http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat?bid=1&pid=282335
David Obey really did want to vote for John Edwards for president.
In fact, aside from the former candidate himself, there could be few better barometers than the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee for defining where "the Edwards vote" is headed now that his backers must choose between New York Senator Hillary Clinton and Illinois Senator Barack Obama.
And Obey has made that choice.
"For eight long years, in extreme partisanship, George W. Bush has governed this country by dividing it," the senior Democrat from Wisconsin explained in an email sent to this reporter after we spoke about the race Thursday. "(Bush) has pursued disastrous foreign and domestic policies and has stubbornly refused to listen to anyone's views except those who march in lockstep with him. America desperately needs a new president who can reach across old barriers to form new alliances that can produce a new era of optimism and a healthier respect for the needs of others. I had originally supported John Edwards for President, but with his withdrawal I am voting for Barack Obama."
Obey, who as chairman of the House Appropriations Committee is one of the most powerful Democrats on Capitol Hill, is an economic populist of the old school. No Democrat was angrier about the tax cuts for the rich and the free-trade deals that defined the economic policies of the Bush administration, and few were more frustrated with the compromises of the Clinton administration that came before it.
Obey wants a Democratic president who will work with a Democratic Congress to forge economic policies that favor Main Streets in Wisconsin cities like Wausau, Superior and Ashland rather than Wall Street. For this congressman, the choices are about a lot more more than legislative maneuvers and political positioning. Obey's one of the few really powerful people in Washington who knows the location of every union hall in his home state. And don't get him started talking about trade and economic policies unless you are ready to listen to a lengthy discourse on how successive administrations have let down the factory workers and farmers of his northern Wisconsin district.
Edwards' populist campaign struck a chord with Obey, and with a number of other old-school Democrats who have made economic concerns central to their tenures in Congress. They joined a number of key unions in backing the former senator from North Carolina.
But Edwards is now out of the race. The unions are making their moves: The Transport Workers Union, which represents 140,000 workers nationwide and has long been one of the savviest political players on economic issues, just announced that, "With Senator Edwards out of the race, our officers found it an easy decision to lend our support to the Obama campaign."
And Obey says, "People will, and should, make their own choices, but I believe that, while both remaining candidates would make outstanding presidents, Senator Obama has the best chance of giving this country the new beginning it so desperately needs."
State poll shows huge gains by Obama, McCain
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/02/MNF7UR6FE.DTL&tsp=1
A startling surge of support for Barack Obama has catapulted the Illinois senator into a virtual tie with Hillary Rodham Clinton in California's Democratic presidential primary, a Field Poll released Saturday shows.
Arizona Sen. John McCain lengthened his lead in the state Republican primary, grabbing a 32 to 24 percent edge among likely voters over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was at 13 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 10 percent.
But the Democratic numbers are the shocker. Clinton, a longtime California favorite, saw her once-commanding lead slip to two percentage points, 36 to 34 percent, in the new survey. That's down from the New York senator's 12 percentage point lead in mid-January and a 25 percentage point margin over Obama in October.
But with 18 percent of Democratic voters still undecided just days before Tuesday's primary, the election is still up for grabs, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director.
"It's an unusually volatile election, with a very high number of undecided voters and so many moving parts," he said. "It could be a very, very close election."
The head-to-head matchups between the Republican and Democratic candidates highlight both Clinton's loosening hold on California voters and McCain's growing strength in the state.
Clinton now clings to a bare 45 to 43 percent lead over McCain in a projected California presidential vote, down dramatically from her 17 percentage point margin just two weeks ago. Obama now holds a stronger 47 to 40 percent margin over the Arizona senator, but that's only half the 14 percentage point advantage he had in mid-January.
Both Democrats still run well ahead of Romney, collecting more than 50 percent of the vote in those matchups.
Obama's California campaign team said the latest polls reflect a hard-charging effort to track down potential voters in every precinct - undeterred by polls that showed the Illinois senator behind by double digits here for most of the race.
"If we hadn't laid the groundwork for the last year, we couldn't be delivering now," Debbie Mesloh, spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, said Saturday.
Averell "Ace" Smith, Clinton's California campaign manager, said the last-minute dead heat is to be expected in the nation's most populous state, which is "critical" to Clinton's effort to win the nomination.
