vibe is. But another thing that really strikes me is how often this website and all of its features are mentioned, with admiration: "How come we don't....?"
Mr Plouffe, Sen Obama, and whoever else is responsible for bringing this together -- it is a great SOLUTION and shows me that you truly understand how to GET THINGS DONE.