"We always knew it would tighten," he said. "But we're incredibly confident in the organization we have to get out the vote."
The new poll shows why Obama's campaign has been targeting decline-to-state voters, who can cast ballots in the Democratic primary. While Clinton has a 37 to 31 percent lead over Obama among Democrats, Obama leads by an overwhelming 54 to 32 percent among nonpartisans, who will make up an estimated 13 percent of the primary voters.
The poll also highlights the dramatic split the Clinton-Obama battle has caused in the state's Democratic Party. Rich versus poor, young versus old, liberal versus conservative, men versus women: Each of those groups has lined up on different sides of the primary divide.
While people aged 18 to 29 back Obama by a margin of 11 percentage points, voters 65 and older support Clinton, 40 to 18 percent. Voters with household incomes of $40,000 or less back Clinton by an advantage of 11 percentage points, while those making $80,000 or more are strong Obama supporters.
Obama attracts voters who call themselves liberal, who have gone to graduate school and who are from the Bay Area, which backs him 41 to 31 percent. Clinton's strength is among conservatives and moderates, those with a high school education and residents of sprawling Los Angeles County, where she holds a 42 to 34 percent lead.
There's also a broad ethnic and gender gap between the campaigns. While white voters are split evenly between Clinton and Obama, the Illinois senator, whose late father was a black African, has a 55 to 19 percent lead among black voters, while Latinos back Clinton 52 to 19 percent.
Among men, Obama holds a 13 percentage point lead, the same advantage Clinton holds among women.
But for Clinton, even her good numbers show some ominous changes. In mid-January, the Field Poll showed her with a 19 percentage point lead among women and a huge 59 to 19 percent advantage with Latino voters. In two weeks, much of that backing has melted away.
While part of the reason for the huge number of undecided voters is last week's departure of John Edwards from the race, most of it seems to be honest angst among Democrats pressed to make a choice between two favored candidates, DiCamillo said.
"This is the Democratic rank and file having a hard time making a choice, because they like them both," he said.
On the Republican side, McCain continues to make an astounding comeback in a state where he was virtually given up for dead just months ago. He's moved from 12 percent in December to 22 percent in mid-January to 32 percent and the lead in the most recent poll.
"McCain's had a very good month," DiCamillo said. "He also benefits from Huckabee, who peels off some votes from Romney."
McCain's lead comes courtesy of a strong showing among moderate and moderately conservative Republicans, where he holds a 39 to 16 percent advantage over Romney.
Steve Schmidt, a senior strategist for McCain, said the new poll numbers reflect a national surge for the Arizona senator.
"From California to Massachusetts, Sen. McCain is on the move and getting ready for a big night on Tuesday," said Schmidt.
But Romney spokeswoman Sarah Pompeii said the latest figures will not stop them from pushing hard in California.
So much of the election still depends on who turns out to vote on Tuesday, which DiCamillo admitted is the hardest thing to project.
"There are cautionary notes," he said. "With those big differences among (Democratic) subgroups, an unexpectedly large turnout by any one of them can shift the final result. We don't know if Obama's surge will continue or if something will arrest it in the days before the election."
Both Democratic campaigns were working hard in the Bay Area on Saturday. Chelsea Clinton, the 27-year-old daughter of Sen. Clinton, spoke Saturday to hundreds of students at Oakland's Mills College, while Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry was in San Francisco to boost Obama's campaign.
Kerry was pleased Obama was closing the gap in California, but warned that "we've got to try even harder over the next few days because there are all of these absentee ballots out there - people who voted a few weeks ago when they thought the race was a foregone conclusion (for Clinton). It's proven not to be."
The poll was based on a telephone survey of 511 likely voters in the Democratic primary and 481 likely voters in the Republican primary and was conducted between Jan. 25 and Feb. 1. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points among Democrats, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points among Republicans and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points among general election voters.
Chronicle staff writer Joe Garofoli contributed to this report. E-mail the writers at jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com and cmarinucci@sfchronicle.com.
From Financial Times
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7676eb10-d068-11dc-9309-0000779fd2ac.html
Barack Obama said yesterday he had raised a record-breaking $32m in January, a powerful demonstration of his ability to stay in the race beyond next week's Super Tuesday vote and all the way to the Democratic convention in August if -necessary.
Mr Obama's burgeoning war chest enabled him to announce yesterday that he was already running commercials in states that will vote after Super Tuesday. Mrs Clinton has not yet released her fund-raising totals.
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To bad we won't see HRC numbers before super tuesday, it'd be nice to let everyone see how little she has brought in from all her big $$$ contributers compared to our nickels and dimes!!!
Why Barack Obama?
Eight years ago I watched in awe as our current President beat out John McCain in the primaries. How could people be so blind? I've always been an independent and try to pick the candidate that isn't only intelligent, honest and stern in their beliefs, but the candidate who is sincere.
I then watched President Bush beat out Al Gore. I thought Bush looked like a monkey in the debates only to hear the "reporters" call several of them a tie.
4 years later he beats out Kerry, a two tour Vietnam vet.
I spent the last eight years getting more disenfranchised with our Government. In early 2004 this started to turn. I watched a young no-name in Illinois light a fire. I listened to him speak and was warmed inside.
Consider my awe today. I spent last year thinking, "oh great whose going to be our next President? Probably Hillary Clinton...." The same old hooey from the same old con game. Who decides who runs this Country anyways? DO we???
Why do we always go to the same old trough for our Leadership? WHY do we accept this? President Bush and then his son. President Clinton and then his wife. Are we so strapped for guidance...is this Nation so full of sheep that these are the only Shepherds we have to pick from?
Barack Obama was/is the answer. I listen to him speak and it isn't the empty rhetoric others spew out. He doesn't come to us as someone that expects the Presidency as their birth right. He doesn't sit on the poles, not daring to speak or make a decision on what's right at the time.
9/11 happens, the Nations is in terror. What a great time to use that fear, let us enact the patriot act, let's go to war with Iraq! What happens when you let your passion rule your reason? just this. We watched a father drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait. What did we accomplish? We killed a bunch of Iraqi soldiers and let the slime that gave the orders in power. Why?
Several years pass and the son takes the mantle from the father. With almost no decent intelligence/proof We get pulled into war with Iraq again. Justice is finally brought to Saddam, albeit delayed. I guess the time George Bush spent in the National Guard really squared him away on what it is to get mired down in fighting where you can't recognize who is the good guy who is the bad. In a land where people strap bombs to the selves and try to take as many with them as possible..... Where making IED's is a hobby.....
Each and every week we lose soldiers over there. How much time/money/lives must we spend before they can stand on their own? Are our soldiers lives worth so little they can be spent as a buffer while a bunch of greedy leaders fight over scraps? TO many people grubbing for power, to many uneducated people being prayed upon by the religious zealots.
When this Nation was reeling, and no one wanted to make waves one of a few voted against the war. That man was Barack Obama. (thank you Mr. Obama.) What kind of strength of character, what kind of courage did that take?
I sit here and watch and hope each day he runs the political gauntlet. Not taking money from lobbyists, (I laud Obama and Edwards for this.) Not tumbling to the smear tactics of the Clintons. Avoiding Florida as per his pledge.
Can anyone doubt the sincerity when he speaks? I've listened to Mit Romney and Hillary Clinton. They both sound as if they just stepped out of a grease trap!
I was so worried (and still am) how he can take on the Giant that is the Clinton election machine. I sit and watch as people (and some I talk to) are voting because they want a woman in office. They are blinded by sex or race.
Well we all do what we can to bring people into the Obama fold. I was never so Joyous as when Caroline Kennedy came out and endorsed Senator Obama. I'd never recalled her doing any such thing in the past. REJOICE!
To me it has never been a hard choice. This Country needs a change. We need a young firebrand to get in there and chew some tuckus. In the days to come I hope beyond hope Barack Obama goes the distance. I fear even thinking of him not, of where we will go then...
I'll do what I can to help this man get elected. I try each day to educate the ignorance which seems to abound. I hope you all are doing the same.
Thank you Barack Obama for making the sacrifice. I can only guess how much of a trial this is for someone who cares deeply for his family. Know that is appreciated what you are doing for your Country.
-rtr
